But the unexpected turmoil in Senkaku / Diaoyus could trigger a military confrontation between China and the United States.

Concerns about a possible confrontation escalated last week with announcements from Japanese coast guards that Chinese government ships have been seen in waters near the Senakaku / Diaoyu Islands every day since mid-April, setting a new record for the number of consecutive days.

On Friday, the apparition reached 67 consecutive days.

Take a strong attitude

Responding to the increasing presence of Chinese people, Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, reiterated Tokyo’s determination at a press conference last Wednesday.

“The Senkaku Islands are under our control and there is no doubt that our territory is historically and international law. It is very serious that this activity continues. We will respond to the Chinese side firmly and calmly,” Suga said.

In a statement Friday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry echoed the sentiment of the Japanese government, from the opposite perspective.

“Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands are an inherent part of Chinese territory, and it is our right to conduct patrols and law enforcement activities in these waters.”

On the surface, the move, proposed by the Ishigaki city council, where the islands are managed, seems harmless.

According to Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, the council wants to separate the islands from the densely populated parts of Ishigaki to streamline administrative practices.

But in a resolution before the Ishigaki City Council, the city “confirmed the islands were part of Japanese territory.”

This is the type of language that tickles in Beijing.

“Changing administrative appointments at this time can only make disputes more complicated and carry more crisis risks,” Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the Chinese Foreign Relations University, told the Global Times.

A vote in Ishigaki is expected at a council meeting Monday.

Before last week, the latest “crisis” in the islands occurred in 2012.

That year, Japan nationalized privately owned islands to ward off planned sales to the then governor of Tokyo, a hard-line nationalist who reportedly hoped to develop the islands.

The demonstration turned violent when protesters threw rubble at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, searched Japanese shops and restaurants and overturned Japanese cars.

In a vivid illustration of how the islands burned into Chinese consciousness, a Chinese man was beaten to a coma by his compatriot just because he was driving a Toyota Corolla.

History of contention

China says its claims to the islands reached the 1400s, when they were used as staging points for Chinese fishermen.

However, Japan said it did not see traces of Chinese control over the islands in the 1885 survey, so officially recognized them as Japan’s sovereign territory in 1895.

A group of settlers produce dried fish and collect fur, with islands that have more than 200 inhabitants at one point, according to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

Japan then sold the islands in 1932 to descendants of the original migrants, but the factory failed around 1940 and the islands were eventually abandoned. Japan surrendered at the end of World War II in 1945 only served to further obscure this problem.

The islands were managed by US occupation forces after the war. But in 1972, Washington returned them to Japan as part of their withdrawal from Okinawa.

Self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing considers a Chinese province, also claims ownership of the chain.

And objections to the administrative reclassification of the islands in Taiwan shows the depth that connects each of the complainant islands.

Although the islands are uninhabited, there are economic interests involved, according to the CFR.

The islands “have potential oil and natural gas reserves, are close to famous shipping routes, and are surrounded by rich fishing grounds,” he said.

What could trigger a clash

That all adds to the potential problems, said William Choong, a senior colleague at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore

“If a Chinese fishing crew, coast guard, or military member lands on the Senkakus, then the Japanese Coast Guard will definitely try to move them in law enforcement actions. But given that China does not recognize Japanese claims, it is certainly possible that Beijing can see this as escalation, which might result in a substantial military response from China, “the AMTI website said.

And with an ironic nod to what happened in the East China Sea, Beijing reclassified the claims of the island in the South China Sea, making the Spratly / Nansha and Paracel / Xisha islands more prominent in the country’s government hierarchy.

Choong believes it is unwise to think Senkakus / Diaoyus was not marked for the same attention at some point.

“The question is not whether China, which is now the target of a full press trial by the Americans, wants to challenge Japan over the islands. The question is when, and how? This is what keeps Japanese (and American) policymakers awake at night,” Choong wrote.