LONDON – Unemployment in the UK is widely expected to reach levels not seen since the mid-1980s over the coming months as a result of a recession caused by the corona virus.
Although the number of people officially labeled unemployment remained stable in April, the first full month after closing, analysts said Tuesday, it was only a matter of time before the full impact of the economic collapse was seen.
That’s because the efforts of the British government to protect the labor market from economic damage due to closure will soon be over. Under the Job Retention Scheme, he has paid up to 80% of the salary of retained workers, up to $ 3,150 a month.
Many companies refrain from cutting jobs, with 1.1 million employers so far taking advantage of this scheme by relaxing 9.1 million people at a cost to the government of $ 26 billion.
Given the colossal costs involved, the head of the Ministry of Finance Rishi Sunak said that starting in August, the company had to start contributing, and the scheme would be closed two months later.
The end of this scheme has raised concerns about a surge in unemployment to potentially more than 3 million for the first time since 1987. In April, the internationally recognized unemployment measure in the UK was 1.34 million, or 3.9%, according to figures. published on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics.
Some of the leave workers will return to their jobs on Monday reopening of non-essential shops in Britain for the first time in almost three months.
But it is clear that not everyone will be able to come back given that many companies tend to go bankrupt as a result of lockouts. Last week’s figures show The UK economy shrank by 20% in April alone.
“While this policy softens blows for workers who have fallen in difficult times in all industries, some unskilled workers will end up unemployed in time, especially in service industries such as retail and travel where demand will remain structurally lower after this pandemic has going well, “said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank.
Deep dive into the figures from the statistical agency shows that major changes are imminent. In particular, he noted that the number of people in the UK claiming work-related benefits increased by 23.3% monthly in May to 2.8 million. The so-called claimant count – which includes people who work with reduced or long-term income and those who are truly unemployed – is 125.9% higher than in March, the month when lockout restrictions were imposed.
“If the public health crisis is just beginning to subside, today’s figures show that the unemployment crisis has just begun,” said Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
He said that unemployment rose faster than during the Great Depression of the 1930s and was set to top 3 million this summer.
Trade unions and employers are urging more support from the government. Sunak is expected to announce a large fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks.
“Unemployment falls unevenly in society and leaves the scars of the last generation,” said Matthew Percival, director of people and skills at the Confederation of British Industry.
“The urgent priority must be to create jobs that are inclusive today, with turbo filling a sustainable industry in the future,” he added.