Pandemic does not help political deadlock. The negotiation team cannot meet physically, only relying on video conferencing tools. The next round of virtual talks began Tuesday, but sources on both sides say this has damaged the quality of negotiations, because individuals cannot split up for private chats on how to solve complicated problems. And the scale of the coronavirus crisis has overshadowed the urgency of the Brexit talks.

Johnson must now spend June with one eye on complicated and full negotiations with the world’s biggest trade bloc, while also overseeing the response to the country’s worst public health crisis in decades.

The two sides agreed that June would be used as a period to ponder whether there was a visible agreement, or whether they should respectfully put a bullet in the conversation and prepare a scenario without agreement.

No agreement is universally accepted as the worst possible outcome. The British economy is very dependent on imports from Europe. This maximum disruption to trade will affect the supply chain – making a living hell for businesses, such as car manufacturers, who depend on them and lead to potential shortages of basic household needs, such as food, for consumers. Numerous studies have predicted that it will be a major economic blow to households and the nation in general.

Even though Britain or the European Union claims it does not want this outcome, negotiators fear that political deadlock means the more likely it is. “The European Union is being unreasonable, demanding that if we want a free trade agreement then at our expense we must continue to follow EU rules,” according to a British government official, who is not authorized to speak in notes about ongoing negotiations. “Obviously, they know we can’t accept that. If we do, what’s the point of Brexit?” said the same source.

The rules they mean are a very difficult part of the negotiation known as the “balanced playing arena”. This is basically an agreement about certain rules and standards designed to stop business on the one hand, reducing business on the other. The EU single market is the largest economic bloc in the world. The level playing field is overseen by the courts and institutions of the European Union. And if Britain wants tariff-free access there after the transition period – like Johnson’s position last fall when he reached the initial Brexit agreement with the EU – then the EU will need it to register with those rules.

Level playing fields are not the only areas where Brussels and London are not facing each other. There are differences of opinion about fishing rights, security and governance, and what actually happened on the island of Ireland. However, negotiators both in London and Brussels are convinced that the long overdue crisis caused by the towering edge of the cliff will drag the two sides together. The same cannot be said for differences in the level playing field.

Britain has said it will drop its ambitions for tariff-free trade with the EU if the EU lowers its level of demand. The EU is not interested in this idea because it believes that there is not enough time in the transition to negotiate on tariffs.

Theoretically, Johnson could buy more time if he wanted to take this route. He has until 31 June to request an extension of the transition period. However, it will be so politically poisonous that it does not currently seem to have occurred to Johnson’s advisers. This Brexit debate poisoning made the agreement impossible, because any capitulation that was felt would make Johnson in trouble with his supporters.

In addition, this pandemic is strangely creating opportunities to cover the sizeable negative impact Brexit might have on the British economy. “There is a certain logic to saying let’s deal with both of these economic disturbances at once,” said Anand Menon, director of Britain’s Changing European tank.

“From the supply chain to the way all economies are run, everything will change due to this virus. So, even though those two things aren’t really related and might make the other worse, I can see some political logic in doing everything at the same time . “

Even better, the pandemic creates space for the government to throw money at every large bump in the road, if the worst happens.

“Certain parts of the economy will be affected by Brexit and coronavirus,” said Raoul Ruparel, Brexit’s adviser to Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. “If Johnson spends government money to soften the impact in these fields, he might find there is less opposition than if he only spends money to offset the Brexit impact alone, because there is a far greater unity across the political spectrum about the need for spending. like that to help with recovery from Covid-19. “

In Brussels, member states agreed that there was no agreement at the end of last year. “We are not emotionally investing in British decisions anymore,” said a European diplomat based in Brussels. “This is a country outside the European Union, we focus on recovering our coronavirus,” said the same source.

This level of non-compliance is not uncommon in EU institutions, where an official working on negotiations said with a shrug that “Britain is free to do whatever it wants” and that Brussels is prepared for a “dead end” at the end of June.

The EU has believed for some time to overcome shocks without a better deal than Britain. “The European Union knows it is in a stronger position. Yes, there is no bad deal for them, but it is far worse for Britain,” said Thomas Cole, a former EU negotiator. “It’s true that the two sovereign parties are the same but they are very aware that they don’t need to make the type of concessions that the British need to make.”

And as in the UK, coronaviruses might make calculations without certain agreements easier for the EU to swallow in the long run. “Paradoxically, it might make aspects of an agreement more manageable for the European Union,” said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Center. “Companies that want to reduce their operations throughout post-Covid Europe might decide it’s easier to actually close British offices and factories. This actually solves a number of problems, in some ways.”

Of course, neither side wants an agreement and both of them are still telling reporters that they are committed to breaking the deadlock and arriving at a mutually beneficial solution. However, the political mistakes that are happening right now are likely to get worse along with the passing of June, if the history of Brexit is something that happens.

If the conversation fails, both parties will hope that the other party will try to show the finger and play the victim. This might be suitable for Johnson politically in the short term, because he plays the role of a brave leader who opposed European oppression. But, as Menon points out, the post-Covid world has been searching for a messy and unpredictable place.

“Everyone is angry with China, and God knows what will happen in the US election,” he said. “Does Britain really want to clash with Europe when it emerges from a pandemic and into a brave new future?”

So, if Boris Johnson seriously wants to avoid a deal, the combination of talks is frozen, both parties are distracted by a pandemic and this pressing June deadline makes a bad start to the summer.