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Biden goes ahead of the 2016 Clinton pace



Former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the First State Democratic Dinner in Dover, Delaware, on March 16, 2019.

What is the point: Almost every time I explain that Biden is leading Trump, someone will definitely bring up “but what about 2016.” That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

This was one of the first times during an election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 speed in the fight against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed national gap quickly with Clinton when he conquered Republican opponents Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential election. Clinton’s average advantage shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half of April to 4 points in the first half of May to only 1 point in a poll that was completed four years ago between May 16 to May 23.
In terms of high quality individual polls, you don’t need to look any further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump with 3 points in a Fox News poll came out four years ago between May 16 – May 23. Now, Biden is up 8 points in the same poll.
Indeed, Clinton also uses high-quality direct telephone ABC News / Washington Post poll four years ago it was finished between May 16 – May 23.

Biden in particular has not participated in a direct interview poll so far this year.

Even though Clinton will regain some of his profits in June 2016, the fact that the race got very close at this point four years ago is an indication that voters are rather nervous. This shows that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally, or, at the very least, that Trump could become close enough nationally to win in an election college.

Biden’s superiority, of course, is the most stable of all time. His superiority never fell to a point or anywhere near. It’s been consistent at or right around 6 points, like this week. If you make a 95% confidence interval around the 2016 and 2020 individual polls, the 2016 race is about 1.5 times more volatile to date.

But it’s not only margins that are important to check. Look at the percentage of votes.

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The reason why Biden’s advantage is so vast compared to Clinton’s is because he ran a little more than 5 points ahead of where Clinton was in terms of percentage of votes. Biden is slightly greater than 48%, while Clinton is slightly less than 43%.

Even when Clinton’s leadership widened in June, he never reached 48% in the polls. He had to take on more voters who were late in deciding that their leaders felt safe than Biden.

Interestingly, Trump actually drew around the same percentage of votes in the poll as at the end of May 2016. Without rounding, he only walked around 0.4 points worse.

There are many voters who have not yet voted or a third party at the end of May 2016. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up to 89.5% of the vote on average. Clinton and Trump increased to 84.9%.

Keep in mind, only a few of the polls conducted four years ago were completed between May 16 – May 23 including Libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. Focusing only on those who did vote showed Clinton and Trump deadlocked just under 39%. That is, Trump is tied to Clinton even because he has a lower share of votes than he has in the 2020 poll now. Major party candidates together add up to 77% to the poll asking about Johnson.

When elections have not been decided and third parties are high in the polls, that means greater uncertainty. Third-party candidates tend to deflate during the election year. Combining third-party and undecided voter blocks gives large party candidates larger groups to take voters from.
In other words, Trump had more room four years ago to take over. And, in fact, Trump won over the strength of his support among voters who voted last month.

More Americans have said that they are willing to vote for Biden in the most likely electoral battle than they ever did against Clinton at any point in the last six months of the campaign.

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The obvious question moving forward is whether Biden can follow suit. So far, he and his basement campaign face challenges.

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Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.



Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.



Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

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