When the president said he would dissolve parliament and call early elections if the state budget failed, the chances of this scenario were very high. Whoever bets that Marcelo’s prophecy will come true, a lot of money will be made at this rate. Included himself, because Marcelo never tired of saying that he meant the opposite effect when he spoke to the country about this danger, which will lead us to enter a political cycle with many mini-cycles inside, with crises that have the behavior of cherries that seem to be one whole. after another. another. And this is one of the prophecies that has everything for self-realization in a highly fragmented parliament, when old parties give way to new parties that are more unstable and more eager to return to participation in elections again in order to strengthen their electoral weight.
Marcelo’s third prophecy is that the election results will ultimately lead us to an informal Central Bloc, modeled after what he did with Guterres, as the only way to ensure that the country is governed. For a year or two, necessarily for two budgets approved next year, for 2021 and 2022.
Self-fulfilling prophecy creates an expectation that, even if it may be false, leads to behavior that makes it true. In Marcelo’s case, false expectation is replaced by perceived desire, and the opposite is likely to happen. This was the case with the state records that the president wanted to approve, and with the legislative branch that he wanted to fulfill, and ultimately it will be with the stability he hopes to see after the January 30 elections, in the highest desire of Marcelo, with the blocks securely on the right and left.
Having made public the political blackmail he had committed against the PKP and the Bloc, the president wished that at least the communists, who once again lost at the ballot box, would retreat from the abyss. He didn’t bother to understand that, in view of the accumulation of defeats associated with the presidential threat, the PCP had no choice but to disintegrate, so as not to continue the applause until the moment when it stopped looking to the future. mirror until there was no point in the existence of the communist party.
By pushing all parties towards elections, convinced that a useful vote on the left in the PS and on the right in the PSD will ultimately give one bloc a comfortable majority with a stronger leadership, the president risks getting an arithmetic majority. transformation is a political impossibility due to excessive weakness on the part of any of these majority. In the case of the left, because the return of the PKP or Blok to a clever device can only happen with a benefit to the cause, even if they leave with significant losses in the ballot boxes. In the case of the right, even with the victory of the SDP and with an increase in the number of votes compared to 2019, no majority is possible without a significant strengthening of Chega.
The outcome of the municipal elections, more than fiscal policy, has loosened the last of the screws holding this ingenious invention in place.
In addition to racist ideas in André Ventura’s party, one should fear the permanent instability that is part of the DNA of those whose ideology is opportunism. As we could see recently, when they wanted to overthrow the government of the Azores just because the leader of Chega felt neglected by the leader of the PSD.
A more fragmented parliament, with new parties gaining weight in the half-cycle, will worsen the conditions for governance, pushing the two largest parties in the system into each other’s arms if all other attempts to make government viable fail. The problem is that from the moment we all know this is about to happen, there will be more and more fighting against that decision in the campaign. For PS and PSD to grow, they need a bipolar campaign in which they can appeal for a beneficial vote, but the idea of an informal central bloc in the forge has provided all other parties with a better case for fighting bipolarization.
The result of the local elections, more than the budgetary policy, made it possible to loosen the last of the screws holding the device, and it is impossible with a reasonable probability to expect a government decision (even if temporary) stronger than the Central Bloc (if only informally). If that decision doesn’t work, then Marcelo, a president who loves stability, risks going down in history as the head of state who helped make the country ungovernable when he allowed Antonio Costa to anticipate an election that will now be much less difficult for PS. than any other time ahead.
Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.
The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
Top News4 years ago
Top News4 years ago
Tech4 years ago
