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What if Putin presses the nuclear “button”?

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Vladimir Putin’s address to the Russian people, which was broadcast on Wednesday morning, left a clear threat to Western countries: “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will definitely use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia” and our people. “The use of nuclear weapons is a scenario that Putin has been talking about since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Moscow’s decision to launch a nuclear strike would be an unprecedented situation. For this reason, it is difficult to predict how an attack will be carried out or what its main targets will be. Even in the face of all the unpredictability, as explained Telegraphanalysts who follow Russian nuclear rhetoric have outlined several possible scenarios.

One possibility is that Putin decides to continue nuclear strikes against limited targets located in Ukraine. According to Lawrence Friedman, a specialist in military studies at King’s College London, critical infrastructure in cities could be a potential target.

If Putin wanted to sow fear in Ukraine and the West, he could also point to Snake Island, a mythical island where a small group of Ukrainians faced the Russian fleet, a nuclear attack that demonstrates Russia’s might. This option, the expert believes, could lead to a humiliating situation if the bomb did not explode for some reason.

According to Andrey Baklitsky, a specialist at the UN Disarmament Research Institute, there is a detail in Putin’s speech that suggests a different scenario: the Russian president said he would promote nuclear weapons only “if the territorial integrity” of Russia is “compromised.” “. The announcement comes as Russia prepares to hold annexation referendums in Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk.

“These statements go beyond the Russian nuclear doctrine, which only suggests that Russia is the first to use it in a conventional war, when the very existence of the state is threatened,” experts explain.

After holding referendums in the Ukrainian regions, Moscow could regard the offensive actions of the Kyiv forces to return the territory as a pretext for launching a nuclear offensive.

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Can a threat be a bluff?

Putin emphasized that the use of nuclear weapons “it’s not a bluff”, but most Western leaders do not seem to be very worried about this possibility. Also because this is not the first time the Russian president has used the nuclear arsenal as a threat to Europe and the United States.

A few days after the invasion of Ukraine began, Putin ordered Western countries to interfere in the achievement of Russian goals.will suffer consequences they could never have imagined in their history“.

Russian propaganda networks themselves have also shared threats of nuclear annihilation against Western countries. Just this week, TV presenter Olga Skabeeva said that Moscow should have launched an attack during the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II in London in order to create as much chaos as possible.

Some leaders have already vowed to be ready to “press the nuclear button” if the Russian threat materializes. Liz Truss, Prime Minister of Great Britain, admitted that she could have made such a decision during her reign. Joe Biden also believes that Putin’s use of nuclear weaponscompletely change the war to something not seen since WWII“.

There is an article in the NATO Treaty that states that an attack on one country is an attack on all – the famous Article 5. Even if Russia decides to send nuclear weapons to the territory of Ukraine, the radiation can reach Poland – a NATO country – and start the activation process of this article. However, this decision must be unanimous. In the entire history of NATO, it was activated only once: after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001.

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A nuclear strike could also put Russia in an even lonelier position than it is now. While the Western countries sanctioned Moscow and publicly rejected the invasion, China and India remained neutral from the very beginning of the invasion. However, both countries are beginning to seek to distance themselves from the conflict.

This Wednesday, after Putin’s speech, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called for a ceasefire through dialogue to end the conflict. The statements show some dissatisfaction on the part of China with the possibility that Russia decides to go nuclear.

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Vladimir Putin has delayed the invasion of Ukraine at least three times.

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Putin has repeatedly consulted with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the invasion, Europa Press told Ukraine’s chief intelligence director Vadim Skibitsky.

According to Skibitsky, it was the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), which is responsible for counterintelligence and espionage work, that put pressure on Gerasimov and other military agencies to agree to launch an offensive. .

However, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services, the FSB considered that by the end of February sufficient preparations had already been made to guarantee the success of the Russian Armed Forces in a lightning invasion.

However, according to Kyiv, the Russian General Staff provided the Russian troops with supplies and ammunition for only three days, hoping that the offensive would be swift and immediately successful.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence also emphasized the cooperation of local residents, who always provided the Ukrainian authorities with up-to-date information about the Russian army, such as the number of soldiers or the exact location of troops.

The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).

At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.

The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.

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Life sentence for former Swedish official for spying for Russia

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A Stockholm court on Monday sentenced a former Swedish intelligence officer to life in prison for spying for Russia, and his brother to at least 12 years in prison. In what is considered one of the most serious cases in Swedish counterintelligence history, much of the trial took place behind closed doors in the name of national security.

According to the prosecution, it was Russian military intelligence, the GRU, who took advantage of the information provided by the two brothers between 2011 and their arrest at the end of 2021.

Peyman Kia, 42, has held many senior positions in the Swedish security apparatus, including the army and his country’s intelligence services (Säpo). His younger brother, Payam, 35, is accused of “participating in the planning” of the plot and of “managing contacts with Russia and the GRU, including passing on information and receiving financial rewards.”

Both men deny the charges, and their lawyers have demanded an acquittal on charges of “aggravated espionage,” according to the Swedish news agency TT.

The trial coincides with another case of alleged Russian espionage, with the arrest of the Russian-born couple in late November in a suburb of Stockholm by a police team arriving at dawn in a Blackhawk helicopter.

Research website Bellingcat identified them as Sergei Skvortsov and Elena Kulkova. The couple allegedly acted as sleeper agents for Moscow, having moved to Sweden in the late 1990s.

According to Swedish press reports, the couple ran companies specializing in the import and export of electronic components and industrial technology.

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The man was again detained at the end of November for “illegal intelligence activities.” His partner, suspected of being an accomplice, has been released but remains under investigation.

According to Swedish authorities, the arrests are not related to the trial of the Kia brothers.

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Ukraine admitted that Russia may announce a general mobilization

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“They can strengthen their positions. We understand that this can happen. At the same time, we do not rule out that they will announce a general mobilization,” Danilov said in an interview with the Ukrainska Pravda online publication.

Danilov believed that this mobilization would also be convened “to exterminate as many as possible” of Russian citizens, so that “they would no longer have any problems on their territory.”

In this sense, Danilov also reminded that Russia has not given up on securing control over Kyiv or the idea of ​​the complete “destruction” of Ukraine. “We have to be ready for anything,” he said.

“I want everyone to understand that [os russos] they have not given up on the idea of ​​destroying our nation. If they don’t have Kyiv in their hands, they won’t have anything in their hands, we must understand this,” continued Danilov, who also did not rule out that a new Russian offensive would come from “Belarus and other territories.” .

As such, Danilov praised the decision of many of its residents who chose to stay in the Ukrainian capital when the war broke out in order to defend the city.

“They expected that there would be panic, that people would run, that there would be nothing to protect Kyiv,” he added, referring to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).

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At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.

The Russian invasion, justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russia’s security, was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing political and economic sanctions on Russia.

The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.

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