1. There will be two subgroups that will benefit if the NHLPA ratifies a renegotiated and renewed bargaining agreement, which will be presented to the union for ratification as part of a comprehensive return package that will include hub-city locations and health-related coronavirus protocols. / safety for the Stanley Cup training camp and tournament.
And they are: 1) Owners who don’t really care if each team wins; and, 2) Players with long-term contracts who don’t really care if each team wins.
2. Because a flat cap at $ 81.5 million today for the next two or three years (there is talk of a $ 1 million cap increase in Year 3) will strangle competitors who have historically spent the upper ceiling, and must compete with unlimited arbitration and free agents without delay without stable luxury, even if moderate, increasing shopping space. The bottom line: hats increased from $ 73 million in 2016-17 to $ 81.5 million over the next three seasons, jumped 11, 64 percent.
Less cover space not only means less space to add players, but also less to maintain them. The team will be forced to make a purchase. (Sources have told The Post that amnesty purchases are hardly, if at all, part of the conversation). More players will be banished to the free agent market. The team will offer fewer long-term offers. Thus, there will be more arbitration hearings and more players in the market.
Adopting a flat hat will reduce escrow, but players can do it anytime by narrowing the band and adjusting the ceiling, say 5 percent above the midpoint rather than the current 15 percent. Delaying 10 percent of their salaries next season will also make it easier for escrow, with money to be paid after the new NHL media rights agreement also reduces the burden.
And although a flat hat will benefit men in a long-term deal, players who come with free rights over the next three seasons constitute a large majority of union membership. Indeed, 572 players are currently eligible to reach free agents during the next three offseason, 335 are not restricted and 144 are eligible for arbitration. (I counted using Capfriendly.com data. If there is an error, it’s mine and not the website.)
Thirteen teams were spent closing (or more, using long-term injury exceptions) for 2019-20, with the other six coming within $ 2 million from the limit. With a flat hat, where will all the free agents go?
Or will we only see an acceleration into the caste system where the roster will consist of one percent of hockey players, entry level players and minimum wage workers?
3. Nobody knows about 2020-21 income. So the NHL admitted it had to violate its principle of linking hats with revenue, because if it was held, next season’s hats could be as low as $ 63 million with a cap of 2021-22 with what, $ 30 million? So what? The team cannot make a game’s full name.
So they have arrived at the split-the-baby option to maintain the current hat while limiting escrow to give players more time to pay off their debts this season and to keep them from facing difficult situations that are indescribable in the two years per CBA now .
4. But what should be done by both parties is to negotiate the termination of the hard-cap system and move to soft cap. The soft cap will be $ 63 million (or whatever the calculations are) with the team being allowed to spend, say, up to $ 83 million on a one-plus-one luxury tax. Escrow will stop at a soft hat. For every dollar spent above that, the team will donate a second dollar for revenue sharing.
It will end 50-50, yes, but as I have said for almost two decades, gross percentage is a fake concept. The team does not pool their income or salary / expenses. There is no room for 50-50 if it inhibits growth, as it will. NHL will stagnate. Luxury tax will function as a stimulus.
5. The NHL has approached this as if it has all the time in the world, and it happens, but no longer. The deadline is nearing if the training camp will indeed open July 19. The players will have 48-72 hours to munch on the many packages and choose. Both sides hope the vote can end on the weekend.
6. The rise of the virus in most of this country (Who would have guessed?) NHL retreats from Vegas as a central city. Chicago is believed to be still running, but it is very likely that tournaments – if played – will be staged in Toronto and Edmonton.
If the two hub cities were in Canada, it would create significant savings for NHL around 28 cents. The league takes all team costs in place.
7. If an agreement is reached, then it is a concern about keeping players and personnel officers safe and sound. If membership – which seems less divided than uncertain – votes on the proposal, the tournament will be in considerable danger.
What’s more, there is the prospect of being cold between the sides which leads to depression the next two seasons before the lockout. In other words, even more good time.
