The first stage of economic punishment comes as part of the new enactment Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is expected to trigger the most extensive and aggressive economic punishment ever imposed on Syria, which has the potential to target its energy, construction and banking sectors. The bill was named after a former photographer for the Syrian military, codenamed Caesar, who leaked a photograph containing photographs showing prisoners dead and mutilated in Assad prison.

The Caesar Act, a bipartisan Congressional law, has received widespread support from the Syrian diaspora community, many of whom were pushed into exile by Assad’s brutal repression of most peaceful protests that began in 2011. Assad has repeatedly been accused of war crimes and crimes towards humanity. in his military campaign to crush Syrian armed opposition. He is also widely believed to be behind various chemical attacks in rebel-held areas. The Assad government has repeatedly denied the allegations.

“The (Syrian) economy has become something similar to the West Bank economy, an economy that relies on aid,” Syrian analyst and non-resident scholar at the DC-based Middle East Institute Karam Shaar told CNN. “This is not really a functional economy. Basically something that survives only because the West continues to inject money into it.”

US sanctions threatened to cut cash injections from donations and remittances that kept the country afloat. Because the Caesar Act includes secondary sanctions – punishing non-US people and entities for transactions with the regime-held Syria – they are likely to create “phobias” and “panic from banks” around dealing with Syria, Shaar said, strangling financial transactions to country.

“When you have actions that destroy a country’s exchange rate – and you know that 60% of the input to the pharmaceutical industry is actually imported – you influence drugs,” Shaar said. “The Caesar Act will affect everything.”

“Unless the Syrian regime accepts to negotiate, I project famine and it will be terrible.”

Tensions in Lebanon have reached a peak in recent weeks, as the currency continues to spread, triggering riots across the country. On Tuesday night, the leader of Iranian-backed political and militant group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, gave a fiery televized speech that vowed to sustain Syria economically and called on Lebanon to reject US pressure to abide by the Caesar Law.

Nasrallah also accused the Trump administration of “encircling” the Lebanese economy in an effort to suppress Hezbollah, and suggested that the country could move deeper into the economic orbits of Iran, Syria and China, removing US influence.

Lebanon’s political formation consists of a group of pro-US and pro-Iranian politicians. Hezbollah, which intervened in the Syrian war on behalf of Assad, is the most powerful political force in Lebanon.

The United States has repeatedly said that it supports Lebanese political leadership reforms that are highly sectarian and eradicate corruption, and have not publicly announced economic support for Lebanon for the disarmament of Hezbollah. But local media and politicians speculate that the international community has avoided the country as part of an international effort to displace the armed group.

When Assad and his allies doubled their anti-US stance, there were several signs the Syrian government intended to return to the negotiating table, and analysts warned that the Caesar Act would do little to hold Assad responsible for his crimes.

“Caesar’s supporters hope that the law will prove a step towards accountability for the regime’s horrific crimes,” Syrian Program Director in the Synaps Group Alex Simon told CNN. “While that goal cannot be denied, there is no evidence to suggest that Caesar will achieve this.”

Simon described the sanctions as “a piecemeal policy, reflexive escalation, where ordinary Syrians pay the price.”

“People currently sell the few assets they still have to feed their families. Some sell their kidneys,” Simon said. “The pharmaceutical shortage is so bad that people have been brought to Facebook to gather information about who has a backup drug that can help save lives.”