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Political dispute in 2022 will determine the direction of exchange sectors | Variable income



Political dispute in 2022 will determine the direction of exchange sectors |  Variable income

In addition to the expected change in monetary policy in developed countries with already planned increases in interest rates, mainly in the United States, Brazilian stock market sectors will experience 2022 marked by political controversy, according to market analysts. The return of ideological polarity in 2018 will bring strong volatility and can scare off an investor, mostly foreigners, from risky in Brazil, which could lead to a likely strengthening of fixed income positions

For those who do not want to miss any opportunity that arises in the middle of this foggy path, like blue chips (shares associated with large companies with consolidated performance in their sectors of activity, high liquidity and good financial and operating results) should be the safest – or least dangerous – attraction, with particular attention to exporters, dollarized

2021 received the 2020 bill

In 2021, the markets have coped with the impact of all the measures that were taken in 2020.due to the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in both developed and developing countries, which made their monetary policy more flexible, with lower interest rates and various monetary and tax incentive programs, “he summarizes … Philip Villegas, strategist Excellent investment… “But everything has a price and the bill comes.”

The result of this equation was bottlenecks in production chains, a mismatch between supply and demand, and inflation. “The year was harder for developing countriesthat was supposed to tackle the issue of economic growth, which was less affected in the developed countries, which were a little more cautious about liquidity, but the fact is that inflation has affected all countries, ”emphasizes Villegas.

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Filipe Villegas, Strategist at Genial Investimentos – Photo: Disclosure / Genial

In Brazil, concrete facts reinforced the negative scenario: PEC dos Precatórios, Auxílio Brasil and the cost ceiling crisis… “It was a ‘surprise’ that sparked a rift in confidence between investors and the government, which took advantage of the second half of the year to focus on 2022, due to the presidential elections, with measures to increase its popularity,” says Villegas.

2022: a (very) uncertain future

International stage sets part of the tone in the attractiveness of risky assets in Brazil, especially in the stock market. The resumption of tighter monetary policy, especially in The United States should encourage foreign capital flight from developing countries.

This movement will be especially driven by national policy scenarios, in addition to the role of the central bank, continuing the cycle of high Selicz, base interest rates – strongly favoring fixed income.

“The political scenario is still very open about candidacies,” says Villegas. “With every survey that highlights a more market-oriented name will increase the attractiveness of Brazilian assets… And vice versa.”

The recommendation of a genius strategist: “have a conservative stance with good fixed income investments“. However, if the investor “does not want to stay away from variable income and miss out on good opportunities that may occur even in this scenario of great uncertainty, best placed in large companies, blue chipswithin consolidated sectors that somehow manage to separate from the Brazilian economy, i.e. dollarized exporters who may have lower volatility “

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Despite the fact that we had a completely different scenario due to heightened competition, banks are also a sector that can be attractive, according to Villegas, but there are some factors that could negatively affect the sector. “Banks are gateways for foreign investors, but also an exit“, – he notes. “The electoral scenario can greatly influence this movement. Moreover, the scenario for the loan should also get a little more complicatedtaking into account the growth of the level of family debt ”.

Our purchasing is targeted at companies subject to non-discretionary consumption, which is basic consumption that should occur even with lower disposable income and higher interest rates.“, states Thomas Awad, founding partner of the manager 3R Investmentsstrengthening this positions will largely depend on “how to design the election result.“. In the opposite direction he indicates the sale of shares in sectors “very sensitive to loans and / or interest, or sectors in which competition is very high.“.

“possible victory of the third candidate is likely to be a catalyst positive because it represents real change., with more rationality, a more realistic economic vision and a desire to carry out a minimum of reforms that are more than necessary, ”says Awad.

Like Villegas, Awad also recommends a defensive stance for investors. “focusing on capital preservation, prepared for the worst, and in the possibilities of relative valuebut be prepared to switch to a more optimistic approach if conditions turn out to be favorable. ”

also for Phil Soares, Head of Stock Analysis Department Orama, “2022 will be a year with a reduced business outlookboth due to the recent hike in interest rates and due to events such as elections and the FIFA World Cup. [de futebol]”. In his opinion, the high volatility that the political scenario should bring will be has a stronger influence on state-owned companies such as Petrobras and Eletrobras, the privatization process is still ongoing.

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Soares also emphasizes that Product companies “must benefit from the high dollars and high prices of their products.“. He bet on retail and consumer companies, especially those with lower real income. Sectors basic services such as gas, electricity and sewerage, in addition to the banking sector, should have less volatility, according to analyst Órama.

– Photo: Getty Images.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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