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Political scientist sees scenario of stability before election day



Bernardo Estillac – Condition of the mines

published on 24.10.2022 23:52


Brazil’s presidential election reached its final week with an analysis of the fallout from the arrest of former MP Roberto Jefferson (PTB) following resistance and attacks on federal police with firearms and grenades. However, a polarization scenario marked even before the election period points to a consolidated election and few opportunities for events to effectively influence polling results, according to political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida.

For Almeida, author of Mão ea Luva: What Elects the President, the last stretch of the election is a fertile scenario for what he describes as a “magic thought” sparked by an analysis that seeks to link campaign-affecting events to a possible shift in popular voting.

“Micro-events happen, and everyone wants to analyze them, people believe in illusion, in magic. In fact, every time someone says that something is happening and there will be a change in voting, there is an explanation of electoral behavior in that person’s head, this explanation, in my opinion, is a magical explanation, and not a serious scientific discussion. . For example, the Roberto Jefferson event: everyone is very confused. They say this will affect the vote, but no one even knows exactly in which direction. It will happen that it will not affect anything or will affect very little, ”he estimates.

In an interview with Estado de Minas, Almeida says there is a claim to value that a voter has fickle allegiances to the point of being affected by every electoral move or event that is considered positive or negative for a candidate. The political scientist claims that the elections were little influenced by the events of the entire campaign and that in the specific case of this election, the figures of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) further crystallize this scenario.

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“In principle, this is a very long process. We have been campaigning since last year. An implicit campaign that began in March, when Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister Edson Fachin nullified Lula’s lawsuits and returned him to court. Lula is well known as the most popular leader of all time on the Brazilian left, and Bolsonaro on the right. The choice is already set very quickly, and now, this last week, we will see discussions that contradict a very obvious fact: we have been in the context of a very set election for more than 12 months,” he notes.

According to the political scientist, there is a certain degree of contempt for the political consciousness of voters in “magical thinking” and in hyperanalysis, which is aggravated as we approach the end of the electoral period. For Almeida, to think that events close to election day could change the outcome of the vote is to think that the population can be easily fooled. “Solid preferences are being built, they may not be guided by the same values ​​or set by the same criteria, but they are solid.”

Focus on the abstentions

More than 20% of Brazilian voters did not vote in the first round in 2022. The historical picture shows that this number usually increases in the second round, when the dispute is concentrated on leadership positions. However, in a polarized scenario where two names garnered over 90% of the valid votes, convincing the doubters and increasing their presence at the polls became a central strategy for Lula and Bolsonaro.

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In recent speeches, two candidates in the Palacio do Planalto urged their supporters to focus on those who did not vote in the first round or who annulled the vote. Bolsonaro, for example, is working to fuel Lula’s opposition to try to convince those who didn’t go to the polls in the first round. PT is also trying to win zero and white votes from opposition to the incumbent, betting on voter transfers from Ciro Gomez (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) and has repeatedly praised free public transport measures on Election Day. .

For Alberto Carlos Almeida, if there is movement in the campaigns to focus on the waverers and attack the abstentions, this indicates that the candidates themselves have already understood the scenario of consolidation between those who chose them in the first round and should repeat their vote per second.

“This is a real admission that you cannot vote. It is very difficult. And there is an additional situation, the available votes, which were Simone and Ciro, were already determined in the first week of the second round. These voters are also consolidated,” he adds.

Almeida is betting on an annulment rate lower than that reported in voter polls based on historical statistics. “Only in the 2018 elections, there was an increase in white and zero votes, but it was a time when there was a big wave of people who were not going to vote for either Fernando Haddad (PT) or Bolsonaro.” In the second round of the last presidential election, 9.59% of voters decided not to choose any of the candidates.

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For a political scientist, however, the strategy of reducing abstentions may not work. “I am very skeptical about reducing abstinence. It has a migratory component, so there is a gender of abstentions, people who move and do not transfer the title. There is also a component of disinterest in voting. There are people who have not voted for many years.”

second round long

“Constitutionally, elections are held with the first round on the first Sunday in October and the second round on the last. This year there was a break of four weeks between the votings, this is a very long period, and the result may show that the second round campaigns are ineffective in converting votes,” says Almeida.

Since the redemocratization, this is the seventh presidential election, the decision of which will be made in the second round. So far there has never been a tipping point and the trend is towards stability. In the three times he advanced to the second round, Lula scored at least 12 points over the original vote. In 2018, Bolsonaro won from 46% to 55% of the valid votes between the ballots.

In 1989, Lula lost the election to Fernando Collor de Mello, but received the largest runoff margin for the losing candidate, up 29.8 percentage points. Almeida points out that the election, however, was different: the votes in the first round were split among several candidates, as opposed to 2022, when “third way” names could not even garner 10% of the valid votes when added.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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