The politics of corona viruses

The quick-succession decision by the Supreme Court showed that the balance was tilting in Venezuela and that Maduro felt confident enough to strengthen his power while the opposition had been effectively silenced by coronaviruses.

Until at least March 2020, Venezuela lived through a kind of institutional limbo: on one side was Maduro, who had ruled the country since 2013 and who was accused of rigging elections after elections and changing his presidency in a dictatorship. On the other side was Juan Guaido, the leader of the National Assembly recognized by the US and dozens of other countries as the temporary interim president as long as Maduro remained in power.

Guaido has no authority in Caracas, but he has the support of the international community, which was exemplified when he was invited as a guest at President Trump’s state address in February.

Coronavirus changed all that: Suddenly political and institutional clashes were removed and Maduro declared himself responsible for fighting the pandemic.

He issued a curfew, received medical assistance from China, and began appearing on television detailing the steps and announcing new cases and deaths almost every day.

With populations locked up to prevent the spread of the virus, the opposition can no longer organize street protests or even gather directly at the National Assembly.

“It is quite clear that Maduro is taking advantage of this pandemic,” Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuelan expert at the Washington Office’s think tank for Latin America, told CNN. “If at any time in the last two years he seems weak or irresponsible, he makes it up now.”

To date, Venezuela has registered fewer than 3,500 cases of corona virus and only 28 deaths, although experts doubt the reliability of these figures because the country’s health system is in chaos and has limited capacity to conduct Covid-19 tests.

Luisa Ortega Diaz, a former attorney general who is an enemy of Maduro, told CNN that he could not believe the success story painted by the government. “I’m sick of Maduro claiming to be an anti-Covid paladin when he isn’t interested in people’s welfare.”

Ortega despite acknowledging Maduro was able to use a pandemic to strengthen his power.

Maduro’s big leap forward

Maduro’s latest steps have not been missed. On Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the new Electoral Council “illegal” and said the sentence “took Venezuela further away from the democratic transition.”

Similar criticism came from the European Union and Group Five, which attracted several Latin American countries that did not recognize Maduro.

But aside from condemning the latest push by the Venezuelan leader, there seems to be little the international community can do to bring change to Venezuela for now.

Maduro and some of his closest officials have been under direct US sanctions since 2017, followed by an oil embargo in 2019. He survived several attempts to bring him down and nearly as many negotiations aimed at mediating a peaceful solution. Despite all this, he still stands.

In addition, Latin America has become a pandemic hotspot and most of its governments are more busy fighting viruses than finding solutions to political deadlock in Venezuela.

“The pandemic is like a perfect opportunity for Maduro,” said Margarita López Maya, a Venezuelan historian at the Central University in Caracas.

His decision to hold the military responsible for the coronavirus’s response strengthened his social control, he said. [10] In March, the Venezuelan Army was deployed to impose strict social long-distance measures throughout the country, while recently the army has been managing gas stations for fuel rations.

“In Venezuela, we have an expression – fleeing to the front,” Lopez Maya said. “Obviously, the government feels this is the right time to make a big leap forward to position itself in the future.”

What happens next?

The future is still unclear in a volatile country like Venezuela.

One of the five new Election Board members, Rafael Simón Jiménez, told CNN that he saw himself as Maduro’s opponent and that the opposition should consider his appointment as progress towards fair elections.

Jimenez was part of a large group of opposition “chavista dissidents”: the politician who worked with Maduro and his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez before disputing with the authorities. Similar to former AG Ortega Diaz, Jimenez is not an ally of Maduro, but also does not automatically become a member of the opposition led by Guaido.

So far, Guaido said he did not recognize the decision of the Supreme Court, and that he would not participate in elections held by the new Electoral Council.

Nevertheless, opposition parties new leaders appointed by court orders this week may decide to compete in elections, further destroying the sphere of opposition between groups that recognize the leadership of Guaido and groups that do not.

Ramsey, analyst, still found some hope for a peaceful solution in Venezuela.

The international community in particular, he said, still saw negotiations between Maduro and the opposition as the best outcome, and while condemning the new Election Council, it seemed open to the possibility that Maduro himself would participate in the next round of elections.

Maduro’s departure has long been cited as a precondition for any meaningful negotiations in Venezuela, but if the opposition will cancel the conditions, the government can be persuaded to engage in meaningful negotiations to get sanctioned assistance, Ramsey said.

Pompeo’s statement on Monday named five “key areas” as important for free and fair elections. None of them discussed Maduro’s role, leaving the door open for his eventual participation. “The window is small, faded, but the door is not fully closed,” Ramsey said.

López Maya on the other hand has more pessimistic results. “I don’t see the logic behind the government’s push,” he said. “Even by stealing the election and winning the National Assembly, what do they do? What happens the day after? More conflict and division and the Venezuelan people are bored with it.”