Simple and only “speculation”. So the Lufthansa Group, which owns Lufthansa, Brussels Airlines, Swiss Airlines, Austrian Airlines and Eurowings, describes the news this Friday, which announced the German airline’s alleged readiness to acquire a minority stake in TAP, allowing the government to restructure the Portuguese company to make it viable in Brussels.

Faced with such an opportunity, Lufthansa spokeswoman Anja Stenge told VISION that she “does not comment on any suggestions.” News, posted by Eco, ensures that the interest in the agreement between the Portuguese government and Lufthansa is “mutual”, but VISION knows that this scenario is almost impossible to implement.

Lufthansa leaves: new German company will compete with TAP
Two scenarios impede an instant agreement: legal and commercial. On the one hand, Lufthansa cannot invest in new airlines as part of the government support it has received; on the other hand, it is preparing to create its own long-distance company, becoming a competitor to TAP.

This is what he explains to VISIO Pedro Castro, a commercial aviation consultant. “From a legal point of view, I do not understand how the Lufthansa Group can immediately commit itself to participating in TAP. “With the help that Lufthansa itself received from the German government, it seems impossible to use some of that money to acquire another company,” he says. It should be remembered that this was one of the conditions that were determined between Berlin and the company after the state support of nine billion euros that Lufthansa received to overcome the crisis in the industry. This support allowed the German state to own 20% of the company’s capital (the share can be up to 25%) through subscription to new shares, becoming the main shareholder of Lufthansa. However, the German government has assured that it will not interfere with the management of the company and plans to put its position up for sale in 2023.

Another sign of the opposite is Lufthansa Group’s ambition to launch a new brand: Eurowings Discover, certified by the German Federal Aviation Administration on June 16 last year, will place bets on long-haul flights from Eurowings bases in Germany and abroad (Eurowings has bases in Salzburg, Palma de -Majorca, Pristina and, more recently, Prague). America and Africa are the main destinations, thus covering the portion of the market that TAP considers to be the most profitable. The first Eurowings Discover call is scheduled for July 24 between Frankfurt am Main, Mombasa, Kenya, and Zanzibar, Tanzania.

According to Pedro Castro, this is another route that bridges the gap between Lufthansa and TAP. “This new company is engaged in transportation from European bases to anywhere in the world. I am confident that Lufthansa would rather set up its own company than buy a company that is currently in serious trouble and does not even have social peace. I do not believe that in this scenario, Lufthansa’s interest in TAP is likely, ”the expert said.

How, then, can one explain the interest in the agreement publicly demonstrated by the Portuguese government? “Is an a wish list [lista de desejos]”, Says Pedro Castro. The commercial aviation consultant says he “understands that the Portuguese government would like Lufthansa to participate and increase the credibility of TAP,” but does not see that “the German group is able or willing to do so.” “Right now, they are prohibited by law and have commercial access to Eurowings Discover. There is not even a competitor like Air France or British Airways interested in TAP to push Lufthansa forward. European aviation is not in the buying stage, ”he concludes.

Making the plan credible: Brussels analyzes the support and example of Alitalia
The name Lufthansa has often been used as a hypothesis when a European airline is in trouble. This will allow the Portuguese government to build confidence in the company’s restructuring plan, which continues more than seven months later – it was implemented on December 10 – without obtaining permission from Brussels. This decision is not foreseen: today it also became known that the European Commission will send for an “approved investigation” the TAP plan, which provides for public support and guarantees that can reach up to 3.7 million euros by 2024 – Minister Pedro Nuno Santos has already assured that TAP will be able to start returning money to the state only in 2025.

In a statement, the Commission confirmed “the initiation of an investigation. [que] gives Portugal and interested third parties the opportunity to present their observations without prejudice to the results of the investigation, ”a procedure that can take at least three months. This is a complaint filed by Ryanair with the European Union’s General Court of Justice following a TAP infusion of € 1.2 billion in 2020.

The position of the Portuguese government is reminiscent of the position of the Italian, who for many years publicly and constantly signaled the possible interest of trustworthy Lufthansa in Alitalia, which was never realized. Whether the interest was real or not, only media The Italians will confirm (the Germans are silent). Brussels, for its part, has never relaxed its demands, and the negotiations ended only yesterday. The bankrupt government of Mario Draghi this Thursday closed months of talks with the European Commission to bail out the company, which has gone bankrupt since 2017.

After Rome provided Alitalia with two loans worth about 1.6 billion euros over the past four years, with some of this money not being returned as planned, Brussels has decided to tighten its surveillance. The agreement reached was closed only after the Italian government renounced the name of the company. Alitalia will commence flights with the Ita designation on 15 October.

VISION has contacted the Ministry of Infrastructure, which is in charge of transport, to find out what connection currently exists between TAP and Lufthansa, but has not yet received a response.