Bahia’s policies, dominated for decades by former governor Antonio Carlos Magallains, allowed winning groups to remain in power for long periods. Taking refuge in the PFL, Carlismo reclaimed four consecutive victories in disputes for the governor between 1990 and 2002. A few months before ACM’s death, at the age of 79, in 2007, the group was finally evicted by Jacques Wagner (PT). – Elected in 2010 and replaced by the current Governor Rui Costa (PT), who is re-elected for a second term. Thus, by the end of 2022, the Carlists will have sixteen years of power, while the PT will have sixteen. And a bitter and symbolic dispute between hegemonic groups in the nation’s fourth-largest electoral college in next year’s election will be a bitter and symbolic dispute: on the one hand, PT Wagner, who completed the Carlist cycle; on the other, the former mayor of El Salvador ACM Neto (DEM), who will try to defeat the torturer of his grandfather, whose political heir.

The challenge to “get revenge” on ACM will be Neto’s biggest career – and an opportunity to make a difference with his grandfather. The most voting federal MP from Bahia in 2002 (23), 2006 and 2010, he retired from politics under the influence of four decades of ACM, whose iron hand earned him the nickname “Colonel”. A coup supporter and spokesman for the Arena, a pro-regime party, the ACM has made a career in positions nominated by the dictatorship such as mayor of El Salvador and twice governor, a position he was elected in 1990 with a successful transition from leader to democracy. Elected President of the Senate in 1997, at the height of his power, he helped elect three governors of Bahia to the NFL.

Renamed DEM, the party led by ACM Neto has undergone movements that show profound differences in style from its grandfather, including more moderate and social democratic dress. “ACM has always been a situation and has done government-to-government policy. Neto had to spend most of his politics in opposition, in a renewal that realized the importance of the party, ”said political analyst Carla Galvau Pereira of the UFBA. If that weren’t enough, ACM Neto will continue to be responsible for leading the main DEM project in the country and bringing initials to power in the state where it has the most federal MPs – five (equal to Sao Paulo). “Bahia has a lot of weight and Neto is the president of the party. It is clear that priority is given to this candidacy, ”says the president of the party, Paulo Hazi.

Although the main clash in 2022 will be the battle between Karlism and PT, the dispute over Ondin Palace will not be the only reason for this. Bahia’s chessboard may acquire a force strange to local polarization: karmarism, with the possible candidacy of Minister for Citizenship, João Roma (Republicans). If confirmed, it will be a very tough fight. Having received 84.3% approval at the end of his term in El Salvador, Parana Peskisas said, ACM Neto elected his deputy Bruno Reis (DEM) in 2020 and became the leader of government polls. In fact, his city administration was competent, with the completion of the work and the successful redevelopment of the city. On the other hand, PT in Rui Costa has a manager with the same high rating – 66% approve of his government. Roma, on the other hand, is in charge of the ministry responsible for Auxílio Brasil, a program created to replace Bolsa Família’s “PT” and which is cited as one of the factors that polynarists can use in elections.

Another force that will have an impact in this political ring in 2022 is the impact of external support. Wagner, for example, will have the Lula factor in his favor. The former president received 66% of the state’s vote in the first round of the 2006 elections – a 60% level maintained when Dilma Rousseff and Fernando Haddad were candidates. With a name associated with the PC leader in research (see the picture), Wagner climbs 10 points, as does João Roma when he is associated with Bolsonaro, despite the fact that the president is rejected by 62% of Bahia residents. ACM Neto, on the other hand, loses votes when his candidacy is tied to Ciro Gomes (PDT), who is now far from an alliance with DEM. Among Neto’s allies, the assessment is that his main obstacle is precisely this equation, which includes the national scenario.

It is important that the arrangement does not wear out. DEM is currently working on the provisional candidacy of former Minister Luis Enrique Mandetta and does not exclude Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (MG). If his own candidacy is not realized, ACM Neto welcomes the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, who will compete in the PSDB caucus against the Governor of São Paulo, João Doria, who shocked the Bahians. Another possibility is to continue working without a formal alliance with a presidential candidate – the capital’s experience of working with opponents in the state government will help illustrate the thesis that an alliance with Brasilia is unnecessary. In order to keep the PT’s weight in the state and to win votes for Bolsonaro, Neto intends to “denationalize” the discourse and not enter into an “ideological struggle”. “Our goal is to resist mainly local, to resist two projects: one represents the past and the other reflects my future,” he says. “I will run for governor, not president. We will wait to follow the development of national policies and the definition of DEM, ”he says.

In the current controversy in a state where the echoes of dwarfism will be clear, even if modernized in the form of ACM Neto, the collapse of the line of succession in recent decades has spawned a feature that will affect the controversy. With the loss of power, the allies were scattered. And some ended up in the PT circle, like Rui Costa’s deputy, João Leau (PP) and Senator Otto Alencar (PSD). Leao and the SDP are now threatening to break the front with PT in an attempt to make their own government candidacies viable, while Wagner is betting on the union: “Of course we will get to the elections together.” There can be separation at the other end too. Although Roma may get into an argument based on the new Bolsa Família, he is still considered a loser. But his presence in the race could steal precious votes from ACM Neto’s electorate, further fueling controversy on Bahia’s political chessboard.

Published in VEJA on August 25, 2021, issue # 2752.