California’s economic recovery will be like a slow ‘Nike swoosh’

Published

5 years ago

June 24, 2020

California's economic recovery will be like a slow 'Nike swoosh'

California is unlikely to recover the pre-corona virus prosperity over the next three years, economists say, even as the country slowly rebuilds from the economic lockdown of disaster.

The gradual recovery of Golden State will probably reflect the country’s trajectory, according to new UCLA estimates.

“The public health crisis from a pandemic turned into a crisis like depression in … [U.S.] economics, “writes David Shulman, senior economist at UCLA Anderson Forecast.

The country’s economic trajectory will be like “Nike swoosh,” Shulman writes: Real gross domestic product will plunge this quarter – at an annual rate of 42% – and then gradually rise, not returning to its peak in late 2019 until early 2023.

Even a gradual return to normal activity is based on a rather optimistic scenario – that the COVID-19 pandemic will subside, avoiding a break in recovery or another wave of stopping.

“A strong assumption is the reduction in pandemics this summer,” writes Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA director Anderson Forecast. “But we must remember that the pandemic assumption is: an assumption.”

California’s unemployment rate, which was 16.3% in May, will average to 10.5% for this year, estimates forecast. This will drop to 8.2% in 2021 and to 6.8% in 2022, that’s predicted.

In comparison, in February – before the pandemic hit the state economy – the unemployment rate was 3.9%.

Two other forecasts show a rather slow rise again for the Gold Country this year.

“Even with the recovery, there will be 800,000 fewer jobs in California in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter” in 2020, according to the Chapman University view released this week. It predicts an average unemployment rate of 11.3% this year.

Nevertheless, economist Chapman suggested, the post-pandemic comeback could be “fast” compared to the recovery from the Great Recession, which “dragged on for seven quarters.”

Estimated Bank of the West California released this month shows unemployment will average 10.5% this year, 9.1% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

“The closure of California business is more durable and more severe than many states,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at the bank. “Recovery in leisure and hospitality and trade is likely to be slower than the nation. And the high cost of living is convincing more people to leave the state for greener pastures: areas with better job prospects and lower living costs. “

Beyond the effects of the private sector, Anderson noted the fall in state revenues and sales tax revenues.

“Like an earthquake, this is only the beginning,” he wrote in a bank estimate. “State and local spending is expected to fall sharply to help balance the state budget, further burdening California’s job creation.”

UCLA estimates expect a slow trajectory for personal income in California, which will drop 0.9% this year, up only 1.4% next year and 2.2% in 2022.

Employers will not quickly add new jobs. UCLA estimates forecast salaries in California to shrink by 9.3% overall this year, then grow at 0.4% next year and 6.6% the following year.

From February to April, California lost 2.56 million payroll jobs, a loss of 15%. That’s worse than job loss caused by the 2007-09 Great Recession, when the country slumped 1.3 million positions, or 8%, over 26 months.

In contrast to the recession, which was driven by an unprecedented decline in the construction industry, two sectors – holidays and hospitality as well as retailing – led to this year’s crisis caused by a pandemic, accounting for half of jobs lost.

When restaurants, event halls, and tourist attractions reopen, the work will not return, UCLA predictions are predicted.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has created a sense of caution on the part of the general public, both in California and among tourists who may come to the state,” the UCLA forecast said. “Potential customers for this business want to feel safe before exploring.”

By the end of 2022, it is estimated, the leisure and hospitality sector will remain 20% below the previous peak.

“That means 200,000 California low-income people with long-term unemployment for 30 months,” the estimate said. “Some will find work in other sectors, but in an economy that demands technical skills, it will be challenging.”

Retail jobs, hit by rising online shopping and the bankruptcy of the brick and mortar chain, may also remain 20% below pre-pandemic levels, UCLA estimates suggest, with 160,000 fewer jobs. But that underscores the uncertainty of the company. prediction: “It depends in a crucial way like what happens when the economy opens. Do consumers return to the mall, or do they avoid it? “

Chapman’s estimates note that the concentration of job loss in retail, restaurants, hotels and other tourism-related businesses means less revenue loss than if the job were, for example, in construction or technology.

Workers in retail and recreation and hospitality earn relatively low wages – about half of the average in the entire state. “Therefore, the economic damage to the country will be far less than that implied by huge job losses,” Chapman estimates.

Construction is expected to recover fairly quickly, and “the average annual salary for construction workers is $ 71,300 versus $ 30,400 for holidays and hospitality,” Chapman economists write. And information services, a California industry that has remained stable, “ordered an average salary of $ 187,200 versus $ 68,400 for all industries.”

UCLA economists predict health and social services, where medical and dental offices and day care centers suffer heavy losses, will replace jobs “much faster” than retail or vacation and hospitality.

“Medical offices will move back to normal when they institutionalize protocols that will ensure patient safety during the visit,” noted UCLA economists. And for childcare, even though more people than usual will work from home, “that might not reduce childcare needs because a distraction-free environment might be desirable.”

Comparing California with the United States as a whole, UCLA estimates say the country’s disproportionate dependence on international tourism will mean a slower recovery in leisure and hospitality and retail. The transportation and warehousing sector can also see slower returns in California than in the rest of the country because of the US-China trade war, which disproportionately affects California’s major ports.

On the other hand, the State of Gold must recover faster than the country as a whole in business, scientific and technical services and in the information sector “because of the demand for new technology for our new ways of working and socializing.”

For example, Nickelsburg suggested, “there will be new technology for people who work at home. And there is telemedicine. “

As for the housing sector, UCLA estimates that 94,000 new units will be built in California this year, down 17.3% from a year ago.

“In spite of the recession, ongoing demand for limited housing stock coupled with low interest rates leads to estimates of returns on houses relatively quickly,” Nickelsburg wrote. But even with much of the construction work returning, he said, “the prospect of the private sector building on the problem of housing affordability over the next three years is zero.”

In an article accompanying these forecasts, economist Leila Bengali suggested that “this pandemic has a small, though generally negative, impact on the housing market in March 2020 … [It] can shift consumer preferences to single-family, lower-density homes and away from denser multi-family homes, especially if consumers can live farther away from their employer’s location. “

And if the state Tenant Protection Act, which took effect in January, “has a negative impact on the costs and revenues of landlords, they may respond by leaving the rental market, reducing the supply of homes for rent but potentially increasing the supply of houses for sale if Property conversion happens quickly. “

The pandemic effect and tenant protection laws across the country “become interrelated when cities and countries issue moratoria for evictions for not paying rent,” he added.

Goodwin Townsend

General internet buff. Hardcore music maven. Typical foodaholic. Friendly student.

All Your Acrylic Nail Questions Answered: From Application to Care

Published

3 months ago

October 16, 2024

Herb Adkins

Acrylic nails are a popular choice for those looking to add length, strength, and style to their natural nails. Whether you’re new to the world of acrylics or a seasoned nail enthusiast, there are always questions that arise about the application, maintenance, and overall care of these enhancements. This guide will answer all your acrylic nail questions to ensure your next manicure is a complete success.

What Are Acrylic Nails?

Acrylic nails are artificial nail enhancements made from a mixture of liquid monomer and powder polymer. When combined, they form a hard protective layer that can be molded into various shapes and lengths. Once hardened, they provide a durable and long-lasting canvas for nail polish, art, or simply a natural look. For more in-depth information, check out Acrylic Nail FAQs to get all the details you need before your next salon visit.

How Are Acrylic Nails Applied?

The application process of acrylic nails begins with the preparation of your natural nails. The nail technician will clean your nails, file them down, and apply a bonding agent to help the acrylic adhere. The acrylic mixture is then applied in thin layers, sculpted to the desired shape, and allowed to dry. Once set, the nails are filed, shaped, and buffed to a smooth finish.

Acrylic nails can be customized in terms of length and shape, making them a versatile choice for anyone looking to enhance their look.

How Long Do Acrylic Nails Last?

Typically, acrylic nails can last anywhere from two to three weeks before requiring a fill. During a fill, the nail technician will replace any grown-out acrylic and maintain the structure of the nails. With proper care, acrylic nails can be worn for extended periods, but it’s essential to give your natural nails a break occasionally to maintain nail health.

How Do You Care for Acrylic Nails?

Caring for acrylic nails is crucial to ensuring they last as long as possible and that your natural nails remain healthy underneath. Here are some essential tips:

Avoid excessive water exposure: Prolonged exposure to water can weaken acrylic nails, making them prone to lifting or damage. When washing dishes or cleaning, consider wearing gloves to protect your nails.
Moisturize cuticles regularly: The acrylic application process can sometimes dry out your cuticles. Regularly apply cuticle oil to keep your cuticles hydrated and prevent hangnails.
Be gentle with your nails: Acrylics can be strong, but they’re not indestructible. Avoid using your nails as tools to open packages or scrape things, as this can lead to breakage.
Schedule regular fills: As your natural nails grow, gaps will appear between the acrylic and your cuticles. Regular fills ensure your nails maintain a smooth, polished look and help prevent lifting.

How Do You Remove Acrylic Nails Safely?

Proper removal is crucial to avoid damaging your natural nails. It’s highly recommended to have acrylics removed by a professional at the salon. However, if you prefer to remove them at home, follow these steps:

Soak in acetone: Start by soaking a cotton ball in acetone, then place it on each nail. Wrap your fingers in aluminum foil and allow the acetone to work for about 20 minutes.
Gently scrape off the acrylic: After soaking, use a cuticle pusher or an orange stick to gently scrape off the softened acrylic. Be patient and avoid forcing the acrylic off, as this can damage your natural nails.
Buff and moisturize: Once the acrylic is completely removed, buff your natural nails to smooth out any rough spots and apply cuticle oil to restore moisture.

Are Acrylic Nails Safe for Your Natural Nails?

When applied and removed properly, acrylic nails should not cause significant damage to your natural nails. However, improper removal or overuse without giving your nails time to breathe can lead to thinning, weakening, or breakage of your natural nails.

If you plan on wearing acrylic nails long-term, it’s a good idea to take breaks between applications and ensure you’re nourishing your nails with oils and treatments.

What Are the Best Acrylic Nail Shapes?

Choosing the right nail shape is essential for creating a look that complements your hands. Some of the most popular acrylic nail shapes include:

– Square: A straight-edged, classic look perfect for shorter nails.

– Oval: A soft, rounded shape that elongates the fingers.

– Coffin: Also known as ballerina shape, this trendy look features a tapered edge with a flat tip.

– Stiletto: A dramatic, pointy shape ideal for those who want a bold statement.

Each shape offers a unique aesthetic and can be tailored to suit your personal style.

Are There Any Alternatives to Acrylic Nails?

If you’re looking for a different type of nail enhancement, consider these alternatives:

– Gel nails: Gel nails offer a glossy finish and are cured under UV or LED light. They’re less rigid than acrylics and can feel more natural.

– Dip powder: This method involves dipping the nails into a colored powder and sealing them with a clear coat. It provides a similar look to acrylics but is generally less damaging to the natural nails.

Conclusion

Acrylic nails are a versatile and durable option for achieving customized, beautiful nails. By understanding the application process, knowing how to care for them, and safely removing them, you can enjoy long-lasting manicures that enhance your style. With the ability to choose from a variety of shapes and designs, acrylic nails offer endless possibilities for self-expression. Remember to take care of your natural nails in between applications to keep them healthy and strong. Whether you’re a first-time user or a seasoned pro, acrylic nails can be a fantastic way to express your personality and keep your nails looking flawless for weeks.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

Jacqueline Troost Omvlee – A Tool in the Hands of the Russian Elite

Published

4 months ago

September 26, 2024

Herb Adkins

When sanctions were imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine, their objectives were twofold: to reduce Russian military capacity by limiting modern weapons and to lower Russian revenue streams. While in the beginning, the sanctions indeed weakened the Russian economy, they have fallen short of their initial objectives – mostly because Russia has found ways to circumvent many of them. The Kremlin has exploited international corruption, relied on foreign third parties, and utilized loopholes in trade restrictions. One such individual who allegedly provides services to Russian-linked companies is Jacqueline Troost Omvlee, a Geneva-based Dutch citizen.

Jacqueline Troost Omvlee is married to Niels Troost, an oil trader sanctioned by the United Kingdom. He and his company, Paramount Energy & Commodities SA, are among the 50 individuals and organizations blacklisted in response to the business connections with Russia. His wife, Jacqueline, helps to facilitate financial transactions for Niles Troost and Russian oligarchs including Gennady Timchenko, a Russian billionaire oil trader and Putin`s close associate.

Gennady Timchenko and his family have been sanctioned in many countries for backing the Kremlin’s war machine. However, with the help of Jacqueline Troost Omvlee, he seems to find ways to evade sanctions and continue his financial operations. In these illegal schemes, individuals like Jacqueline often serve as a front person for sanctioned oligarchs and their business assets. Russian-linked companies set up subsidiaries around the world, often registering new entities in offshore havens or countries where regulations are relatively lax or non-existent. To obfuscate the arrangements, the daughter companies spawn offspring in the form of subsidiaries, as the chain of concealment stretches on and on. The result is like a giant Matryoshka doll.

Jacqueline’s involvement in financial transactions that potentially support Timchenko’s interests raises significant concerns about the efficacy of Western sanctions. The fact that Jacqueline Troost Omvlee continues to operate without facing sanctions herself highlights a significant loophole in the enforcement mechanism. Various shady schemes and tactics designed to circumvent sanctions often hide the activity of individuals such as Jacqueline, making it difficult for authorities to detect and punish them for their involvement.

Jacqueline Troost Omvlee’s role in her husband’s financial dealings as well as her alleged ties to Russian business schemes, emphasizes the need for stronger international sanctions. Her actions not only aid in sanctions evasion but also diminish the overall effectiveness of the measures designed to isolate and pressure those supporting the Russian regime. Therefore, sanctioning Jacqueline Troost Omvlee is not only a matter of addressing her individual actions but also a necessary step to reinforce the credibility and effectiveness of the sanctions regime. By targeting individuals who play a key role in evading sanctions, authorities can send a strong message that efforts to undermine international sanctions will not go unpunished. This measure is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the sanctions system and ensuring that it achieves its intended goal of isolating and restraining those who support destabilizing activities.

European countries and the US need to expand their sanctions-tracking and investigative actions to improve the monitoring of sanctions compliance and to introduce new measures against systematic violators of law. The sanctioning states have the resources and capacity for this, and need to take action now.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

Hermann’s Tortoise Lifespan: How to Ensure a Long, Healthy Life

Published

4 months ago

September 16, 2024

Herb Adkins

Ensuring a long and healthy life for your Hermann’s Tortoise requires a combination of proper care, nutrition, and habitat management. Hermann’s Tortoises, known for their charming personalities and distinctive shells, can live for several decades with the right conditions. Understanding their needs and providing a suitable environment is key to helping them thrive. Here’s how you can support your Hermann’s Tortoise in living a long, happy life.

Creating an Optimal Habitat

One of the most critical factors in promoting the longevity of your Hermann’s Tortoise is the creation of a suitable habitat. Providing an environment that mimics their natural surroundings is essential for their overall health. An appropriate habitat helps prevent stress and supports their well-being. For detailed guidance on setting up an ideal habitat, including specific requirements for outdoor enclosures, visit this comprehensive guide on Habitat for Hermann’s Tortoise.

Outdoor Enclosure: Hermann’s Tortoises thrive in outdoor enclosures that provide ample space to roam, bask, and forage. An outdoor setup should include a secure, predator-proof area with access to natural sunlight. Incorporate areas for basking and shade to allow the tortoise to regulate its body temperature. Additionally, include plants, rocks, and hiding spots to simulate their natural habitat and encourage natural behaviors.
Indoor Habitat: If an outdoor enclosure is not feasible, an indoor habitat can also support a long lifespan if set up correctly. Use a large, well-ventilated enclosure with appropriate heating and UVB lighting. Provide a substrate that allows for burrowing and offer various hiding spots and enrichment items.

Diet and Nutrition

A balanced diet is vital for maintaining the health and longevity of your Hermann’s Tortoise. They are primarily herbivores, and their diet should reflect their natural feeding habits.

Leafy Greens: Offer a variety of leafy greens such as kale, collard greens, and dandelion greens. These vegetables provide essential vitamins and minerals that support overall health.
Vegetables and Fruits: Supplement their diet with other vegetables like carrots, squash, and bell peppers. Fruits should be given in moderation due to their high sugar content.
Calcium and Supplements: Provide a calcium supplement to support shell and bone health. A cuttlebone or powdered calcium can be added to their food. Ensure that they also have access to fresh, clean water at all times.

Regular Health Checks

Routine health checks are essential for early detection of potential health issues. Regular veterinary visits help ensure your tortoise remains in optimal condition and addresses any health concerns promptly.

Observation: Monitor your tortoise’s behavior and physical condition regularly. Changes in appetite, weight, or activity level can indicate health problems.
Preventative Care: Schedule annual check-ups with a veterinarian experienced in reptile care. Regular exams help catch any issues early and keep vaccinations and other preventative treatments up to date.

Environmental Enrichment

Providing environmental enrichment helps keep your Hermann’s Tortoise mentally stimulated and active. Enrichment can reduce stress and prevent boredom, contributing to a better quality of life.

Foraging Opportunities: Hide food items around the enclosure to encourage natural foraging behavior. This not only provides mental stimulation but also mimics their natural hunting practices.
Variety: Change the layout of their enclosure periodically and introduce new objects or plants to keep their environment interesting and engaging.

Conclusion

By focusing on creating the right habitat, providing a balanced diet, ensuring regular health checks, and offering environmental enrichment, you can significantly enhance the lifespan and well-being of your Hermann’s Tortoise. For further details on creating an ideal habitat, including tips for designing an outdoor enclosure, refer to this helpful guide on Habitat for Hermann’s Tortoise. Implementing these practices will help ensure that your tortoise enjoys a long, healthy life.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.