California is unlikely to recover the pre-corona virus prosperity over the next three years, economists say, even as the country slowly rebuilds from the economic lockdown of disaster.

The gradual recovery of Golden State will probably reflect the country’s trajectory, according to new UCLA estimates.

“The public health crisis from a pandemic turned into a crisis like depression in … [U.S.] economics, “writes David Shulman, senior economist at UCLA Anderson Forecast.

The country’s economic trajectory will be like “Nike swoosh,” Shulman writes: Real gross domestic product will plunge this quarter – at an annual rate of 42% – and then gradually rise, not returning to its peak in late 2019 until early 2023.

Even a gradual return to normal activity is based on a rather optimistic scenario – that the COVID-19 pandemic will subside, avoiding a break in recovery or another wave of stopping.

“A strong assumption is the reduction in pandemics this summer,” writes Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA director Anderson Forecast. “But we must remember that the pandemic assumption is: an assumption.”

California’s unemployment rate, which was 16.3% in May, will average to 10.5% for this year, estimates forecast. This will drop to 8.2% in 2021 and to 6.8% in 2022, that’s predicted.

In comparison, in February – before the pandemic hit the state economy – the unemployment rate was 3.9%.

Two other forecasts show a rather slow rise again for the Gold Country this year.

“Even with the recovery, there will be 800,000 fewer jobs in California in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter” in 2020, according to the Chapman University view released this week. It predicts an average unemployment rate of 11.3% this year.

Nevertheless, economist Chapman suggested, the post-pandemic comeback could be “fast” compared to the recovery from the Great Recession, which “dragged on for seven quarters.”

Estimated Bank of the West California released this month shows unemployment will average 10.5% this year, 9.1% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

“The closure of California business is more durable and more severe than many states,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at the bank. “Recovery in leisure and hospitality and trade is likely to be slower than the nation. And the high cost of living is convincing more people to leave the state for greener pastures: areas with better job prospects and lower living costs. “

Beyond the effects of the private sector, Anderson noted the fall in state revenues and sales tax revenues.

“Like an earthquake, this is only the beginning,” he wrote in a bank estimate. “State and local spending is expected to fall sharply to help balance the state budget, further burdening California’s job creation.”

UCLA estimates expect a slow trajectory for personal income in California, which will drop 0.9% this year, up only 1.4% next year and 2.2% in 2022.

Employers will not quickly add new jobs. UCLA estimates forecast salaries in California to shrink by 9.3% overall this year, then grow at 0.4% next year and 6.6% the following year.

From February to April, California lost 2.56 million payroll jobs, a loss of 15%. That’s worse than job loss caused by the 2007-09 Great Recession, when the country slumped 1.3 million positions, or 8%, over 26 months.

In contrast to the recession, which was driven by an unprecedented decline in the construction industry, two sectors – holidays and hospitality as well as retailing – led to this year’s crisis caused by a pandemic, accounting for half of jobs lost.

When restaurants, event halls, and tourist attractions reopen, the work will not return, UCLA predictions are predicted.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has created a sense of caution on the part of the general public, both in California and among tourists who may come to the state,” the UCLA forecast said. “Potential customers for this business want to feel safe before exploring.”

By the end of 2022, it is estimated, the leisure and hospitality sector will remain 20% below the previous peak.

“That means 200,000 California low-income people with long-term unemployment for 30 months,” the estimate said. “Some will find work in other sectors, but in an economy that demands technical skills, it will be challenging.”

Retail jobs, hit by rising online shopping and the bankruptcy of the brick and mortar chain, may also remain 20% below pre-pandemic levels, UCLA estimates suggest, with 160,000 fewer jobs. But that underscores the uncertainty of the company. prediction: “It depends in a crucial way like what happens when the economy opens. Do consumers return to the mall, or do they avoid it? “

Chapman’s estimates note that the concentration of job loss in retail, restaurants, hotels and other tourism-related businesses means less revenue loss than if the job were, for example, in construction or technology.

Workers in retail and recreation and hospitality earn relatively low wages – about half of the average in the entire state. “Therefore, the economic damage to the country will be far less than that implied by huge job losses,” Chapman estimates.

Construction is expected to recover fairly quickly, and “the average annual salary for construction workers is $ 71,300 versus $ 30,400 for holidays and hospitality,” Chapman economists write. And information services, a California industry that has remained stable, “ordered an average salary of $ 187,200 versus $ 68,400 for all industries.”

UCLA economists predict health and social services, where medical and dental offices and day care centers suffer heavy losses, will replace jobs “much faster” than retail or vacation and hospitality.

“Medical offices will move back to normal when they institutionalize protocols that will ensure patient safety during the visit,” noted UCLA economists. And for childcare, even though more people than usual will work from home, “that might not reduce childcare needs because a distraction-free environment might be desirable.”

Comparing California with the United States as a whole, UCLA estimates say the country’s disproportionate dependence on international tourism will mean a slower recovery in leisure and hospitality and retail. The transportation and warehousing sector can also see slower returns in California than in the rest of the country because of the US-China trade war, which disproportionately affects California’s major ports.

On the other hand, the State of Gold must recover faster than the country as a whole in business, scientific and technical services and in the information sector “because of the demand for new technology for our new ways of working and socializing.”

For example, Nickelsburg suggested, “there will be new technology for people who work at home. And there is telemedicine. “

As for the housing sector, UCLA estimates that 94,000 new units will be built in California this year, down 17.3% from a year ago.

“In spite of the recession, ongoing demand for limited housing stock coupled with low interest rates leads to estimates of returns on houses relatively quickly,” Nickelsburg wrote. But even with much of the construction work returning, he said, “the prospect of the private sector building on the problem of housing affordability over the next three years is zero.”

In an article accompanying these forecasts, economist Leila Bengali suggested that “this pandemic has a small, though generally negative, impact on the housing market in March 2020 … [It] can shift consumer preferences to single-family, lower-density homes and away from denser multi-family homes, especially if consumers can live farther away from their employer’s location. “

And if the state Tenant Protection Act, which took effect in January, “has a negative impact on the costs and revenues of landlords, they may respond by leaving the rental market, reducing the supply of homes for rent but potentially increasing the supply of houses for sale if Property conversion happens quickly. “

The pandemic effect and tenant protection laws across the country “become interrelated when cities and countries issue moratoria for evictions for not paying rent,” he added.