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State polls show Biden has a clear national advantage



State polls show Biden has a clear national advantage

What is the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether they are an accurate representation of what is happening at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is with compare the results of state polls for past presidential elections in certain states. I did it for all telephone polls that have been calling cell phones since early April.
When we were average out this state poll, they suggested that Biden ran about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.

In other words, state-level polls show that Biden has a national advantage of around 8 points.

That is actually slightly larger than the 6.6 points that Biden has in the average high-quality national poll taken in the same period. I should note that if we weigh the average state poll for each state population, we get a margin of 6.6 points in the north. (Population-based weights make us somewhat more vulnerable to outlier polls, because we have fewer polls from the most populous states.)

In addition, all methods agree that Biden has considerable national advantage.

Researching state polls has the advantage of having more data points to play, so I feel safe enough that they give us a decent snapshot. We are looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. Small aggregate error margins.

In addition, we can see conditions that we expect to be at least a little competitive (ie, those whose margins are within the last 10 points) and which in our opinion will not close in 2020.

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In competitive countries (where most state voting has taken place), there has been an average swing of 6 points against Biden compared to the Clinton 2016 results. The same is true in non-competitive countries.

At least from this state-level data, it seems that no candidate runs a disproportionate score in fields that are already friendly to him.

Biden has posted leads of more than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He excelled in more than enough states to win 270 electoral votes, if elections were held today.

We can also test our data, to see what would happen if the polls underestimated Trump like they did in 2016.

What I found is that Biden will stay ahead, even with a 2016 accident.

Poll downplaying Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states for which we are currently polling. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden will have 6-7 points leading nationally.

Concentrate only on competitive countries, Trump’s undersold poll with 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If polls in competing countries die as much as at the end of 2016, Biden will still excel in countries such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of course, it might not be wise to expect a 2016-size voting era in 2020. Polls in these countries which have large contests throughout the state in 2018 are pretty much impartial. It doesn’t matter what set of countries (all or only competitive) and which aggregate, the poll was no more favorable for the Republicans than the final result.
In states like Wisconsin, America Marquette 2018 final poll nail down the margins of the last Senate and underestimate Democratic candidates for governor’s margin by 1 point.

The point is that Biden is ahead now nationally and in competitive countries. The good news for Trump is that he has about six months to change the direction of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do it.

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Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.



Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.



Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

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