When the president said he would dissolve parliament and call early elections if the state budget failed, the chances of this scenario were very high. Whoever bets that Marcelo’s prophecy will come true, a lot of money will be made at this rate. Included himself, because Marcelo never tired of saying that he meant the opposite effect when he spoke to the country about this danger, which will lead us to enter a political cycle with many mini-cycles inside, with crises that have the behavior of cherries that seem to be one whole. after another. another. And this is one of the prophecies that has everything for self-realization in a highly fragmented parliament, when old parties give way to new parties that are more unstable and more eager to return to participation in elections again in order to strengthen their electoral weight.
Marcelo’s third prophecy is that the election results will ultimately lead us to an informal Central Bloc, modeled after what he did with Guterres, as the only way to ensure that the country is governed. For a year or two, necessarily for two budgets approved next year, for 2021 and 2022.
Self-fulfilling prophecy creates an expectation that, even if it may be false, leads to behavior that makes it true. In Marcelo’s case, false expectation is replaced by perceived desire, and the opposite is likely to happen. This was the case with the state records that the president wanted to approve, and with the legislative branch that he wanted to fulfill, and ultimately it will be with the stability he hopes to see after the January 30 elections, in the highest desire of Marcelo, with the blocks securely on the right and left.
Having made public the political blackmail he had committed against the PKP and the Bloc, the president wished that at least the communists, who once again lost at the ballot box, would retreat from the abyss. He didn’t bother to understand that, in view of the accumulation of defeats associated with the presidential threat, the PCP had no choice but to disintegrate, so as not to continue the applause until the moment when it stopped looking to the future. mirror until there was no point in the existence of the communist party.
By pushing all parties towards elections, convinced that a useful vote on the left in the PS and on the right in the PSD will ultimately give one bloc a comfortable majority with a stronger leadership, the president risks getting an arithmetic majority. transformation is a political impossibility due to excessive weakness on the part of any of these majority. In the case of the left, because the return of the PKP or Blok to a clever device can only happen with a benefit to the cause, even if they leave with significant losses in the ballot boxes. In the case of the right, even with the victory of the SDP and with an increase in the number of votes compared to 2019, no majority is possible without a significant strengthening of Chega.
The outcome of the municipal elections, more than fiscal policy, has loosened the last of the screws holding this ingenious invention in place.
In addition to racist ideas in André Ventura’s party, one should fear the permanent instability that is part of the DNA of those whose ideology is opportunism. As we could see recently, when they wanted to overthrow the government of the Azores just because the leader of Chega felt neglected by the leader of the PSD.
A more fragmented parliament, with new parties gaining weight in the half-cycle, will worsen the conditions for governance, pushing the two largest parties in the system into each other’s arms if all other attempts to make government viable fail. The problem is that from the moment we all know this is about to happen, there will be more and more fighting against that decision in the campaign. For PS and PSD to grow, they need a bipolar campaign in which they can appeal for a beneficial vote, but the idea of an informal central bloc in the forge has provided all other parties with a better case for fighting bipolarization.
The result of the local elections, more than the budgetary policy, made it possible to loosen the last of the screws holding the device, and it is impossible with a reasonable probability to expect a government decision (even if temporary) stronger than the Central Bloc (if only informally). If that decision doesn’t work, then Marcelo, a president who loves stability, risks going down in history as the head of state who helped make the country ungovernable when he allowed Antonio Costa to anticipate an election that will now be much less difficult for PS. than any other time ahead.
