What if he loses?

Why do we wait for months to inaugurate the President and how Trump entered

CNN: We held presidential elections on the first Tuesday after after the first Monday in November. But the new President will not take office until January. What is the reason for this gap and is it still necessary?

KAB: The reason for this gap is to provide a peaceful transfer of power and is absolutely necessary. Maybe now more than before.

I interviewed more than two dozen people who worked for Barack Obama and George W. Bush and on both sides I was told that they had a smooth transition that was important at a time when the country was experiencing its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. . Michelle Obama’s first chief of staff, Jackie Norris, told me that she “will never forget the intense friendship and loyalty that the first women and the first female staff members had for each other.” The same applies to the West Wing.

The gratuitous way of the Trump campaign is approaching a dangerous transition. What is certain is that no one on his campaign team has even taken the time to compile an acceptance speech. They don’t think they will win.

Trump won the partial election by saying he would “drain the swamp” but there is a basic responsibility of the federal government that he would be better prepared to manage if he had some level of institutional knowledge (Joe Biden is the opposite). And that takes time which means it takes several months to make an appointment and learn how to work.

I wrote in my book “Team Five” that Obama’s aides were told to prepare a “how to” draft manual on how their offices function, including the smallest breakdown of voice mail passwords.

This is from the book:

But Obama’s aides don’t have anyone to hand over the carefully curated briefing book.

Government employees whose careers are waiting in the Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, and all bureaucracy that is widespread. They want guidance – they want to know who their new boss is and how their work will change in Trump’s presidency – but they get nothing. In fact, some high-level employees waited and waited until, after weeks of silence, they assumed they were no longer working, and packed their offices.

How Trump got out

CNN: After witnessing Trump’s first term, what are the things we should look for in a post-defeat transition?

Peaceful transfer

CNN: The US is known for its peaceful transfer of power. Is there a precedent for a defeated president or his government wreaking havoc on the way out the door?

KAB: Historically there have been some bitter defeats (see John Adams and Thomas Jefferson) but in modern times both parties have been touting their ability to peacefully transfer power. During the 2008 campaign, Bush’s national intelligence director, John Michael McConnell, had arranged for Obama and his Republican rival, Senator John McCain, to get a report with thirteen of the most important national security issues. Once, during the last two months of the 2008 campaign, Obama and McCain found themselves sitting at the same table in the Roosevelt Room, with Bush sitting between them, when they discussed the authorization of $ 700 billion by Congress to save a sinking market.

Bush and Obama respect each other. At the May 2012 opening of the official portrait of George W. and Laura Bush at the White House, Obama said, “President Bush understands that saving our economy is not just a matter of Democrats or Republicans, it is an American priority. I will always be grateful for that.” Contrast with President Trump reportedly did not invite President Obama to his portrait at the White House.

There’s no way Trump would somehow refuse to leave

CNN: Trump is not the type to quietly leave. What things can he do if he wants to throw a gear into a government machine?

KAB: He could refuse to go, but I didn’t see that happen. There is a discussion on the left, especially Bill Maher, so that is something that is on people’s minds. I have trouble imagining

Trump sat on the steps of the Capitol with hundreds of thousands of people cheering for his departure.

Former presidents have traditionally admired each other, even after being forced out of the office. After Ronald Reagan spoke at the opening of the library Jimmy Carter Carter said, “I now understand more clearly than I ever have before why you won.”

Jimmy Carter apologized to George W. Bush for the dedication of the Bush library for being too harsh on him, especially for his outspoken criticism of the war in Iraq. “Oh, shut up,” Bush answered. Can you imagine that happening with Trump and whoever replaced him, whenever that happened?

What if he wins?

Encouraging bold

CNN: No President has been impeached, released and reelected. You can imagine that if he wins, Trump will feel braver than anyone in history. How does Trump treat offices in the second period as the final winners?

KAB: I think he would feel brave to take whatever action he wants. When I interviewed him for my book, it was not long after the release of Mueller’s report and he felt like he had been released. He was frankly excited and wanted to talk about how he thought he had done more than any president in history. So I can only imagine his reaction being reelected after being impeached. Much of what he spends his time doing is arranging only with his supporters in mind and if he is re-elected that will prove the overwhelming power of his electorate. I think he will criticize journalists and the so-called “deep state” even more than he does today. That won’t be a good sight.

There is no historical precedent for Trump

CNN: Is there another president who came to the unpopular White House and then won the unpopular re-election? Are there divisive presidents like Trump?

KAB: I think George W. Bush is very divisive but not so far. His approval rating has jumped since leaving office. And like Trump, he was elected without popular vote. Bush followed in his father’s footsteps and remained largely on the sidelines. He watched his approval rank jump because the absence actually made the heart grow. I can’t see Trump staying on the sidelines.

President unpopular and second term

CNN: What can we learn from the terms of the two unpopular presidents during their re-election and winning against hope (I’m thinking of Harry Truman here or Richard Nixon)?

KAB: If you see Nixon and Watergate, winning by a narrow margin only makes it more paranoid and irrational and causes his resignation. That example is not a good sign.

Trump and the successor to the GOP

CNN: We are far into allegations here, but I wonder if Trump wins, how will he treat Mike Pence, who has been a loyal soldier during this first term. It’s hard to imagine someone with Trump’s reality show sensibility just handing a stick to someone like Pence, who no doubt doesn’t have Trump’s talent for drama, as the next logical GOP candidate. What does history tell us?

KAB: Trump is not loyal to people just because they are loyal to him. I think he would treat Mike Pence well if he was re-elected because Pence would logically help him convince evangelical voters to stay with him. But I don’t think that loyalty will last long and Trump can support others if Pence runs for 2024. That won’t translate into long-term support unless it’s in his favor.