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What is the political cost of a coup d’état? – Rodrigo Perez



What is the political cost of a coup d'état?  - Rodrigo Perez

Our generation no longer has the right to underestimate Jair Bolsonaro.

We underestimated almost thirty years when the then non-church deputy, outwardly harmless, used the parliamentary tribune to defend executioners and attack democracy.

We underestimated him in 2018 when we thought “a history of conflicting statements” would set a low ceiling for Jair Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign.

We underestimated the last three and a half years whenever we treated Bolsonaro like an idiot, a dumbass who did not understand what kind of project was being implemented in practice. The goal was not to govern in the usual sense of the word, but to destroy the institutions of liberal representative democracy. And this project works effectively. Impossible to deny. Since the fall of the dictatorship, Brazilian democracy has never been so shaky.

Many continue to underestimate now, in May 2022, less than half a year before the presidential election. We underestimate Bolsonaro’s ability to effectively lead a coup d’état in Brazil. There are those who say that at the right time the military will not support, the prime ministers will not respond to the call and the coup attempt will be thwarted, as happened on September 7th.

Those who think so have the wrong idea of ​​what a “coup d’état” is. They view the coup as an event that happens at a certain point in time, as if it had to happen a month and a day. They believe that the reversal only occurs during H.

The “coup”, however, is something complex, the result of a medium-term process, the slow and constant destruction of the institutions of the battered regime. After the completion of the process, you can even clearly say the moment (month and day) of the outcome of the coup. But this moment is not the hour of the X revolution. This is just its denouement, the final chapter of a long-announced tragedy.

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A revolution does not only happen when it ends. It happens from the moment it starts happening.

Since 2018, it has become commonplace to see the general threaten other authorities of the republic, armored vehicles of the Armed Forces conduct exercises to provoke the legislative and judicial authorities. Increasingly, the Armed Forces are claiming powers that the Constitution does not give them. The name of this blow!

The revolution is already underway. Whether the outcome of the process will be victorious for the scammers is another matter.

It’s just that a coup d’état is a complicated thing even for conspirators. It is not easy and always involves risk. You don’t start a coup just by placing cannons in the streets. It is necessary to enlist support at home and abroad, to suppress opponents and avoid a backlash that fatally leads the conspirators to the cemetery or to prison.

It seems obvious to me that it will not be possible to counter Bolsonarist’s coup with a bullet, in a direct confrontation. There are no armed and trained people ready to defend the institutions of democracy. Jair Bolsonaro and his accomplices enlisted the support of those who know how to kill, who have the know-how of violence: members of the armed forces, employees of various police units (prime managers, civil police, federal police, federal traffic police). , etc.) With very few exceptions, these people are Bolsonarists. And those that aren’t are not available in sufficient numbers to justify armed resistance.

But there are other forms of resistance. It is quite possible to increase the political cost of the coup for the conspirators. This is the priority today.

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Por example, ao invés de polemizar com Bolsonaro no Twitter, series muito mais útil ce Anitta usasse ceu prestígio internacional para denunciar o golpe de Estado em curso not Brazil. The same goes for other artists, public figures and digital influencers who have supported democracy. The whole world already knows that Bolsonaro is a misogynist, a homophobe, a racist and does not care about the preservation of the Amazon. The world should now know that he is plotting a coup d’état in one of the most important countries on the planet.

The elections will play a fundamental role in the development of the coup. All polls show that Lula is likely to win. But there are victories and victories. The manner in which the victory is given will be critical to estimating the cost of the coup for the scammers.

I explain.

If there is a second round, Lula will definitely win by a margin of just over ten points. He will win 55 to 45, 57 to 43, something close to that. The thirty days that separate the first from the second round will be a period of intense agitation for a coup, attacks on the TSE, threats and interrogations at the polls. In this situation, the coup will cost the scammers less. Since Bolsonaro is competitive in the second round, it would be more appropriate to make a coup with an argument about electoral fraud.

It is true that Lula’s victory in the first round will not prevent the coup from being completed, but will make it more costly for the conspirators. It is more difficult to say that electoral fraud can elect a candidate even in the first round. The movement towards the completion of the coup must be much more abrupt. There would be more risks.

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Lula needs to win the election in the first round. And there is no electoral terrorism here. The terrorist in this story is the current president of the republic.

Bolsonarist’s coup must be condemned and dealt with now. But for this we need to clearly understand that the revolution has already begun.

The fact is that a coup is never a single, isolated event that occurs overnight. It’s always a process.

*This article does not necessarily represent the views of the Revista Forum.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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