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What frustrates a great summer opening

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Harvard University students will take online courses, even those who live on campus.

The reopening of a large summer pandemic in the US, it turns out, has gone off track.

“Basically, we see what happened in New York in March, except it happened in several metropolitan areas in the country,” Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency doctor and professor of public health at George Washington University.

“And we don’t have the political will and public will to force closure like we did in March.”

There are consequences to reopening so quickly

The first Covid-19 case reported in the US was on January 21. At the end of April, more than one million Americans were infected. At that time, states such as Florida had outlined plans to reopen even when New York, the epicenter of the initial earthquake, had counted more than 22,000 deaths and 300,000 cases.
A few weeks to June, there were two million cases. On Wednesday, less than a month later, the country occupied three million new cases of the corona virus. This is one day after reporting the highest one-day count so far with 60,000.
More than 90% of the US population is under house orders in early spring because of the many cases that bring the health system in several states to the brink.
Still, the Trump administration is eager to get the economy started again. Protests against orders for shelter erupted from Washington state to western New York. In late May, many countries began to lift restrictions despite warnings that expanded testing and better contact tracking and maintenance options were needed.

Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert, said “divisions” and partisanship throughout the country had contributed to the failure to stop the surge of uncontrolled cases.

“From experience historically … when you have no unanimity in approaching something, you are not as effective in how you handle it,” he said Thursday in the 19th FiveThirtyEight’s Podcast weekly.

He added, “When you compare us with other countries, I don’t think you can say we are fine. I mean, we are not.”

Wen said most countries were now living as a result of reopening too quickly – and failure to have an adequate national coronavirus strategy.

“The American people have made extraordinary sacrifices to bring us to where we are now,” said Wen, a former Baltimore health commissioner.

“Tens of millions of people have lost their jobs. Children are out of school and are losing valuable time and unfortunately we are in this position where it seems we have wasted this sacrifice time supposedly buying us.”

33 countries upward trend in the case of average daily

Many states have temporarily stopped or rolled back plans to reopen. Those who account for more than 40% of the US population have delayed reopening, Goldman Sachs reported Thursday. Other countries with 30% of the population have reversed part of their plan.

Washington has largely abandoned plans to reopen to the state.

At least 33 countries have tended to rise in average daily cases – an increase of at least 10% from the previous week.

CNN medical analyst Dr. Celine Gounder, an internist, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist, said most states took “half-hearted” steps to combat the spread of the virus, noting, for example, that tighter shelter orders could be implemented. earlier than March and April.

“If we all locked together and took that two month period to do what we needed to do by preparing and meeting the gate’s criteria (to reopen) and then all being lifted slowly, we would actually be in a very different place, right now, “he said.

‘A piecemeal approach’ and ‘mixed message’

Countries such as South Korea, Germany and Taiwan have succeeded in slowing the spread of the virus with measures that include moving quickly to monitor those who are quarantined and conducting extensive testing and tracing.

“Other countries have been able to combat this because they have a nationally coordinated strategy rather than a piecemeal approach combined with a combination of messages and even insults to science and public health that are shown by some of our public officials,” Wen said. “We really don’t need to be in this position.”

In Florida, health officials reported on Thursday 8,935 new Covid-19 cases and at least 120 deaths.

Florida, California, Arizona, and Texas constitute 50% of new infections.

Texas on Thursday set another record for the highest increase in one-day deaths by 105 – one day after reporting the second highest daily count of new cases at 9,979.

Louisiana, despite progress in recent weeks, has increased the level of community distribution, forcing New Orleans to restrict bars and restaurants to 25 customers inside and bar bar seating.

Arizona has led the country for more than a month with the highest average of seven days of new corona virus cases per 100,000 people, according to an analysis of CNN data from Johns Hopkins University.

Even California, which has been praised for implementing initial restrictions, has seen infection rates rise in Los Angeles to levels not seen since April.

“If the goal is to open a school in the fall, maybe all we have to do is not open a bar in the summer,” Wen said.

Possible ‘double whammy’ in fall

The national surge in the case came less than three months before the start of the flu season, which health experts warned could coincide with the new wave of Covid-19.

“We can face a double blow coming in autumn,” Wen said.

“So, you will have many patients who come with the same types of symptoms of fever, shortness of breath, coughing and it will really drain our PPE supply because patients who come, you don’t know what they have. So you have to treat them as if if they have Covid. And that will be a big pressure on our health care system – for beds, for ventilators, and more importantly, for our health workers. “

This is not the year to miss a flu shot.

“The health system will be overwhelmed by Covid in most countries this fall and winter,” Gounder said.

Fauci and others say there is still time to change the wave of the pandemic across the South and Southwest.

But countries need to start stopping their reopening, expanding testing and tracking, and encouraging physical distance and wearing masks.

“I hope we don’t need to shut down,” Fauci said on Thursday at an event hosted by The Hill.

“I think it will be something that is clearly extreme. I think it will not be seen very, very profitable … So instead of thinking in terms of returning it to total closure, I would think we need to get a stop state in the process of opening them. . “

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