Despite the fact that public opinion polls in the latest polls on the intention to vote for the presidency of the Republic present slightly divergent figures, all credible polls show that a victory for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first round is quite possible. In this context, the importance of the so-called “useful vote”, that is, the vote cast by a voter who did not give preference to a candidate, but makes a choice with the aim of ending the dispute without the need for a second round, increases.

According to a poll published last Saturday by Ipespe, 68% of voters prefer the result to be determined in the first round. This movement has already been discovered by the campaign of Ciro Gomez (PDT), a candidate who has even lost supporters within his own party and militants who have sided with him in recent years. These are the people who defend the vote for Lula in an election that was intended from the start as a “plebiscite” between the PT and the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

:: Ipec: Lula is gaining momentum and can win in the first round ::

According to political science professor Myra Goulart of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), the two components add up to the growth of the “useful vote” movement in presidential elections. 2022 The first is something that has been around for a long time and is associated with the rejection of politics by a large part of the population. The other is the threat posed by Bolsonaro’s candidacy.

“There are those voters who see politics as a waste of time, who say, ‘I don’t want to leave the house to vote again’, this is nothing new. But there is also a concern that the results of the survey will not be respected. We have normal elections, we have an extremist with electoral vitality, Bolsonaro. In 2018, this happened for the first time: a far-right candidate with vitality. This has never happened in the new republic,” he points out. outside.

For Goulart, Lula’s eventual victory in the first round will reduce the chances of contesting the results – a constant threat from Bolsonaro for a long time to come, as the presidential election will come at the same time as the election of thousands of parliamentarians across the country. In theory, if he puts into practice the idea of ​​disagreeing with the results of the polls, Bolsonaro will not find a response, since the election of Lula would happen on the same day as the victories or re-elections of deputies, senators and even governors. who also win without having to vote in the second round. In this context, useful voting becomes important.

“Useful voting is common all over the world. Elections have room for new proposals, ideas, programs. it is likely that the closer to the final stage, votes for candidates who are not electorally viable will tend to migrate to other candidates,” he explains.

Political scientist Claudio Couto of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) is betting on vote migration in these last days of the campaign, especially in the case of potential Ciro voters. In his opinion, part of the supporters of the pedetist should migrate to Bolsonaro, but most of those who change their vote at the last minute should stick to Lula, who can thus confirm the victory in the first round.

Kouto in charge of the channel “There is no salvation outside politics” on Youtube, notes that “this is an election different from others, and there is a lot at stake.” He recalls that the trend towards useful voting is more or less characteristic of the final stretches of pre-election disputes. However, the motivation is greater than usual this time around, and Bolsonaro’s repulsion could strengthen this move.

“When we look at polling data, we see that at least half of Ciro voters, when asked, say they can change their vote. Simon Tebet has the same number. In the case of Lula or Bolsonaro, this percentage is much lower. between 10% and 20%. A last-minute change associated with a stronger candidate is much less likely to change when voting for a weaker candidate at the electoral level,” he comments.

What should be the position of the PT campaign?

In Couto’s opinion, Lula’s campaign must work subtly to attract the votes of those who are undecided, or people who have favored other candidates. He explains that it’s important to avoid a campaign that says something along the lines of “don’t vote for Ciro or Simone because they don’t stand a chance, but I do,” as it could alienate voters and make new alliances more difficult to form. in a possible second round.

“We must proceed from the simplest premise: every candidate is looking for votes, and for this it is necessary to present yourself as the best option, and not speak negatively about the preferences of this voter. Say: “Vote for me.” have a knack for it,” he notes.

Mayra Gular adds by emphasizing the need to emphasize that this is not a “normal” election. In other words, it is necessary to reinforce the thesis that we are talking about the democratic institutions of the country.

“It should be clear that we are facing not only Bolsonaro’s authoritarian escalation, but also economic behavior that is devastating public policy, education, health care, infrastructure. There is a possibility that the country will enter a state of turmoil. opportunity should be a great banner that can unite voters and lead Lulu to victory in the first round,” he concludes.

Editing: Rodrigo Durao Coelho