month Augustlike what happened in July, it was another loss period for most Treasury Direct bondsthat follow the same problems. Investor perception of the country more serious financial problems and inflationary pressures acquires more and more clear contours and even received extra caution associated with political uproar.
Luis Cesta, Analytical Officer at Fintech Monett, explains that the beginning of the month was negatively impacted by global problems with economic consequences delta variant of the novel coronaviruswhich is easier to convey, but the cloudy situation on the domestic market soon caught the attention of investors and further reduced the yield on these bonds in August.
“Concerns about COVID-19 persist, but during August the problem was predominantly internal, with political, economic and financial issues,” he says. The shopping cart emphasizes that any indications of “a certain lack of discretion and financial responsibility are severely hampering the market“.
Installment payment discussions preliminary, increase in value Auxílio Brasil (new name of the Bolsa Família program) this is new gas stations, which includes the forgiveness of up to 90% of corporate debts, influenced the investor’s mood… Added to this ideological clashes between President Jair Bolsonaro and STF (Supreme Court), who called investors’ warnings about possible institutional crisis…
In this scenario of fears and uncertainties, bond prices tend to be lower, while the rate offered in exchange for investment is higher. In practice, investors trade more because of the price of the paper and demand a higher interest rate in exchange for the risk associated with government bonds.
biggest fall among Treasury Direct bonds stayed withIPCA + (which pays for the country’s official inflation change over the period plus a pre-fixed interest) maturing in 2045., with a decrease of 9.46% in August… With a minimum investment of R $ 37.29, Yesterday, this article suggested a yield of 4.63% per annum, plus the official national inflation rate for the period (IPCA).…
Among the securities available for investment to small investors, only securities related to Selic ended the month positively with gains of 0.47% and 0.20% on maturities in 2024 and 2027., in that order. But only the 2024 Selic Treasury performed above 0.24% of the savings return in August.…
Check out the performance of this month’s games
* Securities that do not have accumulated returns for a year or 12 months are available for a shorter time and therefore there is no yield calculation.
A brand to market can bring great volatility to investments in Tesouro Direto, increasing their potential profitability or even making up for losses, as happened in August with inflation-linked bonds with fixed interest rates…
But it’s worth remembering that this fluctuation only affects investors who buy back their investments before the expiration date “agreed” with the government.… If you bring the bond to maturity, a “government-agreed” yield is guaranteed at the time of purchase.
READ ALSO: Growing interest: is it better to invest alone in fixed income or in funds?
What to expect in September?
the same fears which followed the financial market and damaged the market value of government bonds starting fromremains in the spotlight of investors in September… “The meeting of political and economic news should continue. bringing volatility, especially from fixed rates– says Basket.
The House Commission on Constitution and Justice (CCJ) postponed reading yesterday seems auspicious MP Darcy de Matos (PSD-SC) at the PEC, which allows for payment of court orders in installments. The postponement is a setback for the government, which yesterday intended to issue an opinion in order to open a review period of two sessions for a conclusion.
Also yesterday, the government sent a budget proposal for 2022 to Congress, along with Brazilian Auxilio. However, the amount of resources allocated for the social program is the same as in 2021 and amounts to 34.7 billion reais. Bolsonaro intends to increase the grant, but the adjustment still requires congressional approval.
Political uproar and clashes between powers will take on a new chapter on September 7 when demonstrations in support of Bolsonaro are scheduled. Yesterday, in another call to action, Bolsonaro said that “he will change the fate of Brazil within the four lines of the Constitution, he will not raise his sword and utter a few words.”
In response to the specter of inflation, the Ministry of Mines and Energy and Aneel (National Electricity Agency) announced the creation of a new tariff flag called “Water scarcity” at R $ 14.20 for every 100 kWh consumed. The additional amount will be charged from September 1 to April 30, 2022. The fee represents an increase of 50% over the R $ 9.49 set for the second level of the red flag. And this is the second adjustment since June, when the most expensive banner was reconfigured by 52%.
“With each passing week, Focus Bulletin shows a deterioration in the scenario expected by the market,” Cesta emphasizes. The latest survey of market institutions by the Central Bank shows that the expectation of official inflation in Brazil, as measured by the IPCA, rose from 7.11% to 7.27% this year, the 21st consecutive high. For 2022, the forecast has been increased from 3.93% to 3.95% in the sixth upward revision in a row.…
With the new “Water shortage” banner, these more negative forecasts should increase significantly… Second André Braz, Price Index Coordinator, Brazilian Institute of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre)The new surcharge means that the electricity bill will, on average, be 7.35% more expensive. Thereby, IPCA should close the year at 8.2%…
Due to the fact that the turmoil has not escaped the market for interest rates and government bonds, Basket prefers inflation-linked bonds with a shorter maturity… O Tesouro HICP + the term available to small investors today, expiration date 2026… It could be purchased yesterday for a minimum amount of BRL 58.50, with IPCA return for the period plus a flat rate of 4.41%.
“One thing is for sure: since you are a Brazilian investor, remember that In Brazil, inflation always surprises itself from time to time, and so it is ideal to always have a portion of the portfolio protected from this impact.“, write down XP Investimentos Fixed Income Analysts Camilla Dolle, Francisco Lobo and Rodrigo Sgavioli, in the report.
According to them,to protect your investment from inflation, bonds linked to IPCA + are generally more recommended than, for example, post-fixed rates, which pay a percentage of the CDI), or fixed rates.
“The reason is that, despite the forecasts of economists, there is no absolute certainty about what the base interest rate (Selic) or IPCA will be in the future, since the scenario can always change over time,” they say.
Given the uncertain economic scenario and all financial problems, interest paid on IPCA + bonds increased “accordingly compared to the beginning of the year, which is an opportunity”, according to XP analysts.
1 in 1 Treasuries Direct fell 9.5% in August due to political and fiscal risks – Photo: Getty Images
Treasury Direct fell 9.5% in August due to political and fiscal risks – Photo: Getty Images
Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.
The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
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