A series of polls in the swing (and not-swing) state released Wednesday made this reality clear.
* A
Quinnipiac University poll in Texas have a race at Trump 44%, Biden 43%.
How bad are the numbers for Trump? To put good points on it: Very bad.
The last Democrat who won Arizona at presidential level was Bill Clinton in 1996. In Texas, there has been no Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 who brought the state in the presidential election. Ohio was one of the most swinging states in the presidential election at the beginning of this century, but it moved a lot towards Trump in 2016, when he took it with 8 points. And Wisconsin is widely seen as the country that Trump most likely reversed in 2016 to back it up. (Polling in
Pennsylvania and
Michigan – the other two old Democrats won by Trump in 2016, showing he is behind Biden at the moment.)
And according to the tabulation made by CNN’s David Wright, the Trump campaign has already spent more than $ 1 million on advertising in Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona since the beginning of the year. Which means that even with Trump’s choice messages transmitted to their TV screens, voters in these countries aren’t persuaded – at least not yet.
Now, let’s see what these numbers mean for Trump’s chances of reaching 270 in November.
Start here: Trump gets 306 electoral votes in his 2016 victory. Now, consider this 2020 scenario (all calculations are done via
270towin.com):
* If Trump loses Texas (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose for Biden, 270 electoral votes to 268 electoral votes.
* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 278 to 260.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 279 to 259.
* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 276 to 262.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 271 to 267.
The point here is not to say that this election map scenario is locked. Besides, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 election. (And, yes, I’m counting.)
Instead, they should note that Biden, at present, has many different avenues for 270 electoral votes, while Trump has an increasingly thinning number. And of course, the poll released on Wednesday doesn’t even deal with potential problem spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – all of which he won in 2016.
For what it’s worth, Trump’s best path / most likely for a second term is to lose one or both of Michigan and Pennsylvania and hold every state he won in 2016. If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he will add 270 to 268 election wins over Biden. If he only loses Pennsylvania, he will win with 286 electoral votes. Lose only Michigan, and Trump has 290 election votes and a second term.
“The country was polarized as it was two months ago, and the contest’s path has essentially remained unchanged, with Biden holding a comfortable leadership in the national vote and having many lines for 270 election votes.
“While daily developments give cable television networks something to talk about, today’s big news will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and another day after that. But the basics of the race remain unchanged.”
That is very correct. To this day, Biden has more ways than anywhere else in the campaign to date to get 270 electoral votes. And Trump has less.
Can that change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the election map looks like Hillary Clinton will roll over to win over Trump. Heck, looks like that until it falls.
Election is not today. Trump will run a well-funded campaign – and possibly evil – who are trying to paint Biden as untouched on every issue – from immigration to China to race. And as the last few months have reminded us all, events can and do intervene to change what we think we know about the November elections.
All of that is true. Nothing has changed the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult election map today, with few suggesting that major changes will come in the near future.
