The election map tilts towards Donald Trump now

Published

4 years ago

June 4, 2020

Goodwin Townsend

The election map tilts towards Donald Trump now

A series of polls in the swing (and not-swing) state released Wednesday made this reality clear.

* A Quinnipiac University poll in Texas have a race at Trump 44%, Biden 43%.

How bad are the numbers for Trump? To put good points on it: Very bad.

The last Democrat who won Arizona at presidential level was Bill Clinton in 1996. In Texas, there has been no Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 who brought the state in the presidential election. Ohio was one of the most swinging states in the presidential election at the beginning of this century, but it moved a lot towards Trump in 2016, when he took it with 8 points. And Wisconsin is widely seen as the country that Trump most likely reversed in 2016 to back it up. (Polling in Pennsylvania and Michigan – the other two old Democrats won by Trump in 2016, showing he is behind Biden at the moment.)

And according to the tabulation made by CNN’s David Wright, the Trump campaign has already spent more than $ 1 million on advertising in Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona since the beginning of the year. Which means that even with Trump’s choice messages transmitted to their TV screens, voters in these countries aren’t persuaded – at least not yet.

Now, let’s see what these numbers mean for Trump’s chances of reaching 270 in November.

Start here: Trump gets 306 electoral votes in his 2016 victory. Now, consider this 2020 scenario (all calculations are done via 270towin.com):

* If Trump loses Texas (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose for Biden, 270 electoral votes to 268 electoral votes.

* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 278 to 260.

* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 279 to 259.

* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 276 to 262.

* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and wins wherever he wins in 2016), he will lose to Biden 271 to 267.

The point here is not to say that this election map scenario is locked. Besides, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 election. (And, yes, I’m counting.)

Instead, they should note that Biden, at present, has many different avenues for 270 electoral votes, while Trump has an increasingly thinning number. And of course, the poll released on Wednesday doesn’t even deal with potential problem spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – all of which he won in 2016.

For what it’s worth, Trump’s best path / most likely for a second term is to lose one or both of Michigan and Pennsylvania and hold every state he won in 2016. If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he will add 270 to 268 election wins over Biden. If he only loses Pennsylvania, he will win with 286 electoral votes. Lose only Michigan, and Trump has 290 election votes and a second term.

As an old political handicapper Stu Rothenberg writes in the post-Memorial Day column:

“The country was polarized as it was two months ago, and the contest’s path has essentially remained unchanged, with Biden holding a comfortable leadership in the national vote and having many lines for 270 election votes.

“While daily developments give cable television networks something to talk about, today’s big news will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and another day after that. But the basics of the race remain unchanged.”

That is very correct. To this day, Biden has more ways than anywhere else in the campaign to date to get 270 electoral votes. And Trump has less.

Can that change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the election map looks like Hillary Clinton will roll over to win over Trump. Heck, looks like that until it falls.

Election is not today. Trump will run a well-funded campaign – and possibly evil – who are trying to paint Biden as untouched on every issue – from immigration to China to race. And as the last few months have reminded us all, events can and do intervene to change what we think we know about the November elections.

All of that is true. Nothing has changed the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult election map today, with few suggesting that major changes will come in the near future.

Goodwin Townsend

General internet buff. Hardcore music maven. Typical foodaholic. Friendly student.

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets Ptix.bm For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

“Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS ‘There will be room’

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS 'There will be room'

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Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Published

1 year ago

December 19, 2022

Herb Adkins

Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.