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Studies show that most cases of Covid-19 are not detected



Gupta: 200K deaths by October may be underprediction

A research team looked at the number of people who went to a doctor or clinic with influenza-like illness that had never been diagnosed as coronavirus, influenza or other viruses that usually circulate in winter.

“These findings support a scenario where more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections appeared in the US during March and estimates that more than 80% of these cases remain unidentified when the outbreak spreads rapidly,” Justin Silverman of Penn State University, Alex Washburne from Montana State University and colleagues at Cornell University and elsewhere, wrote.

Only 100,000 cases were officially reported during that time period, and the US still reported only 2.3 million cases on Monday. But there was a lack of coronavirus testing kits at the time.

The team used data collected from each state by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for influenza-like diseases. The CDC uses this data to track the annual seasonal flu epidemic. He asked the doctor to report all cases of people who came for treatment for fever, cough and other symptoms caused by influenza.

“We found clear spikes and anomalies in outpatients such as influenza (ILI) during the COVID-19 epidemic which correlated with the development of the epidemic in various countries in the US,” Silverman and colleagues wrote.

“The surge in ILI non-influenza outpatients is far greater than the number of confirmed cases in each country, providing evidence of a large number of possible symptoms of COVID-19 cases that remain undetected.”

These are people who show up at the doctor’s office or clinic with symptoms. Most people with Covid-19 probably never seek testing treatment for it.

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“The ILI surge across the US seems to peak during the week beginning March 15 and then decline in many states the following week; special exceptions are New York and New Jersey, the two countries hardest hit by the epidemic, which have not yet begun to decline in the week ended March 28, “the team wrote.

How the corona virus testing fills valuable time

The researchers could not count every case, so they carried out a series of calculations to ensure their data matched what was known about the country’s population and about the annual flu epidemic, as well as with hard data collected from actual testing of coronavirus patients. They also took into account the growing evidence that people began to avoid hospitals, clinics, and doctors’ offices as soon as there was a pandemic, and after the pandemic lockdown began.

“If 1/3 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US seek treatment, this surge in ILI will be associated with more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US over a three-week period from March 8 to March 28, 2020 , “the researchers wrote.

Case fell after that. “We see this big peak that ends on March 22 in most places,” Silverman told CNN. Cases have declined since then, he said – but the data collected by the team did not include the past two weeks.

The team is now trying to get closer to pandemic surveillance in real time. Data from the CDC comes about two weeks after the person visits the doctor. They hope their approach – called syndromic surveillance – can complement data collected from actual testing. “In the dream world, everyone who comes will do the test. We will be able to get full coverage of the pandemic,” Washburne told CNN.

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Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.



Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.



Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

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