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The nuclear program of the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the most egregious cases of deceit in international politics. Publicly, Iranian leaders say their nuclear program is peaceful. Religious principles are invoked to convince the unwary of the peaceful intentions of the regime. Secretly, Tehran continues to do what it has always done. On May 11 of this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Tehran of not disclosing information related to the detection of atomic particles at old and never declared objects in the context of the Joint Global Action Plan (JCPOA) inspection regime. .
The said agreement or plan stipulates that in the event of such a breach, the IAEA will have to explain to Iran the reasons for its concern and request clarification. Hence, a restraining legal sanction. The significance of this recent discovery, which confirms others and points to a cover-up scheme, is clear: Iran has not complied with the requirements imposed by said agreement. During the term of the CAPG, the IAEA demanded access to undeclared facilities and expressed its dissatisfaction with Tehran, but never definitively declared that Iranian refusals were indicative of a violation of the agreement and a perversion of its spirit. Thus, some quarrels.
In the recent past, when the IAEA was asked to officially comment on Iran’s behavior, it claimed that Tehran complied with the stipulated conditions. Where are you going, IAEA? Other “minor” issues not neglected by Britain, Germany, and France, such as the development of ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear warheads, were publicized but were never perceived as serious enough to prompt and justify the development and adoption of a much more serious reliable and comprehensive inspection regime. The unvarnished truth is that the Islamic Republic’s non-compliance with the JCPOA Agreement has always been a public secret that all parties involved have never clarified because they had no political interest in it. States, especially foreign bureaucracies and the IAEA itself, are as fond of diplomatic failures as politicians are of electoral defeats.
However, the most interesting aspect of the Iranian deception campaign has more to do with its failure than its success. As I said, the agreement was sacralized by fear of the political costs of its failure. Whoever criticized him was immediately appointed comment The media is like a crazy Trumpist or an inveterate warmonger. The nuances and the most egregious facts are rarely properly considered in public debate, such is the degree of ideological polarization. In Israel, some prominent analysts argue that the deal’s main merit is that it allows it to “buy time” and maintain the (fictitious) option of diplomatic deterrence, despite all the evidence that the passage of time only harms the national interests of the country’s Jewish state.
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Conscious of the political investment made and the costs associated with its failure, Tehran has used the sacralization of the agreement and the benevolent “use of doubt” that well-meaning diplomats and European, North American and Israeli progressives love. In other words, Tehran has taken advantage of the perceived “urgency” (ethical) of the agreement to continue to “hide” its true agenda in plain sight. The agreement, which everyone knew about, has been violated and which continues to cloud Iranian plans with ambivalence and various hesitation on the part of a large part of the international community. This is without a doubt one of the strangest cases of deception.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tragically shows how delicate and dangerous a conflict with a nuclear power can be. The breadth of Russia’s actions in Ukraine (etc.) and the West’s restrictive caution are largely the result of Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons. Moscow is protected by a nuclear shield. North Korea, a regime completely dependent on Beijing and often acting in accordance with the instructions of the Central Committee of the PRC, repeatedly provokes Japan and the West with nuclear tests. Little can be done to contain Pyongyang. A North Korean missile could hit Seoul in minutes.
Pakistan also enjoys equal “strategic autonomy”. Of course, it was no coincidence that the remaining Taliban leadership sought refuge in Pakistan after their brethren were massacred and overthrown in the first two years of the Afghan war. The ideological affinity between Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns explains the migration, but the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear power has certainly influenced the calculations of the Taliban and the Americans, especially given the central role of special forces bombing. Repeated violations of Pakistani airspace would certainly anger Islamabad. What does all this have to do with Iran and the failed Joint Action Plan (JCPOA)? Einstein said that “imagination is more important than knowledge.”
