Lookalikes and political sponsorship are common in all elections. It is normal for candidates to support each other in order to be able to split the votes. But voice transmission is not always automatic and works. An example of this is Minas Gerais. Of the governors elected since 2002, only Fernando Pimentel (PT) in 2014 received the direct support of an elected president in this election, in the case of Dilma Rousseff (PT).
So far in this year’s elections, the two leaders of the presidential polls, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), have candidates for the government of Minas, Alexandre Calil (PSD) and Carlos Vian (PL). .), respectively. However, neither the one nor the other, as recent studies have shown DATE TIMEstill managed to convert sponsor support into a specific vote to boost voting.
For the Graduate School of Propaganda and Marketing (ESPM) professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino, the way votes are passed has changed and today “in addition to being tied to an electorally strong sponsor, it is necessary to convince the voter that he has the same ideals as at the godfather.”
“Consciousness of voters has changed. The psyche of the voter 10-15 years ago is not the same as today. Previously, they often said: “Ah, such and such a pole even chooses.” This no longer works because the voter is more critical. He needs to convince himself that the indication has the same characteristics as the indicator. The voter today understands that in order for his voice to migrate, it is not so much for the person, but for the ideals that he defends, ”explained Vitorino.
“For example, a candidate who wants to capture part of Bolsonaro’s voters will have to show himself as a conservative, opposed to the PT and theoretically defending the anti-corruption agenda. On the other hand, those who want to get Lula’s votes will have to show themselves to be more welfaristic and more progressive in matters of morality,” said the political marketing consultant.
Sociologist and director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers (Abrapel) Mauricio Garcia follows the same line as Vitorino and points out that for this association to be automatic, the campaign strategy must make this alliance credible to voters.
“It is possible and there is a place for these associations. But you should know that during the election campaign, communication, this candidate will be presented to the population if he inspires confidence. In theory, “positions” are elected, now it is necessary to show who this position is, whether this position is reliable, whether there is a point in this union, or the post will not simply be “mandatory,” he said.
Strategies
last search DATE TIME, published last Monday (25), pointed to a serious problem for the former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Alexander Kalil (SDP). Whoever has the support of former President Lula, who leads the presidential vote in the state, need to convert PT support to specific vote.
With the support of Lula, Kalil overtakes Romeu Zema (Novo), who, with the support of Felipe D’Avila (Novo), falls from 48.3% of the vote to 27.5%. However, it is worth noting that in the stimulated study, when alliances were not informed by respondents, Zema easily stays in the lead and wins in the first round when only valid votes count..
And precisely in terms of what political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino pointed out, it seems that Kalil’s campaign is working to get Lula’s votes in the state. According to a poll conducted by the report at 5:47 pm last Thursday (28), Kalil has posted 66 posts since the publication that officially announced the alliance between him and Lula on May 19. Of the 66 publications, 34 refer to the PT or their union, that is, slightly more than half. The content of the posts is mostly speech like: “I’m with Lula, because he, like me, cares about people.”
According to election researcher Mauricio Garcia, while polls still don’t show this automatic association between Lula and Kalil, it tends to be easier as there is no other name in the state that can compete with Kalil in this area.
“The alliance between Lula and Kalil seems clearer to me. We know there are old Kali statements criticizing Lulu and PT, but it will be up to the campaign to be able to argue with the voter that this was a different moment. But theoretically, there is an empty seat in Lula’s electorate for Kalil, because there is no other candidate in Minas who has a clearer connection with the PT,” Garcia explained.
Senator Carlos Viana (PL) also has his candidacy for governor backed by a presidential candidate. When voters are told that he has the support of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), his voting intentions rise by 12.3 percentage points, from 3.7% to 16%, according to Data Tempo.
In Viana’s case, the main challenge is to get Bolsonaro to actually participate in his campaign and make public statements and gestures of support, something that hasn’t happened since the senator left the MDB in April to become a candidate. for the government from Minas. Viana’s name has not yet been officially announced as a candidate. The PL left the decision to the party’s National Executive Body.
The official launch of the campaign will give a real measure of support
Abrapel Director of Institutional Relations Mauricio Garcia says that only with the start of the official campaign, from August 16, especially with free time for elections on radio and television, on August 26, it will be possible to have a greater dimension if this support influences the choice of voters.
“With the campaign, with the freedom of advertising and marketing that the candidates will have, it is only in the campaign that the effect of this support can be measured, in fact. Because this is the only way to have more room for crystallization in the mind of the voter to associate one candidate with another,” he said.
The profile of the current election and shorter campaign period also made such a strategy more difficult, he said.
“Today’s campaign has a shorter period, but it has the potential to work with such a strategy. Of course, depending on the communication adopted by the teams to convince voters that the alliance is credible,” explains Garcia.
Mega-irradiation can be negative, political scientists say
If, on the one hand, support can lead to the transfer of votes, on the other hand, the supported candidate can only inherit a refusal. Here is what professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino explains.
“At the moment we live, the main godparents (Lula and Bolsonaro) are rejected. So, when you stick with the godfather, you have a chance of not being like him in essence, which brings specific votes and can still inherit rejection. Using a godfather can do a lot more harm than good,” Vittorino muses.
In the state of Minas Gerais, Lula (Portugal) and Bolsonaro (Poland), despite leading the vote, are also at the top of the rejection list. While the current president leads with 43% rejection, PT has 30.1% of voters who would not vote for him at all.
For Abrapel director Mauricio Garcia, this scenario is delicate for governor Romeu Zema (Novo).
“His situation is difficult because even internally he may even want to get close to Bolsonaro, but he also knows that Bolsonaro is radioactive. If he leans too far, he can infect himself and get hurt, and he won’t be able to close the door right away if Lula wins,” he said.
“Theoretically, a candidate for the Senate is associated with a candidate for government,” says the researcher.
Mauricio Garcia, director of institutional relations at Abrapel, explains that historically state-elected senators have been linked to elected governors.
“The Senate, as a rule, is very connected with the governor. A wave of governors who end up electing senators. Lula elected numerous senators in 2010, mostly from the Northeast, but in no case was a senator or governor elected,” he explained.
“The government candidate who fires, who gets strong, also tends to pull the Senate candidate. Especially in elections where there is only one Senate, as now,” he added.
