Political dispute in 2022 will determine the direction of exchange sectors | Variable income

For those who do not want to miss any opportunity that arises in the middle of this foggy path, like blue chips (shares associated with large companies with consolidated performance in their sectors of activity, high liquidity and good financial and operating results) should be the safest – or least dangerous – attraction, with particular attention to exporters, dollarized…

2021 received the 2020 bill

“In 2021, the markets have coped with the impact of all the measures that were taken in 2020.due to the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in both developed and developing countries, which made their monetary policy more flexible, with lower interest rates and various monetary and tax incentive programs, “he summarizes … Philip Villegas, strategist Excellent investment… “But everything has a price and the bill comes.”

The result of this equation was bottlenecks in production chains, a mismatch between supply and demand, and inflation. “The year was harder for developing countriesthat was supposed to tackle the issue of economic growth, which was less affected in the developed countries, which were a little more cautious about liquidity, but the fact is that inflation has affected all countries, ”emphasizes Villegas.

In Brazil, concrete facts reinforced the negative scenario: PEC dos Precatórios, Auxílio Brasil and the cost ceiling crisis… “It was a ‘surprise’ that sparked a rift in confidence between investors and the government, which took advantage of the second half of the year to focus on 2022, due to the presidential elections, with measures to increase its popularity,” says Villegas.

2022: a (very) uncertain future

International stage sets part of the tone in the attractiveness of risky assets in Brazil, especially in the stock market. The resumption of tighter monetary policy, especially in The United States should encourage foreign capital flight from developing countries.

This movement will be especially driven by national policy scenarios, in addition to the role of the central bank, continuing the cycle of high Selicz, base interest rates – strongly favoring fixed income.

“The political scenario is still very open about candidacies,” says Villegas. “With every survey that highlights a more market-oriented name will increase the attractiveness of Brazilian assets… And vice versa.”

The recommendation of a genius strategist: “have a conservative stance with good fixed income investments“. However, if the investor “does not want to stay away from variable income and miss out on good opportunities that may occur even in this scenario of great uncertainty, best placed in large companies, blue chipswithin consolidated sectors that somehow manage to separate from the Brazilian economy, i.e. dollarized exporters who may have lower volatility “…

Despite the fact that we had a completely different scenario due to heightened competition, banks are also a sector that can be attractive, according to Villegas, but there are some factors that could negatively affect the sector. “Banks are gateways for foreign investors, but also an exit“, – he notes. “The electoral scenario can greatly influence this movement. Moreover, the scenario for the loan should also get a little more complicatedtaking into account the growth of the level of family debt ”.

“Our purchasing is targeted at companies subject to non-discretionary consumption, which is basic consumption that should occur even with lower disposable income and higher interest rates.“, states Thomas Awad, founding partner of the manager 3R Investmentsstrengthening this positions will largely depend on “how to design the election result.“. In the opposite direction he indicates the sale of shares in sectors “very sensitive to loans and / or interest, or sectors in which competition is very high.“.

“possible victory of the third candidate is likely to be a catalyst positive because it represents real change., with more rationality, a more realistic economic vision and a desire to carry out a minimum of reforms that are more than necessary, ”says Awad.

Like Villegas, Awad also recommends a defensive stance for investors. “focusing on capital preservation, prepared for the worst, and in the possibilities of relative valuebut be prepared to switch to a more optimistic approach if conditions turn out to be favorable. ”

also for Phil Soares, Head of Stock Analysis Department Orama, “2022 will be a year with a reduced business outlookboth due to the recent hike in interest rates and due to events such as elections and the FIFA World Cup. [de futebol]”. In his opinion, the high volatility that the political scenario should bring will be has a stronger influence on state-owned companies such as Petrobras and Eletrobras, the privatization process is still ongoing.

Soares also emphasizes that Product companies “must benefit from the high dollars and high prices of their products.“. He bet on retail and consumer companies, especially those with lower real income. Sectors basic services such as gas, electricity and sewerage, in addition to the banking sector, should have less volatility, according to analyst Órama.