First of all, some context: every two years the United States holds midterm elections to determine the control of Congress, which consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Thus, Tuesday’s race included 435 seats in the lower house (representatives) and 35 seats in the upper house (senate). Why 35? Because 100 senators are elected to a continuous six-year term, and only a third of them are elected every two years.
So far, the Democrats have held a narrow majority of five seats in the House of Representatives; in the Senate, a Democratic majority was secured only by a decisive vote by Vice President Kamala Harris.
At the time of writing this newsletter, the vote count is still pending – with the possibility that the Senate race won’t be decided until Dec. 6 as Georgia could remain “open” if Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican) don’t score though 50% of the votes. While the Associated Press is predicting a GOP win in both houses, the race is so close that it’s hard to be sure at this point.
The only possible conclusion is that this America remains deeply divided two years after Biden was elected and in the first election since the infamous attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
What else do these elections tell us?
- there is a deep refusal de Biden: According to a poll released today, more than two-thirds of voters who voted in the US midterm elections do not want President Joe Biden to be re-elected in the 2024 presidential election. In fact, the popularity of the current president is at a very low level. , only 41.4% approval and 53.5% disapproval;
- Inflation and rising cost of living have been determinants at the time of the vote – and the Democrats could not fully respond to the attacks of the Republicans on this issue.
- The Democratic base took to the streets: Democrats were able to capitalize on their electorate’s outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision to overrule Rowe’s decision. Wade, who secured the right to abortion, with many assume that this factor was decisive in the midterm vote. Concerns about the fragility of democracy were no less influential—remember that Biden campaigned to warn of the threat posed by Republicans and, in particular, by voters backing Donald Trump on this issue;
- blake houndshell, in this article The New York Times also highlights low quality of some Republican candidates in this election to explain why there was no “red wave”, noting that Mitch McConnell himself, the Republican Minority Leader in the Senate, expressed concerns about the quality of the elected.
One thing is for sure: if the Associated Press predictions come true and the Republican Party gains control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, it will not be easy for Biden as president. Donald Trump, who promised to make a “big announcement” on November 15, may have the decisive momentum here to enter the US presidential race in 2024.
