At the moment, President Jair Bolsonaro has Auxlio Brasil on hand, replacing Bolsa Famlia, as the government’s main social showcase. The new R $ 400 social welfare program was launched at a time when the economic consequences of the new coronavirus pandemic are becoming more evident, such as inflation above 10%, rising interest rates, persistent unemployment and population growth. the poverty that causes 19 million Brazilians to starve. The president’s opponents have begun to take advantage of this situation, and it has everything to grow in the pre-election debate, especially if the country plunges into recession. Senator Simona Tebet (MS), the pre-candidate for the post of President of the Republic’s ICBM, was the first to draw attention to this. As she embarked on the campaign trail, she made it clear:

“This mission has a cry. It demands urgency. Because our people, the Brazilian people, are dying of hunger. After hundreds of thousands of Brazilians have died in their homes due to dismissive, insensitive and negative public health in their homes, “Brazilian citizens are in short supply, there is a scenario of total poverty on the streets,” he stressed.

Raquel Borsoi, a political risk analyst at Dharma Politics, said Bolsonaro’s ability to garner support from more voters is “still questionable.” “The President is betting on the logic that, in addition to Internet campaign structures, Planalto seeks to consolidate support from the political mainstream. From this point of view, the PL, PP, and possibly Republicans and other central parties, they will provide the power of state platforms. , which Bolsonaro does not have, “says Raquel, then warns:” It is known that the president, despite a moment of weakness, himself controls the state machine and the budget. The protagonist gives him “, although he lost 40% of voters who accepted him on Planalto …

Dialogue with the base

The analyst also emphasizes that Bolsonaro may strengthen dialogue with his support base, insisting on some of the elements that brought him to power in 2018.

For Guilherme Casares, professor at Fundao Getlio Vargas (FGV), there is a real chance that Bolsonaro will not be re-elected in 2022, mainly due to the profile of his main opponents. “Without a doubt, Bolsonaro has two very strong rivals for 2022 – ex-president Lula and ex-minister Sergio Moro,” he notes.

According to Casares, both of them threaten the candidacy of the pocket-men, but for different reasons. “Bolsonaro and Lula almost argued in 2018 if it were not for the prison of P.T. and Moro, the figure in the seat on the right, end up taking votes from Bolsonaro, which ultimately weakens the candidacy, or at least part of it. arguments. It’s a simple task, ”he emphasizes.

The political scientist also believes that, as in other re-election campaigns, the public apparatus will be used in favor of the president. “What is Bolsonaro’s big advantage over 2018? He has more resources. The state apparatus will certainly work in its favor, and this, as we know, in the case of Brazil, is a decisive element, ”he explains.