History says Trump’s low approval rating is unlikely to move

Published

4 years ago

June 14, 2020

CNN poll: Trump sees big drop in approval rating

What is the point: We still have five months until the general election, which, in theory, has plenty of time for the president’s race to change. Indeed, horse racing polls have sometimes shifted far between this point and Election Day.

However, the presidential approval rating has historically not moved much since June of the election year being Election Day.

It seems very likely at this point that Trump’s approval rating will be south of 50% and his net approval rating (approval – rejection) becomes negative when people vote. That should be very troubling for Trump, given the strong relationship between approval ratings and chances of re-election.

There are 13 presidents who are running for another term in the election era (since 1940). For each of those presidents, I compared the Gallup average (or, in the case of 1944, the Office of Public Opinion Research) June approval rating and they estimated approval rating on election day.

The average president has seen changes in his approval rating by only 3 points from now until the election. That will only make Trump a mid-40s at best. Trump’s approval rating is similar during the middle semester of 2018, when his party lost control of the DPR.

The net approval rating tells the same story. The president on average has a net approval rating shift by only 6 points from this point forward. Given Trump’s net approval rating at a negative low until mid-teens, a 6-point increase will land him with a net approval of around -7 to -10 points on Election Day. Once again, that’s where he is in the middle of 2018 semester.

See the 2020 presidential election ballot

Trump, it’s not over yet. Maybe the president’s ranking has shifted. Harry Truman saw a 20-point increase in his net approval rating in the last five months of the 1948 campaign. On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson’s net approval rating dropped by about 15 points in the final months of the 1964 election.

However, we are only talking about two presidents out of 13 whose net approval ratings rose by more than 10 points in the last five months of the campaign. One of them went in the wrong direction for the president. Trump needs his net approval rating to go up by more than 10 points to achieve a positive net approval rating.

Trump’s fate of former Vice President Joe Biden will not be perfectly correlated with his approval rating, but it will be highly correlated. Our last CNN / SSR poll, more than 90% agreed Trump said they would vote for Trump. More than 90% of disappointment said they would vote for Biden.

One previous estimate of FiveThirtyEight’s Silver Nate suggested that a president with a 40% approval rating in June before the election only had about 20% chance of winning the next election. That’s mostly jibes with more sophisticated model which takes into account many indicators.

Can Trump be one of the 20%? Clear. Don’t round 20% to 0%.

Remember, however, Trump’s approval rating has been great from any president before him. There is no strong reason to think that he will get a greater than average increase in his approval rating and therefore the chance of his re-election.

Trump’s inability to move his own numbers is probably why he chased Biden so much. Biden is less defined than Trump, and dragging Biden down might be Trump’s only chance of winning.

Goodwin Townsend

General internet buff. Hardcore music maven. Typical foodaholic. Friendly student.

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets Ptix.bm For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

“Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS ‘There will be room’

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS 'There will be room'

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Herb Adkins

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Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Published

1 year ago

December 19, 2022

Herb Adkins

Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.