Republican strategists are increasingly worried that Trump is headed for defeat in November and that he might drag other Republicans with him.

Seven GOP operators not directly linked to the presidential re-election campaign told CNN that Trump’s response to the pandemic and subsequent economic downturn had significantly undermined his efforts for a second term – and that the effect began to hurt the Republicans more broadly. Some of these operations ask not to be identified so they can speak more honestly.

All this shows how difficult it is to run as incumbent Republicans almost anywhere in 2020. Strategists who spoke to CNN are concerned that Trump has become an obligation for Republicans who need to expand their coalition beyond the President’s core support base.

Whereas a few months ago, they were convinced of the party’s opportunities across the board, many strategists who spoke with CNN had lowered their expectations, and now spoke in terms of minimizing what they feared could be an eraser for the GOP. This made them hope for a small, rather than terrible, defeat similar to Mitt Romney’s small defeat in 2012, when Republicans lost two Senate seats, than John McCain’s performance four years earlier, when they lost eight.

“Republican candidates need something more like Romney in ’12 and less like McCain in ’08,” said Liam Donovan, GOP strategist in Washington.

The broader fear among Republicans is that the election will be a referendum on Trump’s performance during the pandemic. Coupled with the crater economy, the effect can be devastating by suppressing the faithful of the Republic and turning off swinging voters.

That one or two blows could knock the GOP out of power in Washington – and that’s what the strategists hope the Presidential election team can successfully turn the race into an unpleasant choice between Trump and Biden.

But these efforts have become increasingly difficult against the background of a pandemic which has destroyed many of the economic benefits that the Republicans hope to base their re-election argument on.

“This is one thing that (Trump) cannot change the subject,” said Republican strategist. “This is not a political opponent, this is not working and he has never had to deal with anything like this.”

The Trump Campaign believes that Americans trust the President when it comes to handling the economy and they will choose him to be the one to lead the recovery.

“The economic message is strongly echoing, especially at a time like this,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said. “President Trump is clearly returning us to that position. He did it once, he will do it again.”

However, the concern for Republicans outside Trump’s orbit is that if there are no signs the economy will change in November, that would be an impossible argument for Trump’s campaign.

“There is no sort of V-shaped recovery many people think he is dead in the water,” said Republican strategist.

Trump Party

In the four years since winning the GOP nomination, Trump has strengthened his position in the party. That has made it more difficult for Republicans in Congress to distance themselves from them without being hostile to their headquarters. That, said Republican operators, risks alienating voters who might consider the GOP but don’t like the President.

“This is a very, very difficult environment. If you have a bachelor’s degree and you live in the suburbs, you don’t want to vote for us,” said an old Republican congressional campaign consultant, adding there were serious concerns about bleeding support from both elderly and independent men. who describes himself.

The party’s main concern, some of these Republican members, said that they had to hold the majority of the Senate. The task requires Senate candidates to appeal to suburban voters who turn to Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections in reaction to Trump.

But that goal is complicated by how dependent Republican candidates are on the maximum number of votes for the President, even in Trump campaign countries not hoping to win. GOP Sens. Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine could not afford to buy a depressed Trump base in their state, even when they played their independent identities to win the election.

And concern for the Republicans goes beyond endangered incumbents – including Sens Martha McSally from Arizona and Thom Tillis from North Carolina. There is even a chance, in a bad year for Trump, that the GOP seats held by the GOP in Georgia and Montana could be problematic, Donovan said.

Distance from the President

Meanwhile, the crater economy has intensified the need for Republican senators to distinguish themselves in a subtle way from Trump and his notes. Scott Reed, political director at the US Chamber of Commerce and a veteran of the Republican campaign, said that the presidential re-election campaign was “always” a referendum on incumbents and his party.

Reed said incumbents also had to voice their localized personal achievements and areas where they had been independent of Trump without explicitly alienating pro-Trump Republicans in their states.

This line aims to combat the most consistent line of criticism from Democrats – that Collins has voted in accordance with the Trump administration in everything from judicial appointments to health care to the release of the President on impeachment charges – without having to deny Trump himself.

Republicans point out that while Democrats and progressive interest groups have spent millions of dollars on TV and digital advertising to fight incumbents, the GOP and its own PAC allies have not been fully involved in the air war against Democratic challengers.

“The reality is that although massively spent by liberal black money groups, the Republicans are still in a good position to hold the Senate majority in the fall,” said Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The Trump campaign played down the concerns of Republican candidates, showing that the united GOP offered the best chance of winning across the board in November.

“Every candidate who wants to win will compete with the President,” said Erin Perrine, deputy director of communications for Trump’s campaign. “He has energy, enthusiasm and grassroots infrastructure. If you are a candidate, you want to be part of the movement.”

But what Republican professionals say will be very helpful if the President holds fast to the encouraging message of bringing the country back from a pandemic.

“When he did it right three days in a row, it really hit the numbers,” Reed said. “We need command performance on message discipline.”