Donald Trump has historically been strong on his basis, and that’s the problem

Published

4 years ago

June 8, 2020

Trump keeps lying about this one thing. And it's a problem.

Both polls show Trump with a substantial advantage among self-identified Republicans: 93% to 5% Biden (Monmouth) and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).

What is the point: Trump has made the game clear during his presidency to satisfy the Republican base, and opinion polls show that this effort is clearly bearing fruit. The base did not leave him, even though the total number remained weak.

Trump’s problem is that he is pretty much making use of this support reserve.

See Trump and Biden’s head-to-head vote

After making good business to achieve a score in the primaries against essentially no competition, Trump won a little less than 95% of the Republican primary vote as a whole. That looks very similar to a vote for a general election which places it in less than 95% of Republican votes. It will be difficult for him to get over it.

Indeed, Trump has higher support among Republican voters today than any Republican since at least 2000. You can see this at ABC News / Washington Post poll. That one, like Monmouth’s and NBC / Wall Street Journal, has Trump almost 95% (94%), while Biden remains at only 4%.

Originating in 2000, no Republican has ever had more than 91% of Republicans supporting it at this time in the ABC News / Washington Post poll. The average Republican has 84% of the Republicans behind him. The first basic strategy in the election made far more sense than one during the Trump era.

(The historical nature of these figures applies if we include independent people who rely on the Republic.)

Maybe Trump believes he doesn’t need to change his strategy because he ignores the advice of most people and still wins in 2016. That’s a mistake. Beyond the fact that there is good evidence that Trump outrun more than moderates than he ruled, Trump has more room to grow with a base in 2016. He scored only 74% of Republicans who identified themselves in ABC News / Washington Poll taken right around this point – the lowest of any Republican since 2000.

Where Trump is weak is outside the Republican base. In ABC / Washington Post (similar numbers for Monmouth and NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump stands at 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both are lower than any of the Republicans currently in the ABC News / Washington Post poll that began in 2000.

In other words, there is more potential support for Trump outside the Republican core base. Trump, it seems, is not interested in doing that.

If Trump doesn’t change things, he might find that the other party’s base is bigger than his. Biden won a greater share of Democrats in the average live interview poll (incl Polls NPR / PBS News / Marist College) came out this week (94%) than Trump won the Republican Party (92%). The average poll, as it applies for almost every year, noted more Democrats than Republicans in the country.

By continuing his base-first strategy, Trump made sure that he would not see the bottom fall out. However, he will find that actually gathering the coalition needed to win will be very difficult.

This story has been updated to include the results of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday.

Goodwin Townsend

General internet buff. Hardcore music maven. Typical foodaholic. Friendly student.

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

Portuguese historical films will premiere on 29 December.

Method Media Bermuda will present the documentary FABRIC: Portuguese History in Bermuda on Thursday, December 29 at the Underwater Research Institute of Bermuda.

A spokesperson said: “Method Media is proud to bring Bermuda Fabric: Portugal History to Bermuda for its 5th and 6th showing at the Bermuda Underwater Observatory. In November and December 2019, Cloth: A Portuguese Story in Bermuda had four sold-out screenings. Now that Bermuda has reopened after the pandemic, it’s time to bring the film back for at least two screenings.

“There are tickets Ptix.bm For $ 20 – sessions at 15:30 and 18:00. Both screenings will be followed by a short Q&A session.

Director and producer Milton Raboso says, “FABRIC is a definitive account of the Portuguese community in Bermuda and its 151 years of history, but it also places Bermuda, Acors and Portugal in the world history and the events that have fueled those 151 years.

“It took more than 10 years to implement FABRIC. The film was supported by the Minister of Culture, the Government of the Azores and private donors.

“Bermuda Media Method [MMB] Created in 2011 by producer Milton Raposo. MMB has created content for a wide range of clients: Bermuda’s new hospital renovation, reinsurance, travel campaigns, international sports and more. MMB pays special attention to artistic, cultural and historical content.

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Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS ‘There will be room’

Published

1 year ago

December 20, 2022

Herb Adkins

CRISTANO RONALDO CAN MAKE UP A GIANT IN CARIOCA AND PORTUGUESE TECHNICIAN SAYS 'There will be room'

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Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.

Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Published

1 year ago

December 19, 2022

Herb Adkins

Maestro de Braga is the first Portuguese in the National Symphony Orchestra of Cuba.

Maestro Filipe Cunha, Artistic Director of the Philharmonic Orchestra of Braga, has been invited to conduct the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra, as announced today.

According to a statement sent by O MINHO, “he will be the first Portuguese conductor to conduct this orchestra in its entire history.”

In addition to this orchestra, the maestro will also work with the Lyceo Mozarteum de la Habana Symphony Orchestra.

The concerts will take place on 4 and 12 March 2023 at the National Theater of Cuba in Havana.

In the words of the maestro, quoted in the statement, “these will be very beautiful concerts with difficult but very complex pieces” and therefore he feels “very motivated”.

From the very beginning, Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2 will be performed by an Italian pianist (Luigi Borzillo), whom the maestro wants to bring to Portugal later this year. In the same concert, Mendelshon’s First Symphony will be performed.

Then, at the second concert, in the company of the Mexican clarinetist Angel Zedillo, he will perform the Louis Sfora Concerto No. 2. In this concert, the maestro also conducts Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony.

“This is an international recognition of my work. An invitation that I accept with humility and great responsibility. I was surprised to learn that I would be the first Portuguese member of the Cuban National Symphony Orchestra. This is a very great honor,” the maestro said in a statement.

“I take with me the name of the city of Braga and Portugal with all the responsibility that goes with it, and I hope to do a good job there, leaving a good image and putting on great concerts. These will be very special concerts because, in addition to performing pieces that I love, especially Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky, I will be directing two wonderful soloists who are also my friends. It will be very beautiful,” concludes Filipe Cunha.

Herb Adkins

Proud web evangelist. Travel ninja. Creator. Freelance food nerd. Passionate bacon fanatic.