China probably plans to double its stocks of nuclear warheads this decade, including those for ballistic missiles that could reach the United States. Pentagon said in a message on Tuesday.
Even so, China’s nuclear forces will be smaller than that of the United States, which is estimated to have about 3,800 warheads ready for action and more in reserve, according to the report. China currently has “low-charge” nuclear warheads but is approaching the ability to launch nuclear strikes on air, land and sea. This is the first time the US military has revealed the number of China’s nuclear warheads.
The Trump administration has urged China to join a nuclear arms treaty with the United States and Russia to limit nuclear expansion between the three countries, but China refused. Chinese Foreign Ministry officials said their arsenal is not large enough to be included within the agreed limits. Chinese officials have said pressure on China to join the trilateral agreement should not be used as an excuse to abandon START, the existing US-Russian nuclear deal, which expires in February. It can be extended for up to five years if Moscow and Washington agree.
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A senior Chinese diplomat said in July that Beijing would be “happy” to join such an agreement if the US were willing to reduce its arsenal to the size of China.
The Pentagon said the growth forecast is based on factors such as Beijing has enough material to double its reserves without producing new fissile material.
The report says the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is striving to create a “conducive” international environment for national “rejuvenation.” They decided that their military forces should play a more active role in achieving their foreign policy goals.
China’s nuclear expansion is part of a broader effort to assert more power on the global stage with the goal of matching or surpassing the United States as a global superpower by 2049.
Party leaders also view a divided China as a weak China and will work towards “full reunification,” reintegrating Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau – on Beijing terms – by the end of 2049.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned of China’s plans three days before the report was published on Twitter.
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“As communist China seeks to at least double its nuclear arsenal, modernizing our nuclear forces and maintaining readiness are essential for a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” he wrote.
The Trump administration has used such predictions to justify spending hundreds of billions of dollars on modernizing the US nuclear arsenal.
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The plan, launched during the Obama administration, is to replace all major elements of nuclear forces – submarines, long-range bombers and ground-based missiles – over the next 30 years, with projections exceeding $ 1 trillion. This includes the costs of maintaining and operating forces and upgrading warheads and command and control systems. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden did not say if he will continue the plan if he wins in November.
The Pentagon also suggested that China could raise the level of nuclear alert. For now, he keeps his nuclear warheads separate from missiles and launchers, and he will need a warning to get them ready for war. The report says that evidence uncovered last year indicates China wants to keep some of its forces on alert, known as a “warning launch.” Thus, its silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles will be armed in peacetime and ready for launch at short notice. This is how the US ICBM forces operate.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
