Jair Bolsonaro has already decided that he will not reissue the ticket with General Hamilton Mouran in 2022 and will choose a new name for the runner-up in his re-election campaign. Suspicious by nature, the president believes that Murao was eager to take his place, and therefore prefers to choose for this post a person whom he strongly trusts – an indigenous pocket person who has no relationship with Congress, which would complicate life in the chosen case. this one began to flirt with the idea of ​​overthrowing the re-elected president by impeachment. It seems like an unnecessary precaution, but it makes sense from the point of view of someone who sees the conspirators from all sides and dismisses ministers with cabinets in the Palácio do Planalto for suspicion of treason. Bolsonaro could opt for this, shall we say, homemade solution if popular approval of his government improves and he regains his position in voting intent polls, in which he ends up in second place after Lula.

The president is betting on economic recovery and expansion of income redistribution programs to boost his popularity. However, this improvement has not yet occurred. An XP / Ipespe poll published on Friday 11 found that half of the population considers the government to be bad or bad. In October last year, there were 31% of them. In the second round of modeling, Bolsonaro sees himself as more distant from Lula. In May, PT’s advantage was only two percentage points (42 versus 40). In June, it rose to nine points (from 45 to 36). If the current scenario persists until 2022, Bolsonaro will be leaning towards Plan B, which Centrão leaders advocate. For them. the president must select cadres from a large party from a region of the country that does not fit Bolsonar as vice president. The President of the Progressistas and guarantor of the alliance of Centrão with former captain Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI) fits this profile.

With elections promising to be fierce, and Ciro Nogueira still committed to his campaign for re-election, there are those who advocate a more ambitious goal: an MP for a central party deemed independent and that, if he joins the coalition, could give him more air of moderation. The consumer’s dream is DEM. The president of the ACM Neto party has publicly stated that he will not support Bolsonara and that he is working on his own candidacy for the presidency. Pocketnarists are confident they can change their mind. They are considering offering ACM Neto a place of vice. Another possibility is to support his possible candidacy for the Bahia government, in which he will face the PT, and invite another DEM member for the position of vice president. Desirable Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco.

Elected by Minas Gerais, the second largest electoral college in the country, Pacheco came to the attention of the GDP sectors working to create a central nominee for the next presidential succession, and began to be cited as head of the electoral commission. SDP Gilberto Cassaba intends to invite him to join the party with the prospect of running for president. Pocketnaristas say that Pacheco will not run for president, regardless of the party of which he is a member, but that he can accept the post of vice president. They also state that if Bolsonaro regains popularity, PSD and DEM could start a re-election campaign. The point is that Bolsonaro’s best chance today is to have a professional politician who is well connected to Congress as an MP, which is not his preferred scenario. In other words: pragmatism has everything to prevail in the face of the ideological bias so dear to the former captain.