Our generation no longer has the right to underestimate Jair Bolsonaro.

We underestimated almost thirty years when the then non-church deputy, outwardly harmless, used the parliamentary tribune to defend executioners and attack democracy.

We underestimated him in 2018 when we thought “a history of conflicting statements” would set a low ceiling for Jair Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign.

We underestimated the last three and a half years whenever we treated Bolsonaro like an idiot, a dumbass who did not understand what kind of project was being implemented in practice. The goal was not to govern in the usual sense of the word, but to destroy the institutions of liberal representative democracy. And this project works effectively. Impossible to deny. Since the fall of the dictatorship, Brazilian democracy has never been so shaky.

Many continue to underestimate now, in May 2022, less than half a year before the presidential election. We underestimate Bolsonaro’s ability to effectively lead a coup d’état in Brazil. There are those who say that at the right time the military will not support, the prime ministers will not respond to the call and the coup attempt will be thwarted, as happened on September 7th.

Those who think so have the wrong idea of ​​what a “coup d’état” is. They view the coup as an event that happens at a certain point in time, as if it had to happen a month and a day. They believe that the reversal only occurs during H.

The “coup”, however, is something complex, the result of a medium-term process, the slow and constant destruction of the institutions of the battered regime. After the completion of the process, you can even clearly say the moment (month and day) of the outcome of the coup. But this moment is not the hour of the X revolution. This is just its denouement, the final chapter of a long-announced tragedy.

A revolution does not only happen when it ends. It happens from the moment it starts happening.

Since 2018, it has become commonplace to see the general threaten other authorities of the republic, armored vehicles of the Armed Forces conduct exercises to provoke the legislative and judicial authorities. Increasingly, the Armed Forces are claiming powers that the Constitution does not give them. The name of this blow!

The revolution is already underway. Whether the outcome of the process will be victorious for the scammers is another matter.

It’s just that a coup d’état is a complicated thing even for conspirators. It is not easy and always involves risk. You don’t start a coup just by placing cannons in the streets. It is necessary to enlist support at home and abroad, to suppress opponents and avoid a backlash that fatally leads the conspirators to the cemetery or to prison.

It seems obvious to me that it will not be possible to counter Bolsonarist’s coup with a bullet, in a direct confrontation. There are no armed and trained people ready to defend the institutions of democracy. Jair Bolsonaro and his accomplices enlisted the support of those who know how to kill, who have the know-how of violence: members of the armed forces, employees of various police units (prime managers, civil police, federal police, federal traffic police). , etc.) With very few exceptions, these people are Bolsonarists. And those that aren’t are not available in sufficient numbers to justify armed resistance.

But there are other forms of resistance. It is quite possible to increase the political cost of the coup for the conspirators. This is the priority today.

Por example, ao invés de polemizar com Bolsonaro no Twitter, series muito mais útil ce Anitta usasse ceu prestígio internacional para denunciar o golpe de Estado em curso not Brazil. The same goes for other artists, public figures and digital influencers who have supported democracy. The whole world already knows that Bolsonaro is a misogynist, a homophobe, a racist and does not care about the preservation of the Amazon. The world should now know that he is plotting a coup d’état in one of the most important countries on the planet.

The elections will play a fundamental role in the development of the coup. All polls show that Lula is likely to win. But there are victories and victories. The manner in which the victory is given will be critical to estimating the cost of the coup for the scammers.

I explain.

If there is a second round, Lula will definitely win by a margin of just over ten points. He will win 55 to 45, 57 to 43, something close to that. The thirty days that separate the first from the second round will be a period of intense agitation for a coup, attacks on the TSE, threats and interrogations at the polls. In this situation, the coup will cost the scammers less. Since Bolsonaro is competitive in the second round, it would be more appropriate to make a coup with an argument about electoral fraud.

It is true that Lula’s victory in the first round will not prevent the coup from being completed, but will make it more costly for the conspirators. It is more difficult to say that electoral fraud can elect a candidate even in the first round. The movement towards the completion of the coup must be much more abrupt. There would be more risks.

Lula needs to win the election in the first round. And there is no electoral terrorism here. The terrorist in this story is the current president of the republic.

Bolsonarist’s coup must be condemned and dealt with now. But for this we need to clearly understand that the revolution has already begun.

The fact is that a coup is never a single, isolated event that occurs overnight. It’s always a process.

*This article does not necessarily represent the views of the Revista Forum.