Young pan
Joao Doria is the preliminary candidate for the President of the Republic of the PSDB.

In 1950 PSD launched Christian Machado candidate for the presidency of the republic, but during the election campaign part of the party began to support Getulio Vargas (PTB). It was from this episode that the political world coined the term “Christianization,” a phenomenon that occurs when a legend abandons its official postulate in order to support another who has a better chance of winning. The situation is similar to the one faced Joao Doriatentative candidate for PSDBwhich is played at the Toucana Summit and passed by the senator Simone Tebet (MDB), chosen as the head of the candidature of the so-called third way. However, in the situation of the ex-governor, there are two main differences from the situation of Machado.

First, in the episode of 1950, the PSD supported the candidacy of Minas Gerais for the Palacio do Planalto until the end. In the case of Doria, the PSDB exposed the former governor of Sao Paulo in the open before the election period officially began. “The process of Christianization involves the registration of a candidate, that is, the candidate is offered to the voter. Here the process is different because Doria is not yet presented to the electorate. This is an internal party dispute. It doesn’t seem right to me to talk about the Christianization of Doria’s candidacy, ”the political scientist believes Lara Mesquita, FGV researcher. In an interview with Young panthe expert explains that what Doria is experiencing is a process that precedes Christianization.

To defend himself against what he calls a “coup”, the former São Paulo manager insists that he was chosen as a candidate during the PSDB party elections, but the fact is that his postulate has not yet been officially made public. at the congress abbreviations. Since March, the Tucan summit has made it clear that a representative of the third way will be chosen along with MDB e Citizenshipin an attempt to end the polarization between Lula (PT) e Jair Bolsonaro (PL). O brazil union was part of the movement of the self-proclaimed “democratic center”, but at the end of the negotiations he jumped off the ship and decided to launch a federal deputy Luciano Bivar (PE) to the presidential race, leaving the group with only Tebeta and Doria as options. Last Wednesday, the 18th, the presidents and other leaders of the parties met in Brasilia to review the results of quantitative and qualitative research commissioned by the group. After analyzing the data, the leaders decided that the parliamentarian had more opportunities to collect votes, especially for one reason: the emedebist has one of the lowest rejections of all presidential candidates. Since Tebeta is not yet on the list of candidates most known to the public, enthusiasts of his candidacy see the potential for an increase in polls in the coming months. Faced with a stalemate, the question to be answered is: what prompted the PSDB to play the provisional candidacy of Doria and support the emedebista postulation?

The former governor did not take off in the elections

Joao Doria was selected as the PSDB provisional candidate on November 27, 2021. The Sao Paulo candidate ran against the then governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leiteand with the former mayor of Manaus Arthur Virgilio. Roughly six months later, Doria is still parked and hardly going to vote. Jovem Pan, a member of the PSDB’s national executive committee, was ridiculed for the actions of the former governor of São Paulo in the elections. “Doria’s efforts are futile, the block has been standing on the street for more than five months and not only does not grow, but also falls in the polls,” said an old school toucan in stock. “Perhaps PSDB made these previews too soon. At that moment, it was believed that Doria had all the conditions for growth. Perhaps he lost support among leaders who did not see the materialization of this expectation of growth, ”the political scientist analyzes. looking for Institute for Social, Political and Economic Research (Ipespe) released this Friday 20, the former manager has 5% of the vote. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. PSDB’s worst performance in a presidential election was in 2018 when Geraldo Alkmin came in third with 5%.

However, for Lara, the scenarios for 2018 and 2022 are different and cannot be compared. “Alcmine ended the presidential race with 5% of the vote, but no one expected this, it was not predictable. So much so that the PSDB and Alckmin managed to form the largest coalition v.Aries sides do upLogin They were No plate presidential make Alkmin. Andm 2018, a people he had one expectation, before make process selective, from reproduce a Polarization PT-PSDB 2014, is not materialized. THIS behind This which about Alcmine he was abandoned on elite politicians. Ele he was Christianized,” explains the political scientist. In the last presidential election, João Doria himself abandoned Alcmín, his political godfather, teamed up with Jair Bolsonaro and launched the double BolsoDoria. “In 2022, Doria nto Only No adult us campaigns, as none believe which is he or grow during a campaign. He is not topics a confidence, no one bets on your candidacy, ”adds the expert.

Doria does not have toucan dome support

Lara Mesquita also notes that Doria was unable to form an alliance with the PSDB’s senior leadership. In the 2021 primaries, the approved rules determined that the votes of those who are part of the party will have equal weight with the votes of those who have a political mandate. In other words, Doria’s supporters, who do not have a political mandate, guaranteed him a victory in the primaries, and during these six months, the now ex-governor was unable to beat the internal resistance of the historical wing of the toucans, which includes politicians. from outside São Paulo, such as Senator Tasso Gereissati (CE) and former minister and former federal deputy from the state of Minas Gerais, Pimenta da Veiga. Doria’s other supporters ended up leaving the PSDB during the party, weakening Paulista’s support network. There is also an assessment that high dislike of the toucan – according to an Ipespe poll, 53% of voters would not vote for Doria at all, a level that is only lower than Bolsonaro’s 59% – makes Rodrigo’s candidacy for governor untenable. Garcia (PSDB) to Bandeirantes Palace. São Paulo is the jewel in the crown of the party that has led the state since 1994.

PSDB needs to restore benches in the House and Senate

The third point motivating Doria’s toasting is the high cost of financing the presidential campaign. Some leaders of the Toukan elite reject the hypothesis of allocating some of the party’s less expressive resources to a stillborn candidate. In 2018, the membership of the SDP in the Chamber was reduced by 46.3%, which drastically reduced the electoral budget allocated to the party. “There is a partabout broken which acha which No he does meaning highlight one amount So large from Resources one campaign presidential e a candidate which is notYes se showing viable. withEriya more effective move be resource us campaigns ddeputies, senators e governors. weighs, about everything, insofar aswith parties must have spectacle Minimum selective behind get ter access to Resources public. Andce spectacle This is measured a leave off the bench Camera From Deputies,” Lara clarified. During this week, PSDB National President Bruno Araujo said that at the end of this process, the unity of the acronym will prevail. When the crisis hits the toucan’s nest, it remains to ask the party leader if he really believes in this forecast.