Political scientist and commentator Fernando Schuler, also a professor at Insper Business School in São Paulo, is one of the few scholars in the field in the country who seeks to analyze the political scenario from an independent perspective. Elections, he says, define narratives created by candidates that have little to do with the complexity of public policy. Read the main excerpts from the interview below.

In addition to the pandemic, Brazil today is facing a difficult political and economic situation. In this scenario, how does Mr. say to see the 2022 election?

The big question is what will be the agenda that will somehow predetermine the elections. We had as many economic problems in 2018 as we do today. However, the economic agenda was not the central theme of the campaign. During elections, all the complexity of the political and economic world is flattened out and replaced by grandiose narratives. In the end, one of them becomes the hegemon and wins the election.

Some analysts say the agenda will focus on important economic issues. what mister think about it?

This is what I call wishful thinking. A recent poll showed that with people supporting Bolsonaro, the agenda will focus on arguments such as “they didn’t let us govern”, “we couldn’t do what was necessary to defeat the system”, “Captain Bolsonaro deserves more one term to complete the restoration work. On the other hand, you will have a great storytelling around Lula, in the spirit of “we were happier in the past”, “Brazil had a great moment with Lula”, and “only Lula can restore everything that was destroyed. in recent years”. So I think it’s too optimistic to imagine that some kind of serious economic discussion will drive the big pre-election debate.

What should be the agenda among the so-called third way candidates?

You will have a story by (former judge and former minister) Sergio Moro (pre-Podemos candidate) saying that “Brazil must resume the fight against corruption” and “Lava Jato was an unprecedented movement in Brazilian history that led to the condemnation of great politicians and businessmen, but it was interrupted by the political system and needs to be re-breathed.” Now, thirdly, there will also be a traditional narrative, which I would call “administrative”, typical of the liberal center, the main representative of which will be (Governor of São Paulo) Joao Doria from the PSDB. He should return to the logic that “Brazil needs a shock to capitalism”, which was the banner of (former senator and former governor of São Paulo) Mario Covas in 1989.

Given these narratives, what are the chances of Moro or Doria making it to the 2nd round?

Moro had growth when he announced his candidacy, but he had difficulty growing further. I’m not saying he can’t grow. But it’s hard. He needs a more difficult argument than being judge Love Jato. The fight against corruption is not the main task of Brazil today. In the case of Doria, I see an even bigger problem. He will have to find a way to show the mass electorate that Brazil needs a manager and a modernization program. His strongest argument is “I made a vaccine, we have butantane” and “Sao Paulo is growing bigger than Brazil”. Doria has also broken bridges with the conservative electorate, and he will need him to take Bolsonaro out of the game. It has structure, speech, and things to show. This will be quite a challenge.

Information from the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.