The most important problem the Germans will face in early 2022 is the same as a year earlier: the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is a fundamental difference: at that time, the recently launched vaccination campaign still gave hope that the end of the pandemic was near.

But after a year and more than 100 million doses of vaccine, the number of new infections in Germany is significantly higher than at the beginning of 2021.

In order to get more people vaccinated, mandatory vaccinations may be introduced soon.

This, however, would mean breaking promises by leading politicians, as former Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel of the CDU, her successor Olaf Scholz of the SPD, and FDP leader Christian Lindner, now finance minister, have ruled out such a commitment. …

The measures taken to combat the pandemic in Germany are splitting society – while most people support vaccination, there is a vocal minority that is against it.

Ambitious climate plans

The new government of Center-Left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) wants to maintain a positive momentum when it comes to action to tackle climate change. “Don’t be afraid of more progress” was the name of the coalition agreement, referring to the motto of the 1969 former Chancellor Willie Brandt (SPD) “Don’t be afraid of democracy”.

The ruling coalition promises to take steps to protect the climate with renewable energy and, preferably, phase out coal energy earlier than planned – perhaps by 2030.

What German voters think of the new government’s plans will determine the election results in four states: Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony. According to recent polls, the Social Democratic resurgence is expected to continue after years of decline.

Will the CDU move to the right?

At the start of the new year, the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) are settling into their new role as an opposition party after 16 years in power and expecting a new impetus when a new party chairman is formally confirmed, now in January.

Friedrich Merz, 66, won the backing of a majority of the party’s 400,000 members in December after two failed attempts to take office. Merz, a former parliamentary leader and enemy of Angela Merkel, is a staunch conservative and should push the CDU further to the right.

In February, the choice of the German president should not come as a surprise. The current president of the SPD, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, wants to remain in office. His chances are looking good – so far no one has shown interest in the work.

In addition, the parties in the current government coalition have a majority in the Federal Assembly, consisting of members of the Bundestag and representatives of the 16 states responsible for electing the next president.

Foreign policy

In terms of foreign policy, 2022 could be a time for Germany to stand out, especially during its G7 presidency. The increasingly triumphant threats from Russia against Ukraine and China in world politics are just two of the main challenges in this area.

New Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party has signaled that she will take a different approach from the government of former Chancellor Angela Merkel on China. She wants to pursue a values-based foreign policy and become more active in human rights issues in totalitarian states.

But political scientist Johannes Warwick of Martin Luther Halle-Wittenberg University (MLU) predicts that Berbock “will soon feel the limitations of office and the pressure of realpolitik” (politics or diplomacy based primarily on practical rather than ideological considerations).

“I see this especially in the question of whether human rights can really be considered the final reference point for foreign policy action,” he explains.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems eager to continue his predecessor’s low-key foreign policy approach. “There must be cooperation in the world, including with governments that are very different from ours,” he told the German state-run television station ZDF after taking office.

In this context, it will be interesting to see if the new government will side with US President Joe Biden and get drawn into a stronger confrontation with China.

Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) says Germany needs to “stop worrying that German industry has no future without a Chinese market, and take a much stronger and more strategic position and see China as a systemic rival. “.

Hoff believes that when it comes to Russia, it is necessary to use “the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to put pressure on Moscow” and “stop the project in case of aggression against Ukraine.”

Plans for Europe

As far as Europe is concerned, the coalition agreement articulates a long-term goal of transforming the European Union (EU) into a “federal European state”. These ambitious ideas have not been heard for a long time.

At the same time, the new government in Berlin is calling for a relatively liberal asylum policy at the European level, which may prove elusive.

The further unity of the EU and refugees is a controversial issue – this became clear at the end of last year in two countries of the bloc that are of particular importance for Germany: Poland and France.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, head of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), said that the policies of the new German government threaten the sovereignty of European countries.

France has traditionally maintained a close partnership with Germany, but the two countries have not come to an agreement on some important issues.

France will have a presidential election in April – and unwanted immigration should be the main theme of the campaign.

President Emmanuel Macron wants to use France’s imminent six-month change as president of the Council of the European Union to protect the bloc’s external borders, which is not a priority for the Berlin coalition.

Political scientist Hoff considers the “European political ambitions” of the new German government not only correct, but necessary. “If the EU wants to become more sovereign and confident – and it must, if it wants to hold out – it cannot avoid further restructuring.”

But Warwick dismisses the goal of a European federal state as unrealistic: “This will quickly collapse in the face of European political realities. Nobody in Europe really wants that. ”

Instead, he praised the concept of “service leadership” for Europe, which can also be found in the coalition agreement: “Because it is about using Germany’s power and influence in a way that does not elicit defensive reflexes, but instead makes room. for maneuver “.

in the footsteps of Merkel

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel has played a particularly important role in the global diplomatic arena and absolute leadership in European politics. Olaf Scholz will want to follow in her footsteps – and will he agree?

Henning Hoff notes that Scholz has demonstrated such important leadership qualities as “discretion and pragmatism, focused on finding solutions.”

Johannes Warwick believes that Scholz “cannot compete with the experience of Angela Merkel.” However, he adds that Germany has a lot of political weight, regardless of who the chancellor is.

Scholz, “with his humble and conciliatory nature, seems like a fitting successor to the ‘eternal chancellor,’” Warwick said.