Libya plunged into chaos in 2011 after expulsion and assassination of longtime dictator Colonel Muammar Gaddafi… Since then, it has been divided between two administrations, in the east and west of the country, with the support of rival foreign powers.
Mr. Hifter’s 14-month campaign to take over Tripoli ended in failure in June but he pulled Russia and Turkey into the war even deeper. With oil production shutting down, the battered economy has sagged further and living conditions for Libyans, who have experienced prolonged power outages due to the summer heat, are rapidly deteriorating.
Much of what comes next, however, may be determined by foreign sponsors of the war, who, according to UN investigators, turned the conflict into an extensive proxy war, one cargo plane at a time.
The recent escalation of the conflict began in January, when Turkey intervened decisively, sending drones, air defense systems and thousands of Syrian mercenaries to support the beleaguered Tripoli government.
Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt all responded with a flood of military aid to Mr. Hifter’s forces, which quickly morphed into a giant undeclared military airlift.
In the period from November 1 to July 31, investigators counted 339 sorties by the Russian military, mainly from the Khmeimim airbase in Syria, with a potential volume of up to 17,200 tons. These flights were operated by mercenaries hired by the Wagner Group, a private military company with ties to the Kremlin, which became a key element of Mr. Hifter’s forces.