Vibration State Map Tapers, But Biden Still Leads Trump: NPR

For now, it looks like President Trump has bounced back a bit after hitting the bottom.

The president was on a low level compared to former Vice President Joe Biden, but while Biden still has the edge, things have narrowed somewhat, according to the latest analysis from NPR’s Electoral College.

The biggest change is that Florida has tightened in a month and a half since last analysis and again in the draw category. This means that, including states leaning towards Biden, he is just below the 270-vote threshold required to win the presidency. He currently has a 268: 169 lead on the Electoral College.

What have we changed

Florida from slope D to tossing
2nd Nebraska from Lean R to Toss Up
Virginia from lean D to probable D
New Mexico from lean D to probable D

Florida

We’ve made just a few changes, but one important one: Florida is returning to its traditional place as a tossing state. While Biden maintains a slight lead here, Trump has gained an average of 4 percentage points since late July.

New Monmouth University Overview in Florida, Biden climbed 5 spots among registered voters, and NBC / Marist poll the race came to a standstill with 48% of likely voters.

Polls have shown conflicting results when it comes to Hispanics. Monmouth had Biden by a wide margin among Hispanics, but still lagged behind what Hillary Clinton got with the group in 2016. This is also reflected on the ground, as Democrats there are concerned about the possibility of registering enough Latin American voters amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Both polls showed that Trump and Biden divide older adults. This is bad news for Trump considering he won them by a wide margin in Florida in 2016. This is what worries Republicans – not only in the presidential election, but also in the vote.

Biden lags behind Hispanics but lags behind voters 65 and older, which has consistently been observed this year. How these unpredictable shifts play out is unclear, and this could mean volatility that voters will vote for.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks Tuesday in Tampa, Florida, during a roundtable with veterans and military families.

Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images

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Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks Tuesday in Tampa, Florida, during a roundtable with veterans and military families.

Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images

2nd Nebraska

Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District with 2 points in 2016. Second Lady Karen Pence and Lara Trump, wife of Trump’s son Eric, nominated the presidency in the Omaha area last month. Democratic parts of the district have registered Democrats since 2016 faster than Republicans have registered in regions with a right-wing bias. And race to Congress right now neck and neck…

Virginia and New Mexico

Demographics continue the trend towards democratization in Virginia. Compared to 2016, the state has almost as many whites with and without college degrees as the population of Asian Americans continues to grow. In 2016, 40% of the state’s voters were Hispanic, according to New Mexico data. exit polls…

In both states, Biden has two-digit lead in average survey…

What we haven’t changed

Arizona Remains Toss Up, But Biden Has The Edge

Biden has been leading in Arizona since March, but his lead is still quite small. There weren’t a ton of good polls though Fox News Poll Biden climbed 9 points with likely voters. If other polls show similar results, it may be a state that will move to the Lean D column.

Trump and Biden change positions in Georgia

Little has changed in Georgia. The state remains close. Biden was slightly ahead in mid-July, but Trump is now ahead of him, returning to where he was at the start of the year.

Iowa remains Lean R

Iowa has retreated a couple of points on average in Trump’s favor, although Trump and Biden are within 2 points of each other. While polls show statistical parity, Trump has won here, and this is a state with a high white population with no college degrees, giving Trump an edge at the moment.

Supporters of President Trump hold placards as they campaign indoors on Sunday in Henderson, Nevada. Nevada is the state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016, but Trump is trying to turn it around.

Ethan Miller / Getty Images

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Supporters of President Trump hold placards as they campaign indoors on Sunday in Henderson, Nevada. Nevada is the state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016, but Trump is trying to turn it around.

Ethan Miller / Getty Images

Ohio Stays Toss Up But We Stare

There aren’t many polls in Ohio, but Trump got about 4 points in polls over the past couple of months, which gives him a very slight edge. Trump won it in 2016, and given the large number of whites with no college degrees, Ohio remains a state where Trump could have an edge.

Pennsylvania Remains as Lean D

The poll average shows the race has tightened by a few points, but Biden is still ahead. Better polls showed a larger lead than the average. This tightening will need to be watched to see if Trump makes further gains in the next couple of weeks.

Texas remains Lean R

According to polls, Trump and Biden are statistically equal in Texas. And Biden still trumps Clinton in 2016. But there weren’t many good polls in this state; no Democrat has won a state presidential election since 1976; and Texas did not elect a Democrat to the state since 1994… Let’s see where the race will be in a couple of weeks with the best poll.

Wisconsin Remains Toss Up

Right now, according to polls, this state may be the top of the scale for Biden, but Marquette Law School Survey made an interesting conclusion that should worry Democrats: among registered voters, Biden rose by 6 points, but among probable voters, this figure dropped to 4 points. For all the instability in the state at the moment, his past performance in the vote (Trump won it by a slight margin) and the fact that he has one of the highest rates among whites who have not graduated, among vacillating states, he remains in the “draw “. at the moment.

Other places to watch

Kansas, Montana and South Carolina

Let’s be clear: these are still places where Trump is likely to win, but what is remarkable is that in the national climate, in all three cases, Trump’s leadership is in single digits on average across the polls.

To learn more about our methodology and possible paths to victory for Biden and Trump, check out our first analysis of the Electoral College for June…