published on 04.11.2022 03:30

(credit: Cayo Gomez)

Let no one be deceived. The first task of the transition, launched yesterday under the leadership of Vice President-elect Geraldo Alcmina, is to avoid a political and administrative collapse of the federal government due to the policy gap following the election of President Luis Inacio. Lula da Silva means the resumption of a national project focused on three main areas: building an expanded democratic state open to public participation; resumption of development in the new conditions of sustainability in a globalized economy; and fighting inequalities to eradicate poverty and promote social inclusion. Bolsonaro’s government had diametrically opposed goals.

What is the real basis for the collapse not to happen? First, a dialogue between those leaving and those entering to establish baseline levels of cooperation. In a sense, the meeting between President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) after his call to truck drivers to clear the roads and Alcmine was auspicious, whatever the conversation was about.

With the electoral defeat, Bolsonaro’s government ended, but his term had not yet expired. A minimum of understanding is needed, even knowing that there will be no dialogue between the current president and the successor due to the absolute incompatibility of geniuses, as the late composer Aldir Blanc would say. All signs of Bolsonaro are that he does not intend to hand over Lula’s flag to the Palacio do Planalto. From an institutional point of view, this is just a symbolic gesture. The PT will be approved by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) and sworn in by Congress.

institutions

Secondly, collapse can be avoided, since the main functions of the state are provided by bodies in charge of regulating, collecting and enforcing rules that not only follow the political orientation of the President of the Republic, but also the rules established by Congress. , which are resolved in contentious cases by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). The electoral process over a very turbulent year has confirmed what was said earlier: we have strong institutions that have resisted the persecution of sectors that defend the authoritarian regime.

In areas important to the functioning of government, a stable and well-trained bureaucracy carries out public administration under the guise of ethics and responsibility. Exceptions are already known and their actors identified. They are unable to prevent the transition to the collapse of these most important activities, including the protection of order.

Thirdly, the existence of a political class whose ability to survive and adapt to circumstances was once again proven in the elections. The strength of the Centrão parties is undeniable, which will require tough negotiations on sensitive budget issues. Where there is politics, there is hope for negotiated and positive solutions.

According to Alkmina, there will be continuity, planning and transparency in the transition, which means press access to the negotiations and monitoring of public opinion. The crux of the matter is to find a balance between financial responsibility and the most urgent social demands, including the maintenance of Auxílio Brasil in the amount of 600 reais, which is not budgeted for in 2023.

Lula won’t have the traditional 100-day truce to settle in the Planalto Palace and start ruling. He was elected by a narrow margin, his victory continues to be contested by a significant portion of Bolsonaro’s voters, some because they are ideologically far right, others because they are purple anti-PT. A reversal of the expectations he created on the campaign trail, along with those most in need of federal support, could quickly change the balance of political power, transforming the “I was happy and didn’t know” feeling that boomeranged him back to power.

What is the antidote for this? This is not a populist policy, because these revenues were practically depleted by Bolsonaro during the election campaign, on which he spent much more than he should have. The real antidote is building a government with a broad democratic coalition, Lula’s personal and incommunicable task. The first signs that the new government will be of this nature are visible: the broad composition of the transitional group, negotiations with the leaders of Centrão, the recognition of the alliance with the parties and the refusal to co-opt its members to create a new government.

Lula is an experienced political leader with negotiating skills. He knows perfectly well what mistakes he made in power. The logic is not to repeat them.

The leadership of the PT, led during the transition by Glasey Hoffmann and Aloizio Mercadante, also has political and administrative experience. He knows that it is not worth elbowing allies to take all the seats in the future government, since they already have the presidency and control over the most strategic and important positions.