Oliver Wyman, a consultant, estimates that European civil aviation will suffer from a shortage of pilots as early as next year, and believes that this trend will worsen by the end of the decade.
According to his research, more than 790 pilots will be absent from European airlines in 2022, and in 2023 there will be a shortage of almost 2,300 such specialists. It is predicted that 3,900 pilots will be needed in Europe alone in 2029.
Despite everything, the consultant said in a statement, the continent is the third region in the world that suffers the least from a shortage of civil aviation pilots. By the end of the decade, he said, there will be a shortage of 22,670 pilots in the Asia-Pacific region, 20,600 in North America and 12,400 in the Middle East. In total, he estimates that around 60,000 pilots work in civil aviation worldwide.
After the pandemic affected pilot needs following a sharp cut in air travel (in 2020, there were 23,376 pilots stranded in Europe alone), passenger recovery will begin in early 2022, he says, Oliver Wyman said.
Recalling that the demand for pilots is driven more by the number of aircraft departures than by the number of passengers, he notes that the aircraft fleet has already recovered 76% from its covid-19 level. The number in China already reaches 99%.
In 2019, the consultant recalls that he recognized the risk of a shortage of qualified pilots for various reasons: either because many professionals are reaching retirement age, or because of the increased demand for air travel.
“The pandemic crisis has highlighted the cyclical nature of the profession, with many pilots being laid off due to sudden flight cuts, while many others were left in a situation of economic instability, which contradicts the traditional image of a stable, profitable company. And an attractive career,” the press release said. where he recalls that the COVID-19 crisis has also forced many airlines to interrupt training programs for new pilots.
“The speed at which airlines can resume their operations will depend on the speed with which they resume and consolidate their pilots,” said the management consulting company.
