The political future of Joao Doria – Carlos Eduardo Borenstein

The decision announced by the former Governor of São Paulo (SP) João Doria (PSDB) to withdraw from the provisional candidacy for the Palacio do Planalto not only affects the national scenario, but is mainly a controversy for the SP government. In addition, Doria’s political future is surrounded by unknowns.

Without Doria as a presidential candidate, governor and re-election candidate Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) will have more freedom to try to create his own brand for his government, trying to convince the electoral market that he is different from Joao. Doria. Behind this strategic move is Garcia’s desire to move on from Doria’s abrupt rejection.

However, Rodrigo Garcia’s two main opponents – former mayor Fernando Haddad (Portugal) and former minister Tarcicio de Freitas (Republicans) – will strengthen Garcia’s connection with Doria in their narratives.

Another obstacle that could arise for Garcia is if Doria wants to run, for example, for the post of federal deputy or the Senate. Having abandoned his national project, the former governor went abroad and upon his return to the country will be able to declare his political destiny. Doria’s senatorial candidacy seems unlikely, as the former governor is unlikely to be elected. The candidacy for federal deputies should not be ruled out, although it is unlikely. Thus, it is likely that Doria will return to work in the private sector, at least for the time being.

To prevent Joao Doria from becoming a candidate in the October elections, the allies are putting forward, for example, a possible new candidacy of Doria for the post of mayor of the SP in the 2024 elections.

If he becomes a candidate in 2024, Doria could cause a split in the ranks of Mayor Ricardo Nunez (MDB), who must seek a new term. It is worth recalling that Nunez took office in 2021, following the death of the then mayor, Bruno Covas (PSDB).

Joao Doria was first elected mayor of Sao Paulo in the 2016 elections. However, the toucan left his post in 2018 to run specifically for the Palacio dos Bandeirantes.

In 2022, he stepped down as governor of São Paulo after winning the PSDB primaries against Eduardo Leite and became the party’s candidate for President of the Republic.

While Joao Doria’s allies are defending a new mayoral candidate, the former governor has obstacles ahead. In addition to the desire on the part of PSDB to follow Ricardo Nunez, there is another strong candidate on the board of directors: Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), who will run for federal deputy and should aim to be elected mayor in 2024. It is worth remembering that in the 2020 elections, Boulos was surprised when he reached the second round and was defeated by Bruno Covas, who won re-election in that dispute.