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The gap in Trump-European relations turned into a cliff
However, others admit privately that if Brussels wanted to make the pill more suitable for an American audience, they could add a layer of sugar. “In the past, I could see that we might not include China to keep the US happy,” said an EU diplomat who was not authorized to speak in the notes on how the decision was made.
One way that according to Brussels can distance itself from DC is by engaging with China as a strategic and economic partner, reducing its dependence on one of the world’s superpowers by balancing its relationship with the others.
“Knowing what we know about Chinese data, how it behaved during the pandemic and the attitude of the White House, I think in other worlds we will hold it back,” the diplomat said. The other world he meant wasn’t just the world before Trump came to power.
A Brussels official who worked on EU foreign policy but was not authorized to speak on notes said the shift from Europe as a geopolitical priority began under former US president Barack Obama.
“Obama does not have this close interest in the Middle East with the previous president, which is geographically more of a European problem. And he is shifting his priorities from Europe to China and Asia,” the official said.
However, longtime observers of the alliance accept that it has been tense for the past four years – and will continue to worsen if Donald Trump defeats former vice president Joe Biden in this year’s US election. “Trump considers the European Union, especially Germany, an economic and trade rival, which means tensions can be expected if he gets a second term,” said Velina Tchakarova, from the Austrian Institute for European Policy and Security.
He said that when the European Union took steps towards “building stronger autonomy in the field of security and defense,” Trump tried to “weaken such efforts through his attacks on European NATO members as well as through economic and trade measures. “
The Brussels official explained that “Trump’s escape from multilateralism” on major international issues such as Iran, coupled with the US taking “less responsibility in European security” has accelerated European thought to take steps away from America and “do our own thing in the world stage . “
The characterization of hostile US governments who do not want to work with Europeans is recognized by EU diplomats. “The problem is, officials in DC who want to work with Europe, when they are in contact, don’t have the mandate from the government to get involved in a serious way. They last as long as they can but if we get both Trump terms, then we’re in big trouble.”
This, according to Tchakarova, is why “EU institutions and the leaders of member states hope that Joe Biden will be elected in November … he supports multilateralism and his hope is that he will strengthen ties between the US and Europe.”
CNN approached a number of officials from EU institutions and diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic to comment. Most refused to comment; some admit that they believe this is the problem. A European diplomat said: “We will dance with anyone on the dance floor, but it doesn’t take genius to see that EU-US cooperation is currently performing poorly.”
Asked to comment on the potential pivot by the EU which is far from its historical ties with the US, a State Department spokesman said: “The United States and the European Union share a strong and enduring partnership based on general democratic values and governance, respect for human rights “and the rule of law, deep economic ties and a commitment to transatlantic prosperity and security. This longstanding partnership is very important because we coordinate a number of international efforts.”
However, a potential Biden victory will not provide a quick fix for the transatlantic partnership. “The real question is not whether you can get the relationship back where it came from, but if we can persuade the US to rejoin the Western order,” the EU diplomat said.
“The US and EU geopolitical pivots about Asia, the Middle East and trade have each started. The difference now is that we think the West should pivot as one.”
And even if Biden returns to Obama’s European policy, there is no guarantee that within four years he will not be replaced by someone even more radical than Trump. “The fundamental shift that is happening in the US will probably remain and we have to adjust, make the best of the relationships we can. These shifts, they are structural and they are not just based on one person,” Brussels officials said.
Of course, all this does not mean that the transatlantic alliance will cease to be important. This will remain the center of what the West represents, and the US will always be a more important ally for Europe than China before. In addition, the EU’s big plan to engage more with China was dealt a major blow by the outbreak of Covid-19.
However, a fading layer of warmth – with Europe looking for a new place on the world stage as the global role of the US becomes even more unpredictable – can only be seen as good news for those whose historic Western powers banded together to fight not so long ago.
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