Politics
The dollar is falling after yesterday’s sharp rise, but the climate remains tense due to high political risk.
The dollar is falling after yesterday’s sharp rise, but the climate remains tense due to high political risk.
Luana Maria Benedito
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – The dollar was falling, but this Thursday morning it continued to trade around R $ 5.30 and investors believe it has room to hit even higher levels amid strong domestic institutional tensions that have recently exacerbated The most President Jair Bolsonaro’s aggressive speech.
At 10:18 am, the dollar was down 0.44% to hit R $ 5.3004 on sale. Although it was in negative territory for most of the morning, the dollar briefly traded higher, hitting R $ 5.3350 on a sell (+ 0.21%) session in the session high, reaching around 9:40 am.
On B3, dollar futures fell 0.39% to R $ 5.313.
According to Vanya Nagema, responsible for exchange bureau Terra Investimentos, the drop in the dollar seen at the start of business on Tuesday will only be a small profit-taking, while the market climate remains extremely pessimistic.
“I think today is going to be a nervous day, the same political pressure will continue” the day before, when the dollar jumped 2.84% to close to R $ 5.3236, the highest daily percentage gain since June 24, 2020 (+ 3.33%).
Against the backdrop of institutional uncertainty generated by “arm wrestling” between powers, “the market trend will be even higher and in the short term, the dollar may fall to 5.40 reais,” Nagem said.
Marcos Weigt, head of Treasury at Travelex Bank, agrees that tensions in Brasilia should continue to hamper real capital returns. “I find it very difficult for the dollar to stay below R $ 5.30 in the short term, unless there is a major game change in politics,” he said.
According to him, if it were not for the intensive cycle of raising interest rates by the Central Bank, which increases the attractiveness of a real carry-trade strategy, the dollar would have been at an even higher level.
Investors, who have been wary of the domestic scenario for weeks amid concerns about the government’s ability to meet its commitments and meet the budget ceiling, have increased their vigilance following Bolsonaro’s speech in the Sept. 7 acts.
On this occasion, Bolsonaro attacked in front of supporters the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Alexander de Moraes and Luis Roberto Barroso and threatened to defy the decision, saying that he would never be arrested by “villains.” Bolsonaro reiterated that he would only leave the presidency “in captivity, dead or victorious.”
Raising concerns in the markets, truck drivers stopped traffic on roads in support of the government at dawn in several Brazilian states. The president will meet with this category this morning Thursday, Bolsonaro told supporters.
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Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
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The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
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The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
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