The British government should impose tighter restrictions to slow the growth of the Omicron variant and prevent further increases in hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19, British scientists say.
A study by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predicts that the new variant could cause 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in the UK over the next five months, unless stricter restrictions are adopted.
The study points to a new wave of infections with more infections and hospitalizations than was reported in January this year when the Delta variant appeared, and suggests that the Omicron variant may become the most dominant variant in England in a few days.
The UK reported 58,194 cases on Friday, the highest rate since January, although it is not known how many of them are from the Omicron variant.
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In their forecasts, the experts worked on two possible scenarios: a “more optimistic” scenario, in which Omicron might not hit the immune system so hard, and booster doses of vaccinations would be more effective, and a “more pessimistic” scenario.
The number of infections will depend on the degree of protection of the vaccine against the new variant and the associated booster doses, which remains unknown.
In the first case, 2,000 hospitalizations per day are expected, for a total of 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths by the end of April.
If measures are taken at the beginning of the year, such as limiting hospitalizations, closing some entertainment venues, and increasing bandwidth when people gather, the wave could be controlled and the number of hospitalizations to 53,000 and deaths to 7,600 reduced.
On the worst trajectory, scientists predict a surge in hospital admissions, double the number in January this year, to a total of 492,000 and 74,800 deaths.
Under stricter restrictions, the peak hospital admissions may be lower than the last peak of the pandemic.
The study recalls that these opportunities only apply when other measures than current ones are not being taken, such as using masks indoors, presenting digital certificates of vaccination when entering nightlife venues, and working from home whenever possible. …
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in early 2022 will be mitigated through light control measures such as working from home,” said Rosanna Barnard of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while “the most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to put up with tougher restrictions so that (the health service) is not overwhelmed. “
The expert acknowledged that “no one wants a new conclusion,” but extreme measures may be required if Ómicron is more infectious, and stressed that political leaders “must consider all the social consequences of measures, not just epidemiological ones.”
Boris Johnson’s government has no plans to take stricter measures, but will offer a booster dose of vaccine to citizens over 18 by the end of January.
