SAO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) – The proportion of Brazilians looking to buy real estate has declined slightly since its peak late last year, and the political and economic environment is influencing this decision, according to a survey conducted by the Strategic Brain Intelligence Consultation.
Before the pandemic, the consumer intent index was 43%. It fell to 20% in April 2020, then reached 46% in November and is now 39%.
The survey also indicates that for just over half of the country’s 1,200 respondents, there are factors that can hinder buying intentions. Inflation is cited as 45% as one of these factors, followed by a difficult political and economic scenario, mainly due to the 2022 elections (31%), the unemployment rate (24%) and the rise in interest rates for funding (20%). ) and low economic growth (19%). Only 10% of respondents mentioned a pandemic.
Fabio Araujo, managing partner of Brain, notes that the political environment was more important than factors that directly influence the purchase, such as raising interest rates. “It shows that there was a yellow light [para o consumidor]”He says.
In his opinion, inflation and other economic problems can be mitigated in the coming months, while the political environment will be present before the elections, it is simply not known whether it will carry more or less weight in the minds of those who want to buy real estate. …
Araujo emphasizes that the poll was conducted between August 30 and September 11, when the political crisis was fueled by the Independence Day protests. “It has always been hot in Brazil in recent years, but this period before the letter to Bolsonaro was the most hectic,” he says.
Inflation is also getting more consumer attention than high interest rates – this Wednesday (22) the Selic rate fell from 5.25% to 6.25% per annum and is expected to reach 8.25% in December.
“People don’t look directly at interest rates, it’s harder to interpret if the rate goes between 7% and 9%, there doesn’t seem to be much difference as inflation is more direct,” says Araujo. “Every time you go to the market, you see that everything rises in price, naturally, that there is less money left and your mood drops.”
When asked if they have investment property, 31% of respondents answered in the affirmative, and 16% said they would like to. For 50%, the main motivation is to generate rental income, for 42% it is to ensure the preservation of the cost of capital, and for 8% it is the appraisal of the property for future resale.
Araujo says the 8% rate is a positive sign. “It’s great, shows maturity, a market for non-speculative investors,” he says. “When the percentage of people willing to resell exceeds 15%, it may cause some price spike with a fall in the medium term.”
Even with the increase in work and study at home during the pandemic, only 9% said they were seriously considering moving home. The proportion of those who renovated their home in the last 12 months was higher, 25%, and 27% said they want to renovate their home in the next 12 months.
Even with rising inflation and interest rates, developers are confident that Abrainc (the Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers) has released the Abrainc-Fipe indicator, compiled from 18 partners, sales and launches in the first half of the year, which shows a recovery from 2020. …
In the first six months of 2021, 74,438 units were sold, up 26% from the first half of 2020 – a period during which months without the effects of the pandemic were combined with a moment of more severe economic constraints.
Over the same period, output increased by 61.7%, reaching 61,199 units. It was the semester with the best sales and launch results since the start of the historical indicator series in 2014.
For the rest of the year, the company predicts 40% growth in launches and 30% sales across all segments compared to 2020.
According to Abrainc President Luis França, the increase in the base interest rate will not affect the attractiveness of real estate financing and will not affect sales. “Interest rates on real estate loans remain low and the sector remains attractive both for investment and for those interested in purchasing their own home,” he says.
The popular segment of real estate included in the Casa Verde e Amarela program accounted for 75.7% of launches and 82.7% of sales between June 2020 and 2021.
On the 13th, the FGTS (Service Time Guarantee Fund) Board of Trustees announced an update to the price cap that can be set for properties to participate in the program. The increase is 15% for cities with 50,000 to 100,000 inhabitants and 10% for municipalities with 20,000 to 50,000 inhabitants and more than 100,000 inhabitants.
In Sao Paulo, Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro, for example, the ceiling rose from R $ 240,000 to R $ 264,000.
By the end of 2022, interest rates for group 3 of the program for those who earn between R $ 4,000 and R $ 7,000 and are holders of FGTS quotas also decreased by 0.5 percentage points.
The move was highly anticipated in the real estate industry, which has already highlighted the difficulty of maintaining the classification of properties in the program, given inflation in construction – the INCC (National Building Cost Index) has risen 17.35% over the past 12 months.
Alternatively, companies are looking to expand production for consumers with higher incomes: commissioning of medium and high-class facilities between June 2020 and 2021 grew by 113.7%, and affordable housing – by 21.1%.
“The increase in the ceiling, which has not been adjusted since 2017, will allow for a large number of projects that can no longer be included in the program due to the sharp increase in costs,” says Fransa.
