No one dares to say with complete certainty, but the polling figures and the interpretation of the movements a little more than three months before the elections rule out or at least reduce the possibility that the conflict will no longer focus on Luiz Inácio Lula yes. Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
It is precisely the time before elections that prompts caution, as polls like Datafolha’s at the end of June indicate trends at the time they were taken, but, as the cliché goes, they do not replace poll results.
Other deadlines reinforce the diagnosis that new favorites are unlikely to emerge, while also calling into question Bolsonaro’s recovery conditions and Lula’s ability to manage his advantage.
Comparisons with previous presidential races make this year’s race unique in many ways, but it is a reminder of a constant risk: the hypothesis of the unexpected and even the exceptional, such as Bolsonaro’s blow in 2018.
“Given only the usual elements of market analysis, it is difficult to imagine any changes in the scenario,” says political scientist Carolina de Paula. “Only if we consider external events like stabbings and the like,” she continues, referring to Uerj (Rio State University).
Even with the hardships caused by the wall, the sum of 75% of the intentions to vote for Lulu (47%) and Bolsonaro (28%), presidential candidates such as Ciro Gomes (PDT, 8%), Andre Janones (Avante, 2%). ) and Simona Tebet (MDB, 1%) remain hopeful that there is a long way to go before October 2nd.
Ciro uses the analogy that the votes that could have fallen into his hands are being held up today between the undecided and undecided voters of the two leaders. According to him, the population is in a “state of numbness and fear”, but will wake up.
In the same vein, Janones says that the vote will be decided at the last stage and that this will provoke a search for options. A federal MP from the state of Minas Gerais argues that people are hostage to the obligation to choose the least worse, but that will change.
Tebet tried to prove himself with a message of hope and appeasement. Chosen as the Third Path Poor Consensus Candidate, she is unknown to 77% of the population. The challenge is to rise in the polls and be seen as a viable alternative.
The strategists of these campaigns resort to several arguments to support the idea that nothing guarantees that Lula will either be elected in the first round or will necessarily compete with Bolsonaro in the second. This, of course, does not count the threat of an electoral coup by the incumbent president.
Free advertising on radio and TV (which will run from August 26 to September 29), electorate fatigue from the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro and the late awakening of part of the electorate for elections and the availability of options are cited. as possible turning points.
There are still those betting on Bolsonaro and Lula’s massive rejection (today 55% and 35% respectively) as a trigger for a reversal. Experts meet all assumptions with skepticism.
“Polls show a crystallization of the feeling that the competition will be between the two and that it will be necessary to keep one of them,” says Karolina.
The widespread use of social media, spurred on by the Bolsonaro, contributes to a permanent election climate, unlike the past, she said. The new reality tends to blur the importance of mandatory advertising in traditional media.
Predictions of the sustainability of the scenario are also based on the anticipation of the pre-election debate – first by a presidential mandate, and then by the rehabilitation of a member of the PT – and the unprecedented antagonism between charismatic politicians already in office. and can be evaluated empirically.
“Anything other than a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro seems increasingly unlikely to me,” says Humberto Dantas, coordinator of the graduate program in political science at the Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo. “With what we have today, there is little room for another phenomenon.”
For the researcher, the picture is nothing but a reflection of the national policy of recent years, in which the force of attraction of both prevailed. The inability of the centre-right to create a credible alternative has something to do with this.
At the same time, in the 2018 and 2014 elections, electoral intentions were more dispersed among the main candidates, which meant there was a greater chance of hesitation, falls and overtakes.
In the race four years ago, there was still a spoiling element on the horizon, the exchange of Lula, who was then arrested and denied entry, for Fernando Haddad on the PT ticket.
The wave of underdogs and political renewal attributed to Bolsonaro has since subsided, as the 2020 municipal elections showed, dictated by powers such as governance experience.
This leads analysts to disapprove of comparisons to the succession of 2018 winning governors such as Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Wilson Witzel (PSC-RJ), who have been swept away by the Boltonar turmoil. It is clear that the reality is different now, both at the state and federal levels.
The combination of features leads to an assessment that the official campaign period is unlikely to undermine the permanence of Lula and Bolsonaro at the forefront. However, variations in their percentage due to predictable attacks from both sides are not ruled out.
“If Bolsonaro can create a miracle, he will have a chance to win. Otherwise, he will have to face great difficulties and he will have to rely on luck,” says sociologist and political scientist Antonio Lavareda from the Ipespe Research Institute.
History, he notes, shows that presidential candidates who have turned the tables have used trump cards (as in the case of Fernando Enrique Cardoso and the Real Plan in 1994), godfathers (Dilma Rousseff and Lula’s backing in 2010), or exceptional circumstances. (attack on Bolsonaro). who singled it out).
In the fight to stay in office until 2026, the chief executive is resorting to pre-election measures to try to cushion the effects of the economic crisis, which is more than the central agenda for this election. The big question is whether these gestures will have a short-term effect and affect the vote.
For analysts, Bolsonaro’s situation is critical because of this bias, but somewhat comfortable given the fact that he has a 25% to 30% vote intent and is not in danger of being squeezed out of second place by other rivals.
Variables in the presidential race
what’s posted today
- Lula and Bolsonaro stack up together 75% of intent votes in the first roundwhile third place, Ciro Gomez, has 8%, according to Datafolha.
- Lula reaches 37% in spontaneous studies and jumps to 47% in incentivized (when applicants’ names are submitted). Bolsonaro rose from 25% to 28%.
- 70% of voters say they already fully resolved about their vote, according to Datafolha. The percentage is even higher among the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro (80%).
- Determined to vote despite a series of setbacks, Bolsonaro 55% failure whoever voted for him at all, a stable exchange rate since March
What else can change
- 27% of voters in a spontaneous poll say not knowing who to vote for, a rate that drops to 4% during the stimulation period. Zeros and spaces make up 7%. For 29%, their current choice may change
- The Ciro and Tebet campaigns are betting on official campaign periodwhich will last a month and a half, starting on August 16, to convince doubters and hook more voters
- opponents of the project polarization selector fatigue between Lula and Bolsonaro, which would lead to the search for other options, but both still represent the right base
- Tebet and Janones familiar by 23% and 25% of voters, respectively, and expect to increase these figures in order to strengthen their intentions to vote.
- leave the decision to vote for last hour has been a common occurrence in recent years, but analysts believe the scenario has crystallized early this time, contributing to a useful vote.
Doubts that hover
- Bolsonaro will be able to catch his breath with pre-election activities try to lower fuel prices and increase Auxílio Brasil from 400 reais to 600 reais?
- Alternative candidates will attract the attention of the voter and strengthen their indices a little over a month official campaign and schedule on TV and radio?
- Candidates like Ciro, Tebet and Janones will seduce voters and growth in the polls to the extent of avoiding Lula’s victory in the first round or knocking Bolsonaro out of the second?
- A little surprise could it spoil the scenario, whether it be a change in the list of competitors, a change in the mood of the electorate, or some other event from the realm of the incomprehensible?
- An official campaign in which candidates exalt their virtues and attack rivals, significant influence performances by Lula and Bolsonaro?
