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Remember Brexit? Why Britain can really struggle to get out of recession

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But Britain is also racing to a self-determined deadline to establish a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, the largest single market for exports, by the end of the year. The talks are not going well – increasing the likelihood of other major shocks such as an economic recovery that is expected to gain momentum.

“The whole world is progressing in recession because of coronavirus,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. “But Britain has an additional problem in the UK-EU negotiations in the second half of this year.”

Even without considering the implications of Brexit, the British economy is in trouble.

The Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy could shrink 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a 15% decline in 1706, based on the best estimate of the bank’s historical data. GDP could fall 25% in the three months to the end of June.

Data released by the British government in recent days has been dire. Claims for unemployment benefits jumped 69% to nearly 2.1 million last month. Inflation in April, meanwhile, fell for the third consecutive month to 0.8%, raising concerns that prices could enter a damaging downward spiral.

Non-essential restaurants and shops remain closed, and economists are not convinced that activities will be taken as soon as they are reopened.

Shutters closed in closed tourist shops in London on May 12.
The grim atmosphere was reflected on Wednesday when the British government sold its first bonds with negative results. This shows that demand is so high that investors are basically willing to pay the British government to lend money.

Gilts, as is known, is considered a safe haven asset, along with US, Japanese and German government bonds; Rising demand indicates that investors are worried that economic growth will remain depressed.

“The market reflects the economic reality, namely that the economy has collapsed,” said Robert Wood, chief economist at the UK at Bank of America.

The British pound has fallen more than 8% since the beginning of the year to less than $ 1.22, and has also fallen more than 5% against Euro currency. That FTSE 100 (UKX) the index in London has lost more than 21% year-to-date, compared to nearly 9% for the S&P 500, while the FTSE 250 index of British medium-sized companies dropped by more than 26%.

Trying to stem extensive economic damage, the British government borrowed £ 62.1 billion ($ 75.7 billion) in April, the highest level since records began in 1993. The government now projects it will need to borrow £ 298.4 billion ($ 363 , 3 billion) until March 2021, almost double the height of the global financial crisis.

And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey even hinted this week that official interest rates – currently 0.1% – could be negative for the first time in British history. His comments have prompted speculation that banks can choose negative interest rates by 2021, if the economy requires another injection.

“What the Bank of England has done is to abolish interest rate policies, so you can’t assume they won’t cut” below zero, “Wood said. “That said, clearly negative rates are one of the last resorts here.”

Brexit clock ticking

The risk they might need increases because British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to break new British relations with the European Union by the end of 2020, after leaving the bloc in January.

Failure to reach an agreement can expose British companies to steep new tariffs, threaten their supply chains and do so their products and services are more expensive at the worst time. Britain has until 30 June to request an extension of the deadline, but the Johnson government has consistently said it does not want to do this.

The conversation did not go well. Michel Barnier, head of the EU Brexit negotiator, said last week that he was “not optimistic” about reaching an agreement with Britain, adding that the European Union would increase preparations for this year to end without new trade conditions.

The head of Britain’s Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said in a letter to Barnier on Tuesday that the European Union offered “a relatively low-quality trade agreement.”

Without agreement, the industry has been hit hard the pandemic will be even worse.
David Henig, a former trade negotiator and director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, said in twitter Thursday that a 10% tariff for cars sent to the European Union will enter if an agreement is not reached, threatening at least £ 15 billion ($ 18.3 billion) in exports.

Pickering from Berenberg Bank is concerned that the running hours at the Brexit talks could create problems for Britain in the second half of the year, when economic growth is intended to take back.

Household spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP in the UK, will determine the trajectory of the UK recovery, he said. When the lockdown is over, the concern is that Britons will continue to save because of anxiety about their work or a second wave of infections, limiting the impact of government and central bank relief efforts.

Uncertainty related to Brexit will only encourage it exaggerated savings, according to Pickering.
British car sales fell 97% in the worst month since 1946

Even if Britain reaches a new trade agreement with the European Union, it is will not benefit like the old regime. Johnson pushed for an agreement that would allow Britain to also reach agreements with trading partners such as the United States.

In a draft proposal released by the British government this week, Britain reiterated that it did not want to be part of the EU single market, and instead sought an agreement in accordance with what the bloc already had with Canada or Japan.

“The worsening of your trade terms with the aim of nearly half your exports will be an economic negative,” said Bank of America’s Wood. “[It’s] another reason to expect recovery from this crisis to be a very long U [shape], and not V. “

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar echoed this view on Thursday.

“Brexit will further complicate matters,” Varadkar said. “As I said a few months ago, Brexit isn’t over. It’s just halftime.”

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All Your Acrylic Nail Questions Answered: From Application to Care

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Acrylic nails are a popular choice for those looking to add length, strength, and style to their natural nails. Whether you’re new to the world of acrylics or a seasoned nail enthusiast, there are always questions that arise about the application, maintenance, and overall care of these enhancements. This guide will answer all your acrylic nail questions to ensure your next manicure is a complete success.

What Are Acrylic Nails?

Acrylic nails are artificial nail enhancements made from a mixture of liquid monomer and powder polymer. When combined, they form a hard protective layer that can be molded into various shapes and lengths. Once hardened, they provide a durable and long-lasting canvas for nail polish, art, or simply a natural look. For more in-depth information, check out Acrylic Nail FAQs to get all the details you need before your next salon visit.  

How Are Acrylic Nails Applied?

The application process of acrylic nails begins with the preparation of your natural nails. The nail technician will clean your nails, file them down, and apply a bonding agent to help the acrylic adhere. The acrylic mixture is then applied in thin layers, sculpted to the desired shape, and allowed to dry. Once set, the nails are filed, shaped, and buffed to a smooth finish.

Acrylic nails can be customized in terms of length and shape, making them a versatile choice for anyone looking to enhance their look.

How Long Do Acrylic Nails Last?

Typically, acrylic nails can last anywhere from two to three weeks before requiring a fill. During a fill, the nail technician will replace any grown-out acrylic and maintain the structure of the nails. With proper care, acrylic nails can be worn for extended periods, but it’s essential to give your natural nails a break occasionally to maintain nail health.

How Do You Care for Acrylic Nails?

Caring for acrylic nails is crucial to ensuring they last as long as possible and that your natural nails remain healthy underneath. Here are some essential tips:

  1. Avoid excessive water exposure: Prolonged exposure to water can weaken acrylic nails, making them prone to lifting or damage. When washing dishes or cleaning, consider wearing gloves to protect your nails.
  2. Moisturize cuticles regularly: The acrylic application process can sometimes dry out your cuticles. Regularly apply cuticle oil to keep your cuticles hydrated and prevent hangnails.
  3. Be gentle with your nails: Acrylics can be strong, but they’re not indestructible. Avoid using your nails as tools to open packages or scrape things, as this can lead to breakage.
  4. Schedule regular fills: As your natural nails grow, gaps will appear between the acrylic and your cuticles. Regular fills ensure your nails maintain a smooth, polished look and help prevent lifting.

How Do You Remove Acrylic Nails Safely?

Proper removal is crucial to avoid damaging your natural nails. It’s highly recommended to have acrylics removed by a professional at the salon. However, if you prefer to remove them at home, follow these steps:

  1. Soak in acetone: Start by soaking a cotton ball in acetone, then place it on each nail. Wrap your fingers in aluminum foil and allow the acetone to work for about 20 minutes.
  2. Gently scrape off the acrylic: After soaking, use a cuticle pusher or an orange stick to gently scrape off the softened acrylic. Be patient and avoid forcing the acrylic off, as this can damage your natural nails.
  3. Buff and moisturize: Once the acrylic is completely removed, buff your natural nails to smooth out any rough spots and apply cuticle oil to restore moisture.

Are Acrylic Nails Safe for Your Natural Nails?

When applied and removed properly, acrylic nails should not cause significant damage to your natural nails. However, improper removal or overuse without giving your nails time to breathe can lead to thinning, weakening, or breakage of your natural nails.

If you plan on wearing acrylic nails long-term, it’s a good idea to take breaks between applications and ensure you’re nourishing your nails with oils and treatments.

What Are the Best Acrylic Nail Shapes?

Choosing the right nail shape is essential for creating a look that complements your hands. Some of the most popular acrylic nail shapes include:

– Square: A straight-edged, classic look perfect for shorter nails.

– Oval: A soft, rounded shape that elongates the fingers.

– Coffin: Also known as ballerina shape, this trendy look features a tapered edge with a flat tip.

– Stiletto: A dramatic, pointy shape ideal for those who want a bold statement.

Each shape offers a unique aesthetic and can be tailored to suit your personal style.

Are There Any Alternatives to Acrylic Nails?

If you’re looking for a different type of nail enhancement, consider these alternatives:

– Gel nails: Gel nails offer a glossy finish and are cured under UV or LED light. They’re less rigid than acrylics and can feel more natural.

– Dip powder: This method involves dipping the nails into a colored powder and sealing them with a clear coat. It provides a similar look to acrylics but is generally less damaging to the natural nails.

Conclusion

Acrylic nails are a versatile and durable option for achieving customized, beautiful nails. By understanding the application process, knowing how to care for them, and safely removing them, you can enjoy long-lasting manicures that enhance your style. With the ability to choose from a variety of shapes and designs, acrylic nails offer endless possibilities for self-expression. Remember to take care of your natural nails in between applications to keep them healthy and strong. Whether you’re a first-time user or a seasoned pro, acrylic nails can be a fantastic way to express your personality and keep your nails looking flawless for weeks.

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Jacqueline Troost Omvlee – A Tool in the Hands of the Russian Elite

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When sanctions were imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine, their objectives were twofold: to reduce Russian military capacity by limiting modern weapons and to lower Russian revenue streams. While in the beginning, the sanctions indeed weakened the Russian economy, they have fallen short of their initial objectives – mostly because Russia has found ways to circumvent many of them. The Kremlin has exploited international corruption, relied on foreign third parties, and utilized loopholes in trade restrictions. One such individual who allegedly provides services to Russian-linked companies is Jacqueline Troost Omvlee, a Geneva-based Dutch citizen.

Jacqueline Troost Omvlee is married to Niels Troost, an oil trader sanctioned by the United Kingdom. He and his company, Paramount Energy & Commodities SA, are among the 50 individuals and organizations blacklisted in response to the business connections with Russia. His wife, Jacqueline, helps to facilitate financial transactions for Niles Troost and Russian oligarchs including Gennady Timchenko, a Russian billionaire oil trader and Putin`s close associate.

Gennady Timchenko and his family have been sanctioned in many countries for backing the Kremlin’s war machine. However, with the help of Jacqueline Troost Omvlee, he seems to find ways to evade sanctions and continue his financial operations. In these illegal schemes, individuals like Jacqueline often serve as a front person for sanctioned oligarchs and their business assets. Russian-linked companies set up subsidiaries around the world, often registering new entities in offshore havens or countries where regulations are relatively lax or non-existent. To obfuscate the arrangements, the daughter companies spawn offspring in the form of subsidiaries, as the chain of concealment stretches on and on. The result is like a giant Matryoshka doll.

Jacqueline’s involvement in financial transactions that potentially support Timchenko’s interests raises significant concerns about the efficacy of Western sanctions. The fact that Jacqueline Troost Omvlee continues to operate without facing sanctions herself highlights a significant loophole in the enforcement mechanism. Various shady schemes and tactics designed to circumvent sanctions often hide the activity of individuals such as Jacqueline, making it difficult for authorities to detect and punish them for their involvement.

Jacqueline Troost Omvlee’s role in her husband’s financial dealings as well as her alleged ties to Russian business schemes, emphasizes the need for stronger international sanctions. Her actions not only aid in sanctions evasion but also diminish the overall effectiveness of the measures designed to isolate and pressure those supporting the Russian regime. Therefore, sanctioning Jacqueline Troost Omvlee is not only a matter of addressing her individual actions but also a necessary step to reinforce the credibility and effectiveness of the sanctions regime. By targeting individuals who play a key role in evading sanctions, authorities can send a strong message that efforts to undermine international sanctions will not go unpunished. This measure is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the sanctions system and ensuring that it achieves its intended goal of isolating and restraining those who support destabilizing activities.

European countries and the US need to expand their sanctions-tracking and investigative actions to improve the monitoring of sanctions compliance and to introduce new measures against systematic violators of law. The sanctioning states have the resources and capacity for this, and need to take action now.

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Hermann’s Tortoise Lifespan: How to Ensure a Long, Healthy Life

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Ensuring a long and healthy life for your Hermann’s Tortoise requires a combination of proper care, nutrition, and habitat management. Hermann’s Tortoises, known for their charming personalities and distinctive shells, can live for several decades with the right conditions. Understanding their needs and providing a suitable environment is key to helping them thrive. Here’s how you can support your Hermann’s Tortoise in living a long, happy life.

Creating an Optimal Habitat

One of the most critical factors in promoting the longevity of your Hermann’s Tortoise is the creation of a suitable habitat. Providing an environment that mimics their natural surroundings is essential for their overall health. An appropriate habitat helps prevent stress and supports their well-being. For detailed guidance on setting up an ideal habitat, including specific requirements for outdoor enclosures, visit this comprehensive guide on Habitat for Hermann’s Tortoise.

  1. Outdoor Enclosure: Hermann’s Tortoises thrive in outdoor enclosures that provide ample space to roam, bask, and forage. An outdoor setup should include a secure, predator-proof area with access to natural sunlight. Incorporate areas for basking and shade to allow the tortoise to regulate its body temperature. Additionally, include plants, rocks, and hiding spots to simulate their natural habitat and encourage natural behaviors.
  2. Indoor Habitat: If an outdoor enclosure is not feasible, an indoor habitat can also support a long lifespan if set up correctly. Use a large, well-ventilated enclosure with appropriate heating and UVB lighting. Provide a substrate that allows for burrowing and offer various hiding spots and enrichment items.

Diet and Nutrition

A balanced diet is vital for maintaining the health and longevity of your Hermann’s Tortoise. They are primarily herbivores, and their diet should reflect their natural feeding habits.

  1. Leafy Greens: Offer a variety of leafy greens such as kale, collard greens, and dandelion greens. These vegetables provide essential vitamins and minerals that support overall health.
  2. Vegetables and Fruits: Supplement their diet with other vegetables like carrots, squash, and bell peppers. Fruits should be given in moderation due to their high sugar content.
  3. Calcium and Supplements: Provide a calcium supplement to support shell and bone health. A cuttlebone or powdered calcium can be added to their food. Ensure that they also have access to fresh, clean water at all times.

Regular Health Checks

Routine health checks are essential for early detection of potential health issues. Regular veterinary visits help ensure your tortoise remains in optimal condition and addresses any health concerns promptly.

  1. Observation: Monitor your tortoise’s behavior and physical condition regularly. Changes in appetite, weight, or activity level can indicate health problems.
  2. Preventative Care: Schedule annual check-ups with a veterinarian experienced in reptile care. Regular exams help catch any issues early and keep vaccinations and other preventative treatments up to date.

Environmental Enrichment

Providing environmental enrichment helps keep your Hermann’s Tortoise mentally stimulated and active. Enrichment can reduce stress and prevent boredom, contributing to a better quality of life.

  1. Foraging Opportunities: Hide food items around the enclosure to encourage natural foraging behavior. This not only provides mental stimulation but also mimics their natural hunting practices.
  2. Variety: Change the layout of their enclosure periodically and introduce new objects or plants to keep their environment interesting and engaging.

Conclusion

By focusing on creating the right habitat, providing a balanced diet, ensuring regular health checks, and offering environmental enrichment, you can significantly enhance the lifespan and well-being of your Hermann’s Tortoise. For further details on creating an ideal habitat, including tips for designing an outdoor enclosure, refer to this helpful guide on Habitat for Hermann’s Tortoise. Implementing these practices will help ensure that your tortoise enjoys a long, healthy life.

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